One of the more esoteric debates on the fundamental value of houses centers on whether or not houses appreciate faster than the overall rate of inflation. Nobody who isn’t kool aid intoxicated believes house prices rise much more than the level of inflation because intelligent people understand trees cannot grow to the sky. If house prices consistently went up in value faster than price or wage inflation, over time, people would lose their ability to afford to buy houses because [Read More...]
In the second post I wrote for the IHB back on March 3, 2007, I discussed a basic truth of housing markets: Cashflow Investors have a different agenda; they want to turn a monthly profit from ownership. For them, the cost of ownership must be less than prevailing rent for them to make a return on their equity investment. Cashflow Investors form a durable bottom. If prices drop low enough for this group to get into the market, the influx [Read More...]
When the housing market nears the bottom, despair dominates. Prices have fallen for five straight years and hover at 10-year lows, and real estate is out of favor as an investment class. Evidence of the market’s despair crops up in articles extolling the virtues of renting. Articles about renting were common from 1994 to 1996, and at the time, renting was a good idea; prices had been falling, and there was little reason to believe they would be going up [Read More...]
Shadow inventory can not be absorbed by first-time buyers. There are simply not enough owner-occupants to absorb the inventory due to come to the market over the next several years. Real estate cashflow investors are needed to stabilize the housing market. These investors are the only other source of demand available. There are investment holdings companies that buy and hold rentals, and they will be part of the solution. I have recently formed Radiant Homes for this purpose. However, due [Read More...]
Real estate investors during the housing bubble put their money to work on faith. There is no logical reason to believe house prices only go up. In fact, there have been two prior periods in California’s recent history where house prices did, in fact, go down. However, with kool aid intoxication, otherwise known as faith-based investing, reality is ignored. If you truly believe house prices only go up, no price is too high, and you don’t have to worry about [Read More...]
Most people who bought houses during the 00s did so with dreams of riches. Those dreams materialized in laughter for some, tears and financial slaughter for others. Bricks and slaughter Property is widely seen as a safe asset. It is arguably the most dangerous of all, says Andrew Palmer Mar 3rd 2011 … Why is property so dangerous? One obvious answer is the sheer size of the asset class. The aggregate value of property held by American households in the [Read More...]
Timeshare or fractional ownership has been around since the 60s, but is was during the 90s this industry really took off. Wikipedia defines Timeshare as follows: A timeshare is a form of ownership or right to the use of a property, or the term used to describe such properties. These properties are typically resort condominium units, in which multiple parties hold rights to use the property, and each sharer is allotted a period of time (typically one week, and almost [Read More...]
In its obsession with home ownership, the government has been ignoring the one group most needed to stabilize housing prices: cashflow investors. Several weeks ago, I asked the question Should Government Mortgage Subsidies Be Offered to Cashflow Investors? Most readers said no. Personally, I would like to see the government get entirely out of the housing market, but as long as they are determined to support prices, perhaps they should look for policies that will be more effective. As Shadow [Read More...]
Bubble Blogs and Deflation Psychology The IHB has never been a bubble blog, but it is often labeled as such because I have been bearish on housing for so long. I am still bearish on Orange County (and I am not alone), but I am very bullish on Las Vegas and many other beaten down markets. Someday, I may even be bullish on Orange County — probably after all the bulls give up. Bubble blogs resonated with many people because they spoke [Read More...]
Peace of mind is an underrated and undervalued emotional state. Most people choose lives of speculation, competition, and make believe. They erroneously believe if they arrive at some destination known as “being rich,” they will have everything they ever wanted, and that will make them happy. It won’t. There is a peace of mind that comes with wealth, but this emanates not from the pile of money, but the cashflow that pile of money gives off. The size of the pile may get bigger [Read More...]
Speculation or Investment? Real estate is viewed by many people as a good investment. Realtors often use this idea as part of their sales pitch. As was described in detail in the post What is a Bubble?, this view is fallacious and it is one of the beliefs responsible for creating an asset price bubble. To understand why houses are not a good investment, one needs to understand the difference between investment and speculation. An investment is an asset purchased [Read More...]
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