For the last few years, I have started with predictions. Last year, I had this recap and predictions: Recap of Past Predictions First, I wrote Predictions for 2008, and last year I wrote Predictions for 2009. Nothing too bold or surprising either time: “Most of the macroeconomic conditions I made in 2008 are still operative, and several of the predictions I made which came true will likely repeat in 2009. These are: 2008 will see the worst single-year decline in the median house price ever recorded One or more of our major financial institutions and one or more of our [Read More...]

On January 1, 2008, I wrote a post titled Predictions for 2008. You can go back and review it to see how well I did. As a recap, I would like to share with you a couple of charts from 2008 for Irvine and OC: Click for larger image Most of the macroeconomic conditions I made in 2008 are still operative, and several of the predictions I made which came true will likely repeat in 2009. These are: 2008 will see the worst single-year decline in the median house price ever recorded One or more of our major financial institutions [Read More...]

This is the final installment in my series of related posts pertaining to the Irvine residential real estate market. It is my intention in this post to bring it all together, make a prediction as to the timing and depth of the upcoming crash, and describe the variables that will influence the market decline. Below is a chart I created to demonstrate what I believe will occur in the Irvine Housing market between 2007 and 2013. Median sales price will decline approximately 40% from near $700,000 to near $400,000 over the next 5 years. There will be a multi-year flattening [Read More...]