OC house prices are relatively payment affordable, but nothing is available to buy

For those planning on a long term of ownership, interest rates below 4% have made payment affordability the best its been in years, perhaps ever. The prices still seem ridiculously inflated, but record low interest rates make borrowing such large sums possible. Those low rates even drive the cost of ownership below the cost of comparable rentals, in some markets substantially below. It should be no surprise that many of the bubble-era communities and the less desirable older communities have [Read More...]

 
Sales down, prices down, shadow inventory abundant, and Shiller says prices may never recover

The frenzy over the possibility of a bottom in the housing market needs to be tempered by the reality of the current market situation. Despite relative affordability, sales volumes are low and declining, resale prices are still falling, we have a huge overhang of supply in shadow inventory, and as economist Robert Shiller points out, we may be on the Japanese path of decade-long deflation in housing. Any one of these conditions would warrant market pessimism. All at the same [Read More...]

 
Record low interest rates fail to spur demand

Interest rates are at record lows, and prices are at or below rental parity in most markets, yet demand is low and sales volumes are weak. Most real estate shills blame intransigent buyers. Many realtors believe legions of buyers are fence-sitting due to falling prices. In their world, if buyers could just be cajoled into buying, everything would be okay. The main reason buyers aren’t buying is because they can’t. The buyer pool has been depleted by the recession. Fewer [Read More...]

 
Lower conforming limit causes 84% decline in loan volume

In Los Angeles and Orange Counties, the conforming loan limit dropped from $729,750 to $625,000 on October 1, 2011. Many market bulls claimed this would have no effect on sales. In November sales of houses with loans between $625,000 and $729,750 declined 84% as compared to last November. So much for having no impact. In other news, the falling prices are beginning to motivate some buyers as evidenced by the small increase in sales volume. Falling prices and increasing sales [Read More...]

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