Dec202011
OC Republican John Campbell successfully lobbies for more government handouts
The loan limit on FHA loans is now $729,750. The venerable FHA which was founded to provide loans for low to middle income Americans is now being used to subsidize the mortgages and the house prices of high wage earners in places like Irvine.
The government should get out of the housing market. Even the government knows this, but when removing its support causes house prices to weaken, so does the resolve of those in government to get out of the housing market.
Obama signs extension for higher FHA loan limits
by JON PRIOR — Friday, November 18th, 2011, 10:21 am
President Obama signed into law a government spending bill Friday morning effectively reinstalling higher conforming loan limits for the Federal Housing Administration through the end of 2013.
The House passed the minibus spending bill 298-121 Thursday afternoon, and the Senate approved it 70-30 Thursday night.
Effective Friday, FHA can insure loans up to $729,750 from $625,500 in the most expensive neighborhoods. In 2008, Congress elevated the limits for the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but expired Oct. 1.
The Senate approved an amendment to the bill earlier in the month that would have reinstalled the limits for Fannie and Freddie as well. But a joint appropriations committee cut the government-sponsored enterprises out, leaving the FHA in.
It can be argued this is an interim step toward getting the government out. The costs on FHA loans are higher, so it will provide some additional demand, but only by high wage earners who can still support a $729,750 loan after paying the onerous FHA loan premium. Private money will still be needed to fill the gap, but as I demonstrated in Lower conforming limit causes 84% decline in loan volume, the gap is currently a chasm.
By signing the bill, the Obama administration back-tracked somewhat from a white paper put out in February. The paper put forth three options for the housing finance system, precluded by the expiration of the higher conforming loan limits in order to begin ushering private capital back to the market.
FHA Acting Commissioner Carole Galante warned senators Thursday that the government should be looking to shrink the FHA market share.
“We maintain that it is appropriate to take a step back on the loan limits,” Galante said.
It’s appropriate to keep house prices inflated with government supports? It’s appropriate to have the government assume the losses that should accrue to the banks?
Rep. John Campbell, R-Calif., made the case on the House floor Thursday to reinstall the limits for Fannie and Freddie as well, citing concerns that the housing market is not healthy enough to be taken off the government lifeline.
“Even now, private lenders remain incredibly risk-averse, hesitating to provide long-term, fixed-rate mortgages to the vast majority of the market,” Campbell said. “Until Congress decides how to move forward with broad reform to fix our broken housing finance system, we should not dismantle the few remaining support systems that are preventing the housing industry from collapsing further.”
I first reported congress passed this legislation last month. In that post, I made the following observation: “California Republicans should hide their faces in shame. This is appalling. These Republicans call for reducing the footprint of government and simultaneously vote to keep the house prices inflated in their districts with more government largess.”
John Campbell is not a conservative, or has the term conservative been redefined to include maximizing government handouts for high wage earners and rich people? John Campbell is a disgrace to conservatives and to the Republican party.
Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., shook his head Thursday, clearly frustrated at the decision his colleagues made.
“The white paper and a bill are two very different things,” Corker said. “I am absolutely so discouraged at Congress in lacking the courage to deal with this issue that we all know needs to be dealt with.”
Write to Jon Prior.
Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.
Bob Corker is my new hero. Thank you for telling it like it is.
Should you or shouldn’t you?
On principle, I wouldn’t want to use an FHA loan above $417,000. In reality, I might.
Even now, I take advantage of government-backed loans to buy properties being rented to government subsidized renters. My moral aversion to government intervention aside, if that is the only game in town, I will play it if necessary. And it is necessary to buy a property these days.
In late 2013, I will probably buy a house, hopefully in Irvine. Since I am spending all my money on cashflow properties, I probably won’t have 20% to put down on a property. I may use an FHA loan.
I recognize this is one more government prop which when removed will likely result in diminished demand and lower prices, but if I don’t have 20% to put down, it may be the only option I have. I know I am not alone in this regard.
At low interest rates, many people who live and rent in Irvine could afford a mortgage greater than $417,000 or even $625,000. Many of those people will use FHA loans over the next two years, and their buying will provide some artificial support to prices.
Sometimes I wonder if the government props will ever be removed. If I wait until they all are, I may not buy a house in my lifetime. Many of these props may never go away. It’s not the market I want to operate in, but it is the only housing market we have. If you want to own, you have to deal with it.
“It’s not the market I want to operate in, but it is the only housing market we have. If you want to own, you have to deal with it.”
I agree with everything you say, but I believe there is something that can be done about it. If many, or most current buyers stopped relying on their brokers in what to believe, the momentum would send a clear message to the market. Haggle like hell, be tenacious, don’t believe your broker, don’t settle for anything less that a big discount …and you will likely get it.
The downward momentum is sending a message, and the politicians are responding with more market supports. Hopefully, buyers will respond with more fence sitting.
One might think that this is a “those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it” moment for the idiot lawyers in DC, but I think it will really be a good real world example of basic economic principles. The argument has always been that the underlying economics of the housing market will force prices back down. The government support has been less about averting the fall and more about elongating the time it takes to hit bottom (as you have mentioned/shown in many previous posts). This desperate act shows the downward momentum is starting to get too strong for the weak walls that were built. Haven’t all of the suckers that would fall for this already purchased something? Isn’t that why the demand is suffering? This trick was already tried and wasn’t sufficient. Bringing it back won’t stem the tide. Those on the sidelines are waiting for the clearance sale, not someone to convince them that they can afford retail prices. I have a feeling DC is going to learn there isn’t much marginal utility to re-introducing a already used up plan.
“Those on the sidelines are waiting for the clearance sale, not someone to convince them that they can afford retail prices.”
Well put. The government, realtors, lenders are all trying to convince potential buyers bubble prices are affordable. The low interest rates are making payments affordable, but the prices are so high that payment affordability is not enough.
“I have a feeling DC is going to learn there isn’t much marginal utility to re-introducing a already used up plan.”
I thought the same thing after the first couple of failed loan modification plans, but they keep re-introducing that idea no matter how many times it fails.
The worst part about making the bubble deflate slowly is that it merely prolongs the crisis. Japan endured a generation of falling real state prices so bankers there could slowly write down the losses on their stupid loans. It’s starting to look like we will have at least a decade of falling prices, and in some areas, it may go on even longer. It will be at least 3 to 5 years after the housing market truly bottoms to return to a normal market with equity sellers making move-up transactions. We are a long way from seeing this problem resolved.
“…the underlying economics of the housing market will force prices back down…”
I have often thought (and stated on this blog in the past) that the trigger point to start an irreversible slide in home prices would be a large bank (i.e. B of A) crying uncle, breaking away from the cartel, accelerating REO sales and thus effectively marking to market.
But, based on today’s news about big gains in new housing starts, I am beginning to wonder if new (and most certainly lower priced) homes will instead force prices down?
Larry (IrvineRenter) has often written about the “substitution effect” in housing.
It would seem to me that new, lower priced homes would provide that opportunity.
It’s by no means certain that the new homes will be less expensive. I think the builders will try to price higher than resale comps and re-establish a premium for new. I don’t think they will be successful as the lower priced REOs continue to undercut them.
It is really good news that homebuilders are building and selling again. Much of our economic problems stem from the fact that our construction industry is unemployed.
Home building spikes higher
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney December 20, 2011: 10:12 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Home building spiked up in November to the strongest level in almost two years, as record-low mortgage rates and a surge in apartment and condo construction lifted activity.
Housing starts shot up to an annual rate of 685,000 in the month, up 9.3% from October and 24.3% higher than a year earlier. Building activity easily topped predictions of 627,000 starts economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting.
Building permits, a closely-watched reading that is less affected by weather than actual starts, also shot up, rising 5.7% from October and 20.7% from the year before to 681,000 homes annually.
“By historical standards, homebuilding activity is still very depressed, but at least it appears to be on an established upward trend,” said Paul Diggle, property economist at Capital Economics.
Helping to lift building was the fact that the average rate for 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages hit record lows last week, according to Freddie Mac. And the latest National Association of Home Builders’ survey released Monday also showed a pick-up in activity, with the best level of customer traffic since early 2008.
Both permits and starts were the strongest readings since the spring of 2010, the original deadline for a homebuyer tax credit that sparked a temporary rebound in building and home sales.
Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank, said it’s important not to get too excited about a single month of strong building, particularly so far ahead of the spring selling season — a key period for the market. But he said the latest readings are encouraging.
“There has been a noticeable uptrend in several key housing metrics in the back half of this year, so even though we are downplaying the November data to some degree, it does appear that residential construction is finally beginning to rise from its post-recession lows,” he said in a note to clients Tuesday.
The gains in single-family home starts and permits were more modest than those for multi-family homes.
Starts of buildings with five or more housing units nearly tripled from a year ago, to an annual level of 230,000.
It was the greatest number of starts of units of that size since September 2008, the month the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy sparked a meltdown in financial markets.