Dec 032012
 
Kicking widows to the curb, the sad fallout of excessive senior debt

My point of view on home ownership and debt is very different than most financial reporters, and apparently it’s different than most Americans. In my view traditional views of home ownership, like those extolled in Mike’s weekend piece Why our less educated parents and grandparents were more intelligent on homeownership, have been replaced by a twisted concept of money rentership as a proxy for home ownership. I described the slow deterioration of our concepts of home ownership in the post Money rentership: housing and the new American dream: One of the most common encumbrances on property is the mortgage lien, [Read More...]

Oct 312012
 
Southern California's cultural pathology (redux)

I began writing about the housing market back in February of 2007. Over the last five and one half years, I’ve covered a lot of ground. Many of my earliest posts serve as a foundation for my philosophy that comes through my daily posts. I know many of you who read this blog have been with me from the beginning, but I have also picked up many new readers along the way. Since we are entering the recovery stage of the market, and since this material will be new to many I plan to revisit many of my old posts [Read More...]

Oct 262012
 
The deleveraging myth exposed: Generation Ponzi doesn't pay down debts

When consumers take on debt, eventually it’s paid off. Debt is not an asset people spend their lives accumulating, at least it’s not supposed to be. Paying off debt is a process known as deleveraging. In a growing economy, young people take on debts to buy cars and houses while old people pay off debts. In aggregate, debts should grow at a measured pace. When lenders make debts grow too fast, the economy becomes over-stimulated and debtors become insolvent. When large numbers of borrowers become insolvent, a credit crunch ensues, and the bills come due. This flushes out the Ponzis [Read More...]

Oct 022012
 
Will reflating the housing bubble deny home ownership to the middle class?

Super low interest rates have allowed today’s homebuyers to bid home prices up near peak levels in many areas. This helps lenders recover more capital from the bad loans they made during the housing bubble, which is why the federal reserve is intent on driving mortgage interest rates even lower. As a result of all this artificial stimulus, price-to-income ratios have remained elevated far above historic norms. Unless interest rates are going to remain this low forever, one of three things must happen: either house prices must go down further, debt-to-income ratios must increase, or wages must go up. Higher [Read More...]

Sep 182012
 
Potential government-induced mortgage credit crunch in 2013

To understand the credit crunch, and why we might have another one, I have a visualization exercise for you that I originally posted back in 2007: Imagine a room with 100 people representing the pool of subprime borrowers. These are new entrants to the market. They were previously unable to buy due to bad credit, lack of savings, and other reasons. All of them are told they are going to bid on an asset that never goes down in value, and they will be given the ability to borrow unlimited funds (stated-income “liar loans”) The only caveat is the borrowed money [Read More...]

Sep 102012
 
Debt-to-income ratios must be limited to prevent future housing bubbles

In The Great Housing Bubble, I wrote about how we could prevent the next housing bubble: Loans for the purchase or refinance of residential real estate secured by a mortgage and recorded in the public record are limited by the following parameters based on the borrower’s documented income and general indebtedness and the appraised value of the property at the time of sale or refinance: All payments must be calculated based on a 30-year fixed-rate conventionally-amortizing mortgage regardless of the loan program used. Negative amortization is not permitted. The total debt-to-income ratio for the mortgage loan payment, taxes and insurance [Read More...]

Aug 272012
 
Housing bubble creates no-win political situation for either presidential candidate

President Obama’s housing policies have been as successful as the circumstances would allow. Back in June I quipped, Obama’s housing policy succeeded wildly by failing spectacularly. Personally, I would have preferred he let the banks go bankrupt, nationalize them, fire management, recapitalize the banking system, and sell them off the bank’s stock when the economy recovered. Unfortunately, the flash-point of the crisis occurred while Bush was still in office, and these institutions were deemed too big to fail. Obama continued Bush’s flawed policies and looked for solutions that did not bankrupt the banks. This left few good options. Once bank bankruptcy [Read More...]

Aug 062012
 
2.7 million California households pay at least half their income for housing

One hundred percent of those who lost homes in foreclosure suffered from excessive debt — 100%. The total amount of debt is important, but the terms of repayment are far more critical. The monthly payment (plus taxes, insurance and other costs) must be a manageable percentage of the borrower’s income, otherwise the borrower is likely to default. Historically, this value was 28% or less, then it was expanded to 30%, and now the GSEs underwrite to 31%. Debt-to-income ratios higher than this are proven to have accelerating default rates absent Ponzi borrowing. Thirty-one percent doesn’t sound like an onerous percentage [Read More...]

Jul 252012
 
Second mortgages hold short sellers hostage

Why do short sales take so long? Basically, banks don’t want to take a loss, and short sales cause them to lose money — a lot of money. Short sales come in two basic varieties; properties with second mortgages and properties without. If a property does not have a second mortgage, short sales are generally quicker and easier to approve. The first mortgage is often covered by mortgage insurance, and as a percentage of the total loan amount, any losses are generally small. If a property has a second mortgage — and millions do — then the situation becomes much [Read More...]

Jul 062012
 
Reverse mortgages are a really, really bad idea

I have made mistakes in my life that made me want to go back in time and undo them. Sometimes you can, but sometimes you can’t go back and reverse the damage. Taking on a reverse mortgage is one mistake that is very difficult to undo. I don’t like reverse mortgages. I don’t like many forms of debt, but reverse mortgages are one of the worst forms out there. According to the Department of Housing and Urban Development: A reverse mortgage is a special type of home loan that lets you convert a portion of the equity in your home [Read More...]

Mar 202012
 
Excessive student loan debt is another long-term drag on housing

When subprime borrowers defaulted and lenders foreclosed, the bottom fell out of the housing market. As the distress from toxic mortgage debt worked its way up the housing ladder, each subsequent rung collapsed. Only the upper tiers remain inflated, although probably not for much longer. With the collapse of the bottom of the market, the equity vanished that is necessary to sustain the upper levels of the housing market. In order for the housing market to find a stable bottom, first-time homebuyers must come forward to absorb the distressed inventory. Unfortunately, the typical pool of first-time buyers composed of recent [Read More...]

Nov 222011
 
50% of mortgage holders are unable to move without a short sale

To be underwater with a cost of ownership exceeding a comparable rental is to be trapped in a debtor’s prison. Loan owners in these circumstances have few good options. If they move and rent the house, they lose money each month until rents rise enough to allow them to break even. In a weak economy with stagnant wage growth, it may be a very long time before these owners get back to even on a payment basis. If they sell, it will be a short sale. They will endure a decline in their credit score, and they may have to [Read More...]

Oct 132011
 
Zombie debt: the legacy of the housing bubble

Most people who leave their houses behind under duress believe they have no liability. Even the ones who suspect they might will generally duck their lender's calls and letters and hope the problem goes away on its own. It won't. California recently passed legislation barring lenders from seeking collection on deficiencies after a short sale. Of course, this has merely contributed to the already slow pace of short sale approvals. California borrowers already had non-recourse protections on purchase-money mortgages, and there are statutory limits on collecting debts severed from the property in foreclosure. I think these are good policies in [Read More...]

Aug 052011
 
A loanowner’s tale of woe

Foreclosure sob stories always seem to lack a few pertinent details explaining exactly how the unfortunate circumstances came to pass. Today’s featured article is written by a renting former owner who works at the newspaper. She tries to portray herself as a victim, but in reality, she is only a victim of her own poor decisions. No refuge from the mortgage crisis A homeowner tries to work with bankers to hold on to her modest but beloved house, but her pleas mean little to the number crunchers. By Kathy Gosnell Seiler — July 24, 2011 From the front door of [Read More...]

Apr 072010
 
The Debt Star Has Cleared the Planet

The Debt Star has cleared the planet….. For now fellow IHB readers we’re going to a galaxy far, far away. Circling planet Overborrow_ 92620 are the giant Star Destroyers, each packed with dastardly bankers and fearsome asset managers. The Armada, comprised mainly of BofA, Wells Fargo, Citi, and Chase, has tried their best to level the planet and reclaim it’s wealth. For now, Rebel forces have held off the Imperials believing the longer they stand and fight, the sooner will come some measure of rebel victory. Thwarting the will of the Emperor so far has been pretty easy. As anyone [Read More...]

Mar 312010
 
Loan Modifications Succeed by Increasing Borrower Entitlements

Lenders really need to let go. They blew it. It’s over. Just let it die. Both the lender and the borrower pay a price — or at least they are supposed to. Instead, we bail them out, and we pay the price. Don’t forget about us who pay for their mistakes. Part of the price we pay is obvious in the accounting for the various bailouts, but much of the price we pay is hidden in higher home prices, greater public indebtedness, and in the subsidized entitlements of borrowers everywhere.  Government backed loan modification attempts are ill-conceived because bailouts create moral hazard. However, the bailouts and the [Read More...]