Oct 082011
 
What really prompts borrowers to accelerate their default?

Strategic default: the abandonment of mortgage and property. A financial explosion. Most buyers of property were seeking riches from appreciation. They all enjoyed the synchronized movements of the market when everyone was clamoring for more property. Trees don’t grow to the sky, and no matter how close prices get to heaven, nirvana is always out of reach. Strategic Defaults Threaten All Major U.S. Housing Markets Posted by Keith Jurow 09/30/10 8:00 AM EST In my last article, we examined the shadow inventory to determine how many distressed properties (not on MLS) were almost certain to be forced onto the market in [Read More...]

Sep 222011
 
The weak case against strategic default

Today’s featured article is a commentary from Housing Wire’s Kerri Panchuk. Apparently, she does not accept the wisdom of strategic default. For a variety of reasons, I believe strategic default is a wise course of action for underwater loan owners who are paying more to own than the cost of rental. Let’s read the counter-arguments to check their validity. The new slap in the face of foreclosure by KERRI PANCHUK — Tuesday, September 20th, 2011, 2:33 pm Every American upset with the state of mortgage lending should read the Fox Business News article on strategic default in order to meet [Read More...]

Sep 152011
 
Widespread strategic default is essential to economic recovery

The economy is being dragged down by massive debts taken on by insolvent households. We have tried loan modifications, and they failed. Voluntary principal forgiveness is not forthcoming, so that leaves only one alternative to purging the excess debt: massive strategic default. Massive default is best way to fix the economy Commentary: Clearing away the debt is the only way forward Brett Arends — Sept. 12, 2011, 12:00 a.m. EDT NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — You want to fix this economic crisis? You want to put people back to work? You want to light a fire under the economy? There’s a [Read More...]

Sep 022011
 
Using rental parity to find bargain properties

Equality has power. Rental parity is a powerful price point because the cost of ownership is equal to the cost of rental. Theoretically, buyers should be indifferent at rental parity, but in the real world kool aid intoxication prompts many buyers to bid prices up above rental parity. The true power of this threshold doesn’t become apparent until prices fall and owners find themselves paying far more than comparable rentals for properties worth less than they paid. Today’s post will be heavy on math, but I want to give everyone a look inside the black box of aggregate rental parity [Read More...]

Aug 192011
 
The folly of negative-cashflow investment

Real estate investors during the housing bubble put their money to work on faith. There is no logical reason to believe house prices only go up. In fact, there have been two prior periods in California’s recent history where house prices did, in fact, go down. However, with kool aid intoxication, otherwise known as faith-based investing, reality is ignored. If you truly believe house prices only go up, no price is too high, and you don’t have to worry about a backup plan if house prices don’t go up. There is only one viable backup plan when a speculative play [Read More...]

Jul 072011
 
Strategic default is moral imperative to prevent future housing bubbles

The fear of strategic default is a necessary deterrent to foolish lending. Without it, lenders are emboldened to make all manner of bad loans because they believe they will get paid back. Lenders will make nearly any loan if they believe they will get their money back with interest. It’s only when they feel they won’t get repaid are they prompted to loan responsibly. Signatory versus asset-backed debt Some have questioned how I can be so against debt, yet I am leveraging up to the max to buy cashflow properties in Las Vegas. Isn’t that being hypocritical? No. Not all [Read More...]

May 252011
 
Strategic default consequences minor and likely to decrease

There is an art to strategic default. There are many options, and some have stronger consequences than others. Does the borrower want to maintain some lines of credit? Will selectively defaulting on certain debts hurt their credit score more than others? Will strategic defaulters need to declare bankruptcy? Now that millions have defaulted on their mortgage, we have anecdotal data and research studies on what really happens to those who quit paying. The results will surprise some and inspire many. Eroding the Fear of Foreclosure: New Research Shows Strategic Defaulters Experience With Post-Foreclosure Credit Posted on May 12th, 2011 One [Read More...]

May 162011
 
Strategic mortgage default has become common and accepted

Attitudes toward strategic default are changing. Last December I flatly stated, Strategic mortgage default will become common and accepted in 2011. Many of those who chose not to strategically default make this choice because they believe making the payment is a moral obligation — an obligation above and beyond what is written in the contract. Banks are relying on those borrowers motivated by their perceived morality to keep making payments. Unfortunately, there is no longer a moral stigma associated with strategic default (accelerated default is a more accurate term). Banks need a moral stigma to be associated with loan repayment. [Read More...]

Mar 232011
 
Why do people buy homes? Why shouldn't they?

The need for shelter is basic as is the desire for community. In the United States, this translates into a desire to take on a very large mortgage to buy real estate. These basic human emotions drive much of the activity in real estate markets. Most people buy because it is the right time for them. Their career, age, family circumstances all come together to push people toward ownership at different times. Some are fortunate and buy at the bottom of the real estate cycle. Some are not so fortunate and buy at the peak. The most damaging aspect of [Read More...]

Sep 142010
 
Contrarian investing and the psychology of deflation

Bubble Blogs and Deflation Psychology The IHB has never been a bubble blog, but it is often labeled as such because I have been bearish on housing for so long. I am still bearish on Orange County (and I am not alone), but I am very bullish on Las Vegas and many other beaten down markets. Someday, I may even be bullish on Orange County — probably after all the bulls give up. Bubble blogs resonated with many people because they spoke a truth about greed and stupidity during a period of mass financial insanity. Prices were insane, and bubble bloggers said so. [Read More...]

Jun 172010
 
Accelerated default, what strategic default really is

People form strong attachments to their homes. Walking away is never a decision they take lightly. We can discuss the pros and cons and come up with our own beliefs and attitudes about it, but the turnover of our housing stock caused by the housing crash will be very painful for those who go through it. Ruthless default or accelerated default?  I write often about hidden premises buried within the arguments writers make. These distinctions are important, and unless we uncover our fallacious beliefs, we make erroneous judgments and carry false beliefs. I have written many times about strategic default, and [Read More...]

May 252010
 
The California economy is dependent upon Ponzi borrowers

Ponzi borrowing and HELOC Abuse Most people fail to budget properly for unexpected expenses or expenses that do not occur monthly. When these expenses occur, most will borrow the money, often on credit cards. During the year, this debt will accumulate like tooth plaque, and at the end of the year, many debtors hope for a work bonus or a tax refund to clean the debt from their balance sheets. Homeowners, particularly in California, would go to the housing ATM and add to their mortgage to pay for these un-budgeted expenses of daily life. The sad reality is that this method of Ponzi borrowing can work as long as (1) the [Read More...]

May 242010
 
Go Ponzi, young debtor! Managing finances the California way

Borrowers bow down before their lenders. Borrowers give up control of their own lives when they take on debt as their time and effort go toward paying for the past rather than investing for the future. Borrowing is a weakness, a crushing weight, a debilitating pile of paper detailing a life of servitude in exchange for a borrower’s entitlements. Of course, most borrowers don’t see it that way. They feel powerful. Borrowers believe they are rich because someone was willing to loan them money. The more money people borrow, the stronger they feel and the weaker they get. Ponzi Schemes of debt are the highest form of borrower [Read More...]

May 122010
 
The cash value of real estate explained

Most people purchase real estate in California because they believe they will get rich. Few want to spend money to provide a home for their family as most expect their home to provide money for the family. Houses are the new wage earners, not through rental cashflow but through appreciation. Life doesn’t work that way. Real estate can be a profitable cashflow investment, and it can make people rich — not through speculation on buying and selling, but through owning for positive cashflow. Cash value of real property Establishing the cash value of real property requires an understanding of risk and relative rates of investment return. [Read More...]

Apr 302010
 
Strategic default is merely collecting on home price protection insurance sold by lenders

Do loan owners really want to spend a decade or more under water? It will be difficult to send their children off to college when they make too much for their kids to get aid, but they haven’t saved anything because they are paying on a bloated mortgage. At some point, they may decide they don’t want to stay, but then they can’t move because they can’t sell. They spend the rest of their lives quietly fading away. Many in California will stay because they believe the next housing bubble is right around the corner. Like gamblers at the craps table who were [Read More...]

Apr 222010
 
Walk away from mortgage debt to secure your children's future

Lenders are pressuring owners to repay their underwater loans by appealing to morality. As people strategically default and their lives improve, they tell their friends which triggers the next wave of strategic defaults. The pressure of morality gets less and less effective, particularly when borrowers realize the false morality to lenders is superseding their real moral obligations to their families. Homeowners Who ‘Strategically Default’ Are Under Moral Pressure By Charlotte Cuthbertson Walking away from a mortgage seemed like a crazy idea to Chris Schreur, a financial adviser, and his wife Valerie thought he had gone mad when he mentioned it. It wasn’t just the financial hit, [Read More...]