Archive for May, 2015

House prices can only rise if wages go up, interest rates go down, or supply is restricted. Will we finally see rising wages in 2015? Yesterday I wrote about the importance of wages for house prices. Assuming mortgage interest rates are stable (probably a poor assumption), then for house prices to go up, aggregate wages must rise throughout the market. What conditions are required for wages to rise? When unemployment was very high in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, employees were lucky to keep the jobs they had, so very few people left work voluntarily to take new jobs, and employees were in no position to demand higher wages as the employer could simply replace them, often with…[READ MORE]

Borrower income and mortgage rates determines how much buyers can borrow for a home purchase, making borrower income a major component of market prices. Since this is the prime season for real estate sales, many people come to this site for basic information on homebuying and the market. Today, I want to look at one of the biggest components of market pricing, incomes of local buyers. There are four variables that determine the purchase price of a property: borrower income, allowable debt-to-income ratios, interest rates, and down payment requirements. These variables are impacted by some other minor cost inputs, but for the most part, the variables above determine market pricing. Payment is a direct link to borrower gross income. The…[READ MORE]

In the next four years, 250,000 of HELOCs are due to recast in Los Angeles and Orange counties. Lenders mastered kicking the can when millions of borrowers stopped paying their debts. Rather than foreclose on delinquent borrowers, lenders collectively decided it was in their best interest to cut deals, entice borrowers to make payments, and pray house prices would recover when they could foreclose without losing billions. Can-kicking became the policy of necessity; Politicians encouraged it, some legislatures mandated it, most borrowers asked for it, but lenders required it, which is really why it happened. If lenders had foreclosed on all the delinquent mortgage squatters and liquidated the inventory, house prices would have retreated to Great Depression levels, and our…[READ MORE]

Historically, properties in this market sell at a 9.5% discount. Today's discount is 17.7%. This market is 8.1% undervalued. Median home price is $475,100 with a rental parity value of $578,200. This market's discount is $103,100. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 7 month(s). Momentum suggests improving affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased from $390/SF to $394/SF. Resale prices have been rising for 2 month(s). Over the last 12 months, resale prices rose 9.5% indicating a longer term upward price trend. Median rental rates increased $15 last month from $2,486 to $2,501. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is 5.1%. Rents have been rising for 12 month(s). Price momentum signals rising rents over the next three…[READ MORE]

Mark Hanson believes the reflated housing bubble will also pop. I think we won't see any significant price deflation going forward. The housing bears have not completely gone away. Zero Hedge, Keith Jurow, and Mark Hanson remain bearish, and they provide some of the most compelling bearish arguments in the national conversation. Mark Hanson is the Rodney Dangerfield of housing market economists; he doesn’t get much respect. John Burns, the local darling of the MSM, once said, “I give him zero credibility.” Ouch! So when Mark Hanson argues the US is enmeshed in housing bubble 2.0, he’s dismissed as a perma-bear or a headline grabber who gets on TV. Housing pundits who don’t share Mark Hanson’s views find it easy…[READ MORE]

Young people and lower-income households can't afford the high house prices in California, forcing many to move out of state. Yesterday I provided an update on the local housing market. The data in my reports show the market is relatively affordable, but this affordability is not spread equally across all buyer categories. Due to the chronic shortages of housing supply that inflates California house prices and rents, lower income and young buyers looking for entry-level housing find it very difficult to buy. So while California house prices are as affordable as they were in the 90s, since this problem has persisted since the 70s, entry-level buyers face the same problems today than they have for the last 40+ years. I…[READ MORE]

With increasing affordability from falling mortgage rates, expect increasing sales and increasing prices until rates begin to rise. Each month, I publish housing market reports for most of Southern California. The overview report covering the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura is available to everyone in the Housing Market Reports page on this site. The individual county reports are available to registered users of this site on the Subscriber's Reports page. Also, on weekends I publish excerpts of these reports in posts for people who want an overview without downloading the reports. Since this is the prime season for buying and selling, I want to take a more detailed look at the local market to help…[READ MORE]

MLS Inventories are low because underwater owners and those will low equity aren't listing their homes. Back in 2011 lenders changed their loss mitigation policies. Rather than foreclosing on delinquent borrowers and selling the subsequent property as REO, banks made two major changes that dried up the MLS inventory: (1) lenders modified every loan they could and (2) lenders stopped approving short sales if the borrower had assets. By modifying loans and denying short sales, distressed inventory disappeared, buyers in the market competed with each other for scarce inventory, and prices rose rapidly. The simple fact is that low housing inventory is a direct result of the changes in lender loss mitigation policies. Demand has not picked up notably over…[READ MORE]

The combination of weak or falling home prices and a rising cost of ownership is the worst of both worlds in residential real estate. Stagflation is broadly defined as an economic condition of high inflation and slow growth. Stagflation was last noted in the 1970s when rising oil prices drained resources from the economy simultaneously slowing growth and raising prices. Economists consider stagflation the worst of both worlds because ordinary people endure rising prices without rising wages to compensate. The US housing market faces its own version of stagflation when mortgage interest rates begin to rise. When mortgage rates go up, the cost of borrowing will increase, and unless wages rise considerably, the cost of borrowing will increase faster than…[READ MORE]

Loan terms faced by future homebuyers determine how much they can borrow and how much they can pay for houses purchased today. One of my earliest posts in May of 2007 was about the impact future loan terms have on future home prices. Most people just assume house prices always go up. Their faith was shaken by a precipitous decline from 2007 to 2012, but now that the bottom is securely in the rear-view mirror, kool aid intoxication in faith-based appreciation returns. I want to revisit the idea of future house prices depending on future loan terms because it makes a strong case for weak home price appreciation going forward. The how and why matters, and before kool aid gets…[READ MORE]

Monthly Housing Report

In Memoriam: Tony Bliss 1966-2012