Mar302016
How to earn huge profits on distressed residential properties
Buying distressed residential properties, fixing them up, and holding them through the recovery is a great way to earn huge profits.
I am a big fan of buy-and-hold residential real estate, but that isn’t the only way to make money from this asset class. Home flipping is one extreme, and permanent buy-and-hold is another. But is there anything in between?
Yes, buying distressed properties and selling them when the economic cycle is most favorable is a viable investment strategy. However, the analysis is more complex, and timing is critical to the strategy’s success.
The two extremes of flipping or buy-and-hold are much easier to analyze and execute. When flipping, an investor needs to know the after-repair-value and the cost of renovation to determine the most they could pay for the property and still make a good flip profit. For insulation concerns, you can navigate to this site.
When investing to hold, and investor needs to know the total cost to bring the property to rentable condition and the amount of rent they can obtain from the property to ensure it provides the desired rate of return.
While the calculations for each of these methods are different, they both benefit from the virtue of simplicity. Once investors enter the no-man’s land in between these extremes, the analysis gets much more complicated.
Timing the Economic Cycle
Buying distressed properties for maximum gain requires timing the purchase and subsequent sale to take advantage of the broader economic cycle. It isn’t a strategy that can be executed in any market at any time with a reasonable expectation of success. Realistically, we are already past the point of entry for this kind of trade in our current economic cycle, but it’s a strategy worth learning to implement during the next economic downturn.
To make the most from this strategy, investors want to focus on properties that have extremely high vacancy rates, mostly due to the economic conditions rather than serious defects with the properties. While it’s still possible to profit from distressed properties during the expansion phase of the economic cycle, it’s much more difficult to find good deals, and these often require extensive renovations, limiting their appeal to contractors and rehabbers.
How Vacancy Works
The value of any property is the discounted value of future cashflows. However, during economic downturns, people tend to underestimate the future value, and during expansions, they tend to overestimate them. This strategy takes advantage of people’s natural tendency to extrapolate short-term trends to infinity.
My buy-and-hold strategy is to buy properties that rent to the 25% to 40% of the median income in the area. At these price levels, rents are generally higher than apartments, and the properties are of higher quality. During an economic downturn, these properties don’t experience much problem with vacancy because as a landlord, I can always lower my rent and steal a tenant from an apartment or a lower quality property. Therefore, during downturns, most vacancy gets concentrated at the bottom of the housing market. This is the key to this investment strategy.
When a property is empty and the landlord can’t find a renter, to them, the discounted value of future cashflows is zero. In effect, the only value in the property is the option value of potential future cashflows because the current cashflow is zero. Potential future cashflows always carry a significant discount to actual current cashflow; thus distressed properties are generally undervalued.
For example, when I was buying properties at auction in Las Vegas in 2010-2012, I saw several fourplexes auctioned. The prices generally ranged between $80,000 and $100,000. At the time, it was rare to have more than one or two of the four units with an occupant, and these were located in the worst part of town, often in a state of disrepair. But even discounting for all that, the $650 per month potential rent made for 20%+ capitalization rates — assuming the properties weren’t vacant.
Of course, these properties were vacant, and it wasn’t a matter of lowering the price to fill them. There simply weren’t enough people with jobs to occupy these properties and pay rent. Anyone who purchased one of these needed to expect negative cashflow until the economy improved and demand for housing made even these undesirable alternatives superior to sleeping under the freeway.
The analysis of properties like this become much more complex because an investor must estimate the amount of early losses they must endure while waiting for the economy to improve to fill these empty units. The perils of this strategy are obvious. How many units like these were purchased in Detroit, never to be filled?
Sell when the market is strong
The harder part of executing this strategy is the final sale. The exit isn’t some random point in the future when the investor’s personal circumstances might warrant. The ideal exit is when the property is fully occupied and the expansion is nearing its zenith. This is when foolish optimism and irrational exuberance causes investors to overvalue properties like these. However, it’s also the most emotionally difficult time to part with a profitable investment, which causes many people to hold on too long and miss their chance at a superior exit.
Executing this strategy requires a more complex and detailed financial analysis, an understanding of vacancy in the housing market, and a bit of luck in timing the overall economic cycle. The rewards are superior cashflow and superior appreciation if executed properly.
So where are we in the cycle now?
Home flips signal another housing bubble — right?
Home flips accounted for 5.5% of home sales nationally in 2015 — the highest number since 2007 — causing rumors of speculators’ return in anticipation of a housing bubble.
However, California’s stifled wage growth and high prices instead suggest a future decrease in home sales volume once the Federal Reserve (the Fed) further raises interest rates in late 2016.
[listing mls=”OC16063909″]
Don’t you get sick of visiting these areas in Las Vegas?
To me that would be the worst part.
Dealing with the maybe high school educated hourly workers who flock to Las Vegas.
I’m not as pessimistic about Las Vegas long term as some people are. Vegas will find a way to adapt. The black swan event there is a Brussels, Paris type event… not sure how Vegas would deal with that.
Well said. That’s one reason preventing me from investing in Las Vegas.
People are people, PR. I grew up in a neighborhood (not in OC) full of high-school educated hourly workers. (this was the 70s & 80s… these days it’s a trendy close-to-downtown Hipsterville. If only my parents didn’t sell when my Dad got laid off from his construction job in 86…)
Anyway, some working class folks are scheming a-holes who will try to pick a fight with you if they sense you’re entitled or will never pay their rent on time and always have an excuse. Others (my parents included) will always live up to their obligations and will pay their rent before they feed themselves. You get both kinds. Just like with $100k+ people you get jerks like that Taco Bell exec who abused the Uber driver and you have decent, thoughtful, hardworking folks like a lot of the posters here.
Everyone’s an individual. My Dad drove a Ranger pickup with sandbags in the back and calluses on his hands… and a library full of Shakespeare and philosophy. That might be part of the reason all four of their kids have graduate degrees. Or maybe we were privileged, but that’s a whole other argument 😉
Thanks for sharing your story. Your father sounds like an interesting man.
Carl,
Yes, people are people… I just don’t want to be their landlord and have to see the future of the working class. Thee people are renting in areas where it’s cheaper to own…. AND they have to send their kids to schools with 2 out of 10, 3 out of 10, 4 out of 10 great school ratings. The future is bad.
It would depress me to no end.
If you were a good landlord, you could do something positive for those people.
My brother and I both live in Las Vegas and were discussing that yesterday. We were still in NYC in 2001, but people we know left Vegas because it was dead as a door nail for about two years after 9/11. One woman went back to NYC.
He was saying if something like Brussels happens here, we’re through. He’s involved in a business owned by Shelly A whose high profile in politics and support for Israel makes you a little worried about which place(s) in particular could be targeted. A little worrisome.
The casinos have so much money invested in properties in Las Vegas, I have a hard time imagining them abandoning the place. If there were a terrorist attack, they would beef up security and assure people it would never happen again.
That has always been my response whenever anyone brings up the water situation here (“they’re not going to let this go, too much money invested”).
Terrorists slip by security occasionally, despite being only JV team level.
Yellen: Fed should proceed with caution on future interest rate hikes
All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this morning during her speech to the Economic Club of New York to see if she would give any insight on when the Fed would raise interest rates. Per Reuters:
From the article by Jonathan Spicer and Jennifer Ablan:
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank should proceed “cautiously” as it looks to raise interest rates again, because inflation has not yet proven durable against the backdrop of looming global risks to the U.S economy.
In her first comments since the Fed decided to hold rates steady two weeks ago, Yellen again sounded cautious tones about threats to the recovery of the world’s biggest economy, appearing to push back on more hawkish recent comments from a handful of her colleagues.
“Developments abroad imply that meeting our objectives for employment and inflation will likely require a somewhat lower path for the federal funds rate than was anticipated in December,” when the Fed raised rates for the first time in a decade, Yellen said at the Economic Club of New York.
While this is the first time Yellen went on the record, an article in Bloomberg by Jana Randow and Steve Matthews stated that two Federal Reserve officials recently said interest-rate increases may be warranted as soon as the central bank’s meeting next month.
The last Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which sets the benchmark interest rate for bank lending, announced that it would not be raising that rate in the short term.
According to Fannie Mae’s March 2016 Economic and Housing Outlook, economists at the government-sponsored enterprise expect the FOMC to raise rates in June and December, despite “flat” economic growth in 2016.
The US housing market has a major supply problem
The US housing market has a major supply problem.
This chart, which comes to us from Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Michelle Meyer, shows the increase in housing demand beginning to really accelerate while supply still lags.
And this is a looming issue for the US economy at large.
http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/56ddfdd091058427008b4b54-1200-900/march%207%20cotd%202016.jpeg
On Monday, Conor Sen at New River Investments wrote about the coming affordability and supply conundrum soon to face the housing market, sounding something of an alarm on the prospect of a recession in the US developing over the next couple of years.
“My view is that the housing cycle is the business cycle, and on this basis ‘potential output’ should be much, much higher than it is today,” Sen wrote.
“We’ve underbuilt housing, particularly single-family, for years, and Millennial housing needs will be immense for the next two decades. But because of how much damage occurred in the housing sector and how slow and long the recovery took, other industries absorbed housing sector resources. And now we’re nearing overall US economic resource utilization levels that typically makes the Fed uncomfortable.”
The basic problem posed by a tight housing supply is that it likely leads to continued upward pressure on home prices continuing a lack of affordability for first-time homebuyers.
This also keeps renters renting and, with rent inflation on the rise, potentially accelerate inflationary pressures already percolating in the US economy.
And this has big implications for Fed policy.
The outline here is that with housing prices taking off and business investment staying away from areas where it’s needed — housing! — and moving into other sectors that are near full-capacity inflation will take off.
And so the Federal Reserve — while addressing dormant inflation for most of the last couple years — will then likely be forced to ramp rates higher and faster than they might’ve otherwise planned.
This will likely shock financial markets that have, to use Jeff Gundlach’s phrase, been “daring” the Fed to raise rates.
And so you’ll have a Fed tightening financial conditions faster than expected. You’ll have a market adjusting to higher benchmark rates than expected. You’ll have inflation in the economy running hotter than expected all while housing supply is lower than needed.
So: recession 2018, then?
“And so the Federal Reserve — while addressing dormant inflation for most of the last couple years — will then likely be forced to ramp rates higher and faster than they might’ve otherwise planned.”
LOL, pretty damn wild conclusion there….. not going to happen
“and so…” haha
I agree. I see no way the federal reserve will be “forced” to raise rates. I believe they will tolerate higher inflation for a while before they will worry about rates.
they may raise rates….
but not fast and inflation is no where to be found other than in rents and healthcare and education and high quality food….. everything you need
Southern California home buyers face fierce competition and tight inventory this spring
Packed open houses. Bidding wars. Rising prices.
That’s the landscape for much of the Southern California housing market as the spring selling season gets underway. Competition is as fierce, or even greater, than last year in many corners of the Southland, and would-be buyers can expect a pitched battle if they want to close a deal, real estate agents say.
The frenzied start has been driven by a dearth of homes for sale, low mortgage rates and steady job growth. Homes are selling faster than a year earlier, with more of them going for above the list price, data from online brokerage Redfin show.
“Be ready to write the offer on the Realtor’s car,” mortgage broker Jeff Lazerson said.
Another sign of the market’s strength came this month when data provider CoreLogic reported that sales in February jumped 9% from a year earlier. The median price, meanwhile, climbed 3.7% — the 47th straight month it’s risen.
http://www.trbimg.com/img-56f6145e/turbine/la-fi-g-spring-market-20160325/750/750×422
Lazerson said his clients in Los Angeles and Orange counties are putting an average of five offers on a house before they’re successful. And he’s seeing more demand from first-time home buyers, as well as those who want to upgrade to a bigger home.
“The market seems to be healthy again on all levels,” he said.
Classic Signs of a Bubble
On a recent Sunday, about 150 people flocked to a three-bedroom condo in West L.A. for an open house, agent Tregg Rustad said.
Among the interested buyers were Sameena Shaikh, a medical researcher, and her husband, Muddassar, who works as a software engineer in Santa Monica.
The couple have been searching for a home for about a year but haven’t pulled the trigger. In that time, they’ve seen prices rise and now fear mortgage rates will jump. As they surveyed the packed open house they vowed to be less picky.
“We don’t want to make the same mistake,” Sameena said.
Muddassar explained their new tactic: “Let’s just buy something.”
A very bubbly symptom, but every one of these 150 interested parties can only buy this condo based upon their real provable income qualifying them for the real total housing costs.
Both of us place a great deal of faith in Dodd-Frank’s ability to curb the excesses sure to follow. I hope our faith is well placed.
The only way there will be another bubble is if they open up the flood gates to easy money.
I just received a letter from investment bank Morgan Stanley for a 1.75% interest only for 10 years.. then fully amortizing at whatever the LIBOR rate is at the time.
$1M loan for only $1458 per month… and they said loans up to $10M were available.
Nice. Can you call and ask what the minimum income and reserves are, and what the max LTV is? They intend to portfolio this loan, because as an IO it can’t be a QM, and therefore not a QRM.
The letter suggested a down payment of $350K, but did not state it as a requirement.
I didn’t even realize Investment Banks could offer this, but both UBS and Morgan Stanley are offering products like this.
I am wondering the same things you are wondering, what are the real requirements?
Chinese Demand Dries up in Irvine
Not everywhere in Southern California is red hot, however.
Pegi DiRienzo, a Teles Properties agent, said the market has slowed in the corner of Irvine in which she specializes.
There are fewer buyers from China than last year, given troubles in that country’s economy, DiRienzo said. A flood of new homes have also come on the market near the city’s Great Park. And buyers are increasingly flocking to those, rather than older houses in the Turtle Rock neighborhood near UC Irvine.
“It’s going to take a little longer this year to sell properties,” DiRienzo said.
The ultra-luxury market — $10 million and above — has also floundered as international buyers pull back while the economies in their home countries weaken and the U.S. dollar strengthens, said Nick Segal, chief executive of the Partners Trust brokerage in Beverly Hills.
“A fair number of these purchases 12 months ago were aspirational luxury purchases: ‘I now own a home in Los Angeles and it’s my fourth residence,'” he said. “Those buyers have dried up.”
Chinese demand “dries up” or “anecdotaly slows”?
The real drought will come when the Yuan devalues.
California governor announces landmark $15 minimum wage deal
California governor Jerry Brown has announced a deal to raise the state minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2022, marking the largest victory to date of the national “Fight for $15” campaign to raise pay for low-income workers.
“It’s a matter of economic justice, it makes sense, and it will help our entire state do much better for its citizens,” Brown said at a midday press conference announcing the proposal. “Once again California is showing we can do right by workers, we can advance our economy, and we can do it by the legislative process.”
Under the terms of the proposal, the state minimum wage, which is currently $10.00, will increase by $0.50 per year for two years, and then $1 per year for four years, until it reaches $15 in 2022. Businesses with 25 or fewer employees will have an additional year to phase in the increases. Beginning in 2024, the wage will be indexed to inflation. The deal extends paid sick days to home-care workers and includes “off ramps” that allow the governor to delay implementation in the event of a recession or budgetary shortfalls.
Brown was joined by labor leaders, workers, and California Senate president pro tempore Kevin de León, who noted that the bill will benefit 5.6 million workers, or 32% of the state’s workforce.
“In the wealthiest state in the wealthiest nation on earth, no one who works full-time should have to live in poverty,” de León said. “Today’s move shows that California knows how to lead at a time when some states in the US are moving to even reduce minimum wages. We are the nation before the nation becomes itself.”
California is the eighth-largest economy in the world, and the proposed increase would give it the highest minimum wage in the world. Australia’s AUD $17.29 (US $13.04) is currently the highest national minimum wage.
This could actually be good for the economy (as long as you have a job). Because the key issue now is working people don’t have money to spend and when they get an extra couple of bucks it goes right back into the economy, not spirited off to Switzerland or Bermuda.
Here in SF the minimum wage is $12.25, going to $13 in July and $15 in 2018. It’s actually helping a lot of small businesses because people have more to spend on restaurants and stuff at Target. A lot of low-wage job already have higher real-world minimum wages. Our babysitter gets about $20 an hour and that’s a deal for us!
It will be interesting because instead of BS on both sides (economic collapse! No, economic paradise!) we will get a real experiment in its long-term effects. Like in Kansas. 😉
On that note:
Kansas Tried Tax Cuts. Its Neighbor Didn’t. Guess Which Worked.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-29/kansas-tried-tax-cuts-its-neighbor-didn-t-guess-which-worked
I have to wonder how Conservatives will spin this? It clearly isn’t working out as they promised. It will be interesting to see what happens in the 2016 elections in Kansas.
My guess it will be some variation of “it wasn’t REALLY tried” argument. For example, they might say, if only more regulations were cleared or if the democrats in the legislature didn’t fight for school funding or if we had waited one more year things would have really taken off.
It is hard to believe but some people think communism is a good idea even though we have mountains of counter-examples. Their argument is always “well, REAL communism wasn’t tried it was state capitalism, dictatorship, etc etc”. Oh my, what can we do with such people? True believers are always the worst. The “Chemical Ali”s of the political system.
Very true. Many people chose a political point of view and embrace it with the faith of religion. No matter the contrary facts, the faithful will find a way to interpret those facts in a way the fits within their distorted world view.
You can do much better than $20/hour baby sitting, even in the bay area.
Find a teenage girl on your street. They will do it just to get out of the house and if you trust their parents then it is more like the parents are watching your kids.
You can get down to below minimum wage.
Housing Market’s Health Put to the Test
The current economic environment seems wonderful for home builders. Their stock prices don’t agree, though, perhaps with good reason.
Low interest rates, an improving job market and rising rents suggest the business should be booming. Relatively low inventory of existing homes for sale is pushing the values of both old and new ones higher. In terms of months of supply, the number of existing homes is near its lowest in over a decade.
That backdrop will play a role in Lennar Corp. ’s fiscal first-quarter results, out Tuesday. While those positive macroeconomic factors are at play, the market is betting the cost of business for a firm like Lennar, the second-largest U.S. home builder by houses constructed, is starting to catch up with it.
Fears of a profitability pinch help explain why home-builder stocks still remain well off their summer highs. Even amid their recent rebounds, shares of Lennar, PulteGroup Inc. and KB Home are down 15% to 20% from August, when the broad stock market experienced a swoon.
As MKM Partners analyst Megan McGrath explains it, home builders aren’t profiting as much in the entry-level market for homes priced at $200,000 and below. Historically a growth driver, this market has been shrinking, particularly as land prices have appreciated rapidly in recent years.
And for Lennar specifically, its shares, fetching 1.8 times book value, might be too rich for the current environment. That is some 20% above its 10-year average. Typically when large builders like Lennar approach 2 times book value, it becomes a red flag for future stock performance, according to Ms. McGrath.
Still, if Lennar’s gross margins and order book through February please analysts, its stock could edge higher. But another indicator of housing market health on Tuesday bears watching: the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
The 20-city gauge was seen rising by 5.8% in January from a year earlier, according to economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That doesn’t suggest a runaway market, or one that will help offset Lennar’s rising costs.
The housing market’s foundation remains solid. But it is lacking the flair to propel home-builder stocks much higher.
Why the Corporate Media Hates Sanders (and has a Love/Hate Thing with Trump)
Everyone who isn’t willfully blind knows that the Corporate (mainstream) Media doesn’t give the same coverage to Bernie Sanders as it does to his opponent, Hillary Clinton. Bernie’s rallies go unmentioned, his victories are given short shrift and his personal narrative–practically ideal for media glorification–is mentioned in passing, if at all.
A media professional clued me into why the Corporate Media hates Bernie and will move Heaven and Earth to defeat him: Sanders is the only candidate who is seriously promoting campaign finance reform.
When a Super-PAC raises $100 million for Hillary, Jeb, et al., where does 90% of that money go? To the Corporate Media. Corporate Media gorges on political media buys every two years, and increasingly depends on this feasting on Super-PAC money for its outsized profits.
As more and more advertising dollars flow to digital media (online search, Facebook, etc.), traditional media dominated by a handful of corporate giants needs the massive influx of campaign dollars to offset its stagnating revenue model.
My source notes that there are rarely any discounts for campaign media buys–the super-PACs and candidate’s campaigns pay full pop, and typically pay in cash: no 90 days receivables for campaigns.
Political campaign buys are almost pure profit, as there is minimal sales effort required and the campaign/super-PAC is paying full freight.
Real campaign finance reform would gut Corporate Media’s profits. No wonder the Corporate Media downplays Sanders’ campaign, his personal integrity and his chances to become president.
As for the firewall that supposedly divides editorial from advertising: it’s there for show, of course, and everyone in the business solemnly declares it’s a Great Wall that is never breached, but the reality is the editorial staff know very well who butters their bread–and it sure isn’t the folks getting free media coverage when their competitors are buying tens of millions of dollars in advertising.
Nobody has to openly state that big advertisers are not going to get negative coverage; editorial staff know better than to even propose such a self-destructive notion. Stories are either buried (“this one needs more research”) or they are never proposed due to self-censorship by editorial staff worried that their head will roll in the next downsizing.
The Corporate Media has a love/hate thing going with Trump: the editorial side (i.e. the newsroom) loves Trump, because readers /viewers /listeners will tune in just to see what new outrageous, offensive verbiage Trump has blurted in the last 12 hours, but the advert-revenue side hates him with a passion because thanks to his non-stop media coverage, he doesn’t need to advertise much in the Corporate Media.
According to this estimate, Trump spent $10 million on advertising and received $1.89 billion in free coverage. Deep State Darling Hillary Clinton spent $28 million (is that all?) on adverts and skimmed $746 million in free coverage; Bernie Sanders also spent $28 million and received less than half of Hillary’s free coverage ($321 million)–no bias here, folks, everything is fair and unbiased–and drop-out Jeb Bush spent $82 million and scored $214 million in free coverage.
So the editorial side concerned with attracting eyeballs loves loose-cannon Trump, but the real ruler of the media, the revenue side, hates him most passionately: this skinflint spends almost nothing and gets more free coverage than the rest of the candidates put together.
As you consume the coverage and the advertising this election cycle, always remember that 1) the mainstream media in the U.S. is all corporate-owned, 2) corporations exist to maximize profits, 3) profits flow from advertising, not free coverage, and 4) real campaign finance reform will negatively impact Corporate Media profits.
Always remember who’s selling whom, and who’s in charge: who is the Deep State selling? Who is the Corporate Media selling? Recall that the the Deep State gives the Corporate Media its marching orders: Hillary regains the momentum (New York Times, et al.)
Chinese Officials Can’t Safely Deflate their Real Estate Bubble
Soaring China Home Prices Spark New Curbs in Shanghai: Chart
http://assets.bwbx.io/images/i4M34sDZA4QQ/v4/-1x-1.png
Shanghai officials announced stricter real-estate regulations Friday to help cool a market where new-home prices soared 21 percent in February from a year earlier. Buyers will need to show they’ve been in the city for five years, and some second homes will require down payments of at least 70 percent. Gu Jinshan, chief of the city housing management commission, said at a press conference Friday that the lure of profit is so strong that couples are getting phony divorces to double their buying power by skirting rules that restrict purchases to one per household.
The people in china are trying to buy something before the Government does a massive devaluation and turns their savings into toilet paper.
4.3 Million Borrowers Still Underwater
Irvine, Ca-based CoreLogic is reporting this week that 1 million borrowers regained equity in 2015, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity at the end of Q4 2015 to approximately 46.3 million, or 91.5 percent of all mortgaged properties.
Nationwide, borrower equity increased year over year by $682 billion in Q4 2015. The CoreLogic analysis also indicates approximately 120,000 properties lost equity in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the third quarter of 2015.
The total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity stood at 4.3 million, or 8.5 percent, in Q4 2015. This is an increase of 2.9 percent quarter over quarter from 4.2 million homes, or 8.3 percent, in Q3 2015 and a decrease of 19.1 percent year over year from 5.3 million homes, or 10.7 percent, compared with Q4 2014.
Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in home value, an increase in mortgage debt or a combination of both.
Another Condo Bust Looms in Miami
Wall Street Journal, Mar. 29, 2016–Kusisto, Laura
Miami is facing a condo bust-again. Developers have started canceling projects, slashing prices and offering incentives such as private-jet access to spur sales, an ominous echo of the housing crash that pounded South Florida especially hard.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/another-condo-bust-looms-in-miami-1459266180
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