As the author of The Great Housing Bubble, I am an authority on the housing bubble. As someone who has written daily about the myriad of circumstances and consequences of the bubble, I have examined this phenomenon from every conceivable perspective. One of the great features of blogging is the constant exposure to other points of view on these issues. 
If there is something I miss, a reader usually points it out. The astute observations have greatly increased my understanding of these issues. For all these reasons, I would compare my understanding of the housing bubble with anyone, and from what I read coming from the economists at the federal reserve, they are still years behind what the readers of this blog already understand.
The federal reserve paper below that is the focus of today’s post is a major leap forward for the federal reserve’s understanding of the housing bubble. The authors conclude the bubble was a financial mania based on the erroneous beliefs of market participants. This is a huge step forward. The paper dispels many of the popular myths surrounding the housing bubble, but they also discount some of its basic truths. In the end, they reveal they have no idea why market participants lost their minds, and thereby erroneously conclude nothing can be done to prevent housing bubbles. As a result of their failure to understand the causal mechanism, they propose policies to mitigate the impact of bubble rather than to try to prevent them. This is very wrong and very dangerous. The result of this ignorance will likely be another housing bubble.
The weakness of this study is its failure to provide a causal mechanism for the bubble. Economists tend to break down into two camps, those that understand large-scale issues, and those that understand the impact of individual incentives: the macro and the micro. This schism in economics is a hindrance to understanding the housing bubble. The reason participants in the housing bubble lost their minds is because they had individual incentive to do so.
Borrowers and buyers saw the opportunity for unlimited wealth and spending power (please see: Desire for mortgage equity withdrawal inflated the housing bubble). Investors saw an opportunity for relatively high yields with little risk. Lenders and loan originators saw opportunity for large fees, and realtors went along for the free ride as they always do. Everyone was making money, even the parties taking on the risk through credit default swaps. Underlying it all was a steadfast belief house prices cannot go down — a delusion reinforced by 60 years of steadily rising house prices. Since no parties to the transaction perceived any risk, and since everyone was profiting from the transactions, the individual incentives were bound to spark demand.
The federal reserve paper fails to understand the incentives of the parties as outlined above. With a huge demand for real estate from everyone concerned, the only thing preventing a bubble was the checks and balances in the system. These include appraisals, underwriting, and government regulation. Each of these was systematically dismantled by the relentless push of high demand. A body of regulations are required to prevent the incentives in the system from removing the barriers in the system that prevent housing bubbles from forming.
For example, when appraisers were made independent, a valuable restraint was put into the system. If appraisers are paid to provide an impartial estimation of value rather than being pressured to “hit the number,” they will function as a natural restraint against exuberant market participants. 
As another example, in Texas, mortgage equity withdrawal cannot exceed 80% of the value of the property. This effectively shuts down the housing ATM and kills the incentive of buyers and borrowers to overpay for HELOC booty because the free money was not forthcoming. Texas did not participate in the housing bubble for this reason. And as an example of the federal reserve’s failure, the lack of regulations on credit default swaps caused a dramatic mis-pricing of risk which gave investors a false sense of security on their investment. It wasn’t just that investors didn’t think prices could go down, they believed they had insurance against loss if they did. Each of the above examples demonstrate where regulations impact the individual incentives, and changing those incentives would change the behaviors of the participants in a way that lessens the likelihood of a future housing bubble.
In the end, the biggest barrier the federal reserve will have in preventing another housing bubble will come from its own member banks. Preventing a housing bubble ultimately means limiting lending. Housing bubble are inflated with air provided by lenders. This paper draws erroneous conclusions largely because the authors don’t want to rock the boat and propose any solution which would inhibit lending. Unfortunately, inhibiting lending is exactly what’s required to prevent another housing bubble.
Twelve Facts That May Surprise You About the Housing Bust
By Nick Timiraos — May 4, 2012
What if the conventional wisdom about the mortgage crisis is all wrong?
That’s the implication of a new paper from economists at the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Boston that’s bound to spark debate because, if their premises are correct, it sharply undercuts the justification for much of the new regulation that’s been erected over the past two years.
Three economists, Christopher Foote, Kristopher Gerardi, and Paul Willen, present two narratives of the financial crisis in trying to answer why so many people made so many dumb decisions.
The first view is that the financial crisis was an “inside job” where various industry players, from the mortgage lenders to mortgage traders, took advantage of unsophisticated rubes, from homeowners to mortgage investors.
This isn’t as much a coherent theory as it is a politically expedient argument used by both sides for supporting different agendas. The political left uses this as a justification for its pandering to loan owners. The political right uses this theory as a reason to shut down the GSEs. Both use sides use half-truths to further their agenda as all politicians do.
They largely discard that view for a second one—the “bubble theory” where delusional attitudes about home prices, not distorted incentives, fueled poor decision making.
No one doubts that mortgage credit expanded, the authors concede, or that many borrowers received loans that they wouldn’t normally have qualified for. “The only question is why the credit expansion took place,” they write. Securitization, for example, didn’t by itself cause the crisis, but instead channeled money “with ruthless efficiency” that “may have allowed speculation on a scale that would have been impossible to sustain” in the past.
The paper is correct in identifying a rapid credit expansion fueled by excessive optimism as the reason house prices went up; however, they utter fail to identify the individual incentives that created the excessive optimism, and therefore they fail to craft useful policy proposals to change those incentives. 
The entire paper is worth reading, but here’s a synopsis of the “12 facts” that help shape their view:
Fact 1: Resets of adjustable-rate mortgages did not cause the foreclosure crisis. The authors find that the 84% of these borrowers who went into foreclosure were making the same payment when they first defaulted as when they took out their loan. The conclusion: adjustable-rate loans performed worse than fixed-rate loans because they attracted less creditworthy borrowers, “not because of something inherent in the ARM contract itself.”
This is half true. ARM resets did not cause problems. They would have, but they didn’t get the chance. First, many borrowers couldn’t afford the teaser rates, so they were doomed to implode even before the reset. Second, falling interest rates made the payment shock much less for many borrowers. The real problem was going to be when the loans recast to fully amortizing loans, but since so few survived to see the payments recast, this ended up not being a problem. In other words, what would have been a problem failed to become one because even more serious problems intervened first. It’s like Lee Harvey Oswald being shot on his way to trial. He was doomed at trial, but he was killed before he even got there.
Fact 2: No mortgage was “designed to fail.” Instead, the products weren’t designed to sustain a drastic decline in home prices.
This is dangerously stupid. Option ARMs can only succeed in a market where prices appreciate faster than the debt accumulates. This is a Ponzi loan, and it should be recognized as such. Both interest-only and negative amortization loans are designed to fail, not by choice, but by the fact they have embedded within them the necessity of increasing prices to sustain the Ponzi scheme.
Fact 3: There was little innovation in mortgage markets in the 2000s. Loans that required reduced documentation (what became known as the “liar’s loan”) or that had negative amortization (the “pick-a-payment” loan) had been around in the 1980s and 1990s. Instead, what happened during the last decade was that these niche products became mainstream.
This is true, but why were these loans allowed to go mainstream? That is a failure of regulation and underwriting.
Fact 4: Government policy toward the mortgage market did not change much from 1990 to 2005. Low down payment loans were introduced by the government…in the 1940s. “It is impossible to find any government housing initiative in recent years that is remotely comparable” to the expansion of government’s expansion in the post-World War II period, the authors write.
This is true, and it’s one of the reasons the political right’s arguments against the GSEs are disingenuous bullshit. Personally, I believe the GSEs should go away, but not for the reasons given by the political right.
Fact 5: The originate-to-distribute model was not new. Secondary mortgage markets, where investors bought loans from originators, had been around since the 1970s. And before that, mortgage companies had sold their loans to insurance companies.
The mechanism that delivered capital to the housing bubble was not the culprit. We need a secondary mortgage market to ensure the nationwide flow of capital where it is needed.
Fact 6: MBS, CDOs, and other “complex financial products” had been widely used for decades. “The idea that the boom in securitization was some exogenous event that sparked the housing boom receives no support from the institutional history of the American mortgage market,” the authors write, though the types of collateral backing those products certainly did change.
CDOs themselves were not the problem. The mis-pricing of risk and thereby the mis-pricing of these assets was the problem. Captured ratings agencies and unregulated credit default swaps were a big part of the problem here.
Fact 7: Mortgage investors had lots of information. Of course, investors may simply have paid less attention to this information because many securities received triple-A ratings. (Some may take issue with this point due to the level of fraud that surprised many of the most well-informed market analysts).
Fact 8: Investors understood the risks. Some mortgage analysts had published “remarkably accurate predictions about losses” if home prices turned down. The bigger question, the authors raise, is that “given how badly these loans were expected to perform, why did investors buy them?”
Investors did have good information, and they did understand the theoretical risk, but they had no concept of the actual risk they took on. Rating agency rubber stamps, and a faith in ever-increasing prices caused them to ignore the risks as a very low probability event.
Fact 9: Investors were optimistic about house prices. This helps answer the aforementioned question.
Everyone was overly optimistic about house prices. This was the central problem of the housing bubble.
Fact 10: Mortgage market insiders were the biggest losers. The firms that were the most involved in the market and which retained the most risk on their balance sheet, either via whole loans (option adjustable-rate mortgages at Wachovia) or securitized loans (at Bear Stearns), fared the worst.
Only stupid mortgage market insiders retained risk. Most cashed out and took their fees. Anthony Mozilo comes to mind.
Fact 11: Mortgage market outsiders were the biggest winners. The “big shorts” such as John Paulson and Michael Burry were relative newcomers to the mortgage market. Their insight about a housing bubble and “not any fact about credit, the origination process, or moral hazard” led them to make their winning bets.
A few brilliant and insightful investors did well, but most outsiders — which includes the clueless sheeple who bought the fantasy — got cleaned out.
Fact 12: Top-rated bonds backed by mortgages did not turn out to be “toxic.” Top-rated bonds in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) did.
This is an unimportant semantic distinction. Everyone who bought mortgage bonds had poorer returns than they anticipated. How much poorer depended on the degree of leverage and the priority of returns.
So what are the implications of these 12 facts? In sum, the housing-finance universe of the future—for both banks and borrowers—should be prepared to withstand greater home-price volatility.
This is their dangerously ignorant conclusion. They are throwing their hands up and saying we can’t prevent bubbles. Nothing could be further from the truth. Many common sense policies could change the incentives in a way to prevent the market participants from either wanting or allowing a new bubble to form. In surrendering when regulators should be fighting practically ensures future housing bubbles. That makes me angry because as a taxpayer, I will undoubtedly be on the hook to pay for the next one.
Does this mean regulators spooning out the wrong medicine? Possibly. “Unfortunately,” the authors write, “none of the new mortgage disclosure forms proposed by regulators includes the critical piece of information that borrowers need to know: There is a chance that the house they are buying will soon be worth substantially less than the outstanding balance on the mortgage.”
Disclosures wouldn’t matter anyway. I told people not to buy homes for nearly five years, and gave detailed explanations of why, and most still didn’t believe me. Any routine disclosure will be routinely ignored by a borrower who believes their house prices will go up and they will get unlimited HELOC spending money.
The only way to prevent future housing bubbles is to change the incentives of the parties. Right now, not just do we lack the political will to do the right things, this federal reserve paper clearly demonstrates policymakers don’t have the requisite understanding to prevent housing bubbles even if they wanted to.
Half a million reasons to overpay for real estate
Personally, I don’t see what is so difficult to understand about how individual buyer’s incentives drove people to pay any price for real estate. Perhaps the concept of mortgage equity withdrawal is too abstract. Readers of this blog have seen documented cases day after day of people like today’s former owners who put $20,000 into a property and got to take $500,000 out. No other investment offers such a lucrative payout. Plus, the loan owner get’s to live in a nice house too. It’s the best of both worlds. As long as the ability to get so much for so little exists, people will have a strong incentive to inflate housing bubbles.
- The former owners of today’s featured property paid $195,000 on 12/20/1993. They used a $175,00 first mortgage and a $20,000 down payment.
- On 6/9/1999 they got their first taste of HELOC booty with a $50,000 bank gift. It must have been well received.
- On 10/6/1999, a scant 4 months later, they went to the housing ATM for another $83,800.
- On 6/29/2001 they obtained a $142,115 HELOC.
- On 7/11/2003 they obtained a $300,000 first mortgage.
- On 10/31/2003 they opened a $99,000 HELOC.
- On 1/3/2005 they obtained a $250,000 HELOC.
- On 8/11/2006 they refinanced with a $570,000 first mortgage.
- On 8/27/2007 they got a $108,100 HELOC.
- Total mortgage debt was $678,100.
- Total mortgage equity withdrawal was $503,100.
- They quit paying in mid 2009 and got to squat for over two years.
This isn’t rocket science. Look at how these people lived. The desire to turn $20,000 into $500,000 is what fueled the housing bubble.
Lake Forest Overview
Median home price is $345,000. Based on a rental parity value of $488,000, this market is under valued.
Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 5 month(s). Momentum suggests improving affordability.
Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased to $221/SF to $223/SF.
Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months.
Median rental rates declined $16 last month from $2,066 to $2,050.
Rents have been rising for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests rising rents over the next three months.
Market rating = 9
Proprietary OC Housing News home purchase analysis 
12 FAIRFIELD Lake Forest, CA 92610
$500,000 …….. Asking Price
$195,000 ………. Purchase Price
8/2/1993 ………. Purchase Date
$305,000 ………. Gross Gain (Loss)
($15,600) ………… Commissions and Costs at 8%
============================================
$289,400 ………. Net Gain (Loss)
============================================
156.4% ………. Gross Percent Change
148.4% ………. Net Percent Change
5.1% ………… Annual Appreciation
Cost of Home Ownership
——————————————————————————
$500,000 …….. Asking Price
$17,500 ………… 3.5% Down FHA Financing
3.80% …………. Mortgage Interest Rate
30 ……………… Number of Years
$482,500 …….. Mortgage
$136,936 ………. Income Requirement
$2,248 ………… Monthly Mortgage Payment
$433 ………… Property Tax at 1.04%
$158 ………… Mello Roos & Special Taxes
$125 ………… Homeowners Insurance at 0.3%
$503 ………… Private Mortgage Insurance
$70 ………… Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$3,538 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
($343) ………. Tax Savings
($720) ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$22 ………….. Lost Income to Down Payment
$83 ………….. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$2,579 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$6,500 ………… Furnishing and Move In at 1% + $1,500
$6,500 ………… Closing Costs at 1% + $1,500
$4,825 ………… Interest Points
$17,500 ………… Down Payment
============================================
$35,325 ………. Total Cash Costs
$39,500 ………. Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$74,825 ………. Total Savings Needed
——————————————————————————————————————————————-
This property is available for sale via the MLS.
Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707
949.769.1599……
sales@ochousingnews.com…..
We're sorry, but we couldn't find MLS # S696613 in our database. This property may be a new listing or possibly taken off the market. Please check back again.
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$475,000 54 CARRIAGE Dr |
0.19 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 1,406 Sq. Ft. |
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$409,900 23 KENDALL Pl |
0.21 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 1,350 Sq. Ft. |
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$599,900 8 MONTECILO |
0.21 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 1,920 Sq. Ft. |
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$434,900 10 CAMERON Cir |
0.22 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 1,600 Sq. Ft. |
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$720,000 4 Montecilo |
0.23 miles 3 bd / 2 ba 1,700 Sq. Ft. |
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$445,000 - |
0.76 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 1,650 Sq. Ft. |
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$460,000 2 TAMBOUR Pl |
0.86 miles 4 bd / 2.75 ba 1,809 Sq. Ft. |
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$475,000 12 BALISE Ln |
0.87 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 1,625 Sq. Ft. |
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$566,000 2 PARTERRE Ave |
1.25 miles 4 bd / 2.75 ba 1,900 Sq. Ft. |
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26 Responses to “federal reserve economists still don’t understand the housing bubble”
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Wow, what an extensive and insightful list…and IR has filled that in with even MORE analysis than this. However, at the risk of speculating: first, the Federal Reserve understands exactly what happened but isn’t stupid enough to print the truth (they knew exactly what happened in 1981 too, same facts, same nonsense) and other frothy situations in history. This is a “whitewash” paper and the more of these that are FED produced, the more the FED can confuse the situation and take all sides. Two things not addressed: First, That the fraud at every level in the bank/finance system was massive, not minor, and involved the usual over and under the table massive payments between major players and even minor ones in unprecedented depth of corruption (what, you think Switzerland made their money on chocolate?). Second, there is a well known “construction bubble” that accompanies surges of easy money/bonus mentality/fraud: first, large numbers of homes/commercial properties are suddenly unavailable to the market (rehabbers, speculators, second homes), thus tightening supply (and also, those who in a rising market ask even so, a “fantasy” price). The FED viewed housing as a minor story compared to the huge dynamo of easy money for go-go retail/office construction. The construction bubble is best observed in Vegas: influx of money, huge hot new projects proposed and easily financed with no equity required; influx of construction workers, high wages to get those workers, further shortage of housing, hiring MORE construction workers by the thousands, land developers, lawyers, realtors, need MORE housing! And when that bubble breaks, the reverse: construction dead, all the ancillary industry dead, negative need for retail, commercial, and housing: all those zillions of construction workers all unemployed or leave town. (except now, as in 1981, they have no where to go). It is the duality of the demographic/income shift with a national collapse of the construction peak/valley syndrome that has swept away property values in Cities where the unemployment rate is actually not all that bad (note: also, huge job shifts of the non-construction jobs remaining, from US to China and Mexico going on, in better paying jobs, especially). Incidentally, the FED is still trying to keep the “save our banks” bubble going with FHA low rates to save the banks/screw the savers, and still ignores the construction cycle collapse and continued collapse of marriage/new households (look at City Data.com for Clark County or Orange County, look at the low marriage rate of those men 30-35, unprecedented). This was not limited to the US, go look at Spain, Greece, Ireland, Iceland…all the same, all the same people and players, really. Keep in mind also, the construction cycle peak was met with unprecedented doubling of US municipal/state/federal longer term debt from 2000-2010 (debt for building things needing construction workers, same cycle).
Great observation. This report does smell like a federal reserve whitewash. All their denials of their role in the disaster do. Their actions more than any other group, including Congress, does more to influence the national economy. For them to say they had no role or responsibility in the housing bubble is ridiculous. They certainly could have prevented one if they wanted to.
LPS: Home Prices Increased, but We’ve Been Down This Road Before
For the first time since March 2010, data from Lender Processing Services (LPS) showed an increase in home prices, but still, the analytics company warned to embrace the positive news with some caution.
Nationally, February 2012 seasonally-adjusted prices rose 0.2 percent, according to the LPS Home Price Index, which incorporated residential sales concluded during February. Not only is the increase a first in almost two years, but it’s also the third increase in five years.
“Reasons for caution are clear, as we’ve been here before. Non-seasonally adjusted prices increased for a few months in early 2009, 2010 and 2011 – trends that all ended by summer, after which all the gains – and then some – were lost,” said Raj Dosaj, VP of LPS Applied Analytics.
Dosaj also added that as seen this month, the previous temporary increases were on low sales volumes – about 30 percent lower than at any point since 1998 and inventory of distressed homes is still high, which will continue to drag on prices.
For March, LPS is predicting a 0.3 percent increase in home prices.
“There have been signs of price declines slowing for a few months now, and our estimates for next month are flat to slightly positive. Without a pickup in sales volumes from their current anemic levels, it’s hard to be more optimistic that the market may be nearing the end of its fall,” said Dosaj.
Also interesting to note is the shrinking gap between foreclosure and short sale discounts.
Based on LPS data, the average difference between the two discounts historically has been closer to 10 percent, but for February, the difference was 6 percent, with a short sale property averaging a 23 percent discount and a foreclosed property averaging 29 percent.
LPS’ HPI showed the U.S. national home price in February to be $195K, which is what the June 2003 average was.
On a more microscopic level, price changes in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) were mixed in February. Of the more than 585 MSAs the LPS HPI covers, prices increased for all 199 MSAs in 20 states.
While average prices did not increase for all MSAs in more than half the states, prices still increased in most MSAs overall, with 334 of them seeing gains.
When looking at the 26 MSAs tracked by both LPS and the BLS, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco saw price declines in February.
On the other hand, Honolulu, Portland, Seattle, and Tampa all experienced gains of more than 1 percent over the month, while Pittsburgh, with clear seasonal variations, has been seeing consistent increases in prices since January 2005.
Rates Continue to Fall Hitting New Lows Amid Economic Concerns
Just when it seemed like rates could not fall any further, Freddie Mac reported fixed mortgage rates sunk even further for the week ending May 10.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.83 percent (0.7 point), down slightly from last week’s average of 3.84 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year was 4.63 percent.
The 15-year fixed also moved downward, ending at 3.05 percent (0.7 point) this week. Last week it averaged 3.07 percent, and last year at this time it was 3.82 percent.
The 5-year ARM dropped to 2.81 percent (0.5 point) compared to 2.85 percent last week and 3.41 percent a year ago at this time.
The 1-year ARM moved up to 2.73 percent (0.5 point). Last week the 1-year ARM averaged 2.70 percent and 3.11 percent a year ago.
“Following April’s weaker than expected employment report, and the French and Greek election results raising concerns over the stability of the Euro currency zone, long-term Treasury bond yields declined allowing fixed mortgage rates to ease to new all-time record lows this week,” said Frank Nothaft, VP and chief economist for Freddie Mac.
Nothaft also noted the 115,000 jobs the economy added in April, which was below the market consensus forecast and less the prior month.
Bankrate.com also reported record low numbers after conducting its survey, which pulls data provided by the top 10 banks and thrifts in the top 10 markets.
The 30-year fixed fell to 4.02 percent, down from 4.05 percent last week.
The 15-year fixed hit a record low number at 3.20 percent, moving downward from the 3.25 percent reported last week.
For the first-time, the 5-year ARM fell below the 3 percent, averaging 2.99 percent this week compared to 3.02 percent last week.
The 3-year ARM tied with its record low of 3.06 percent.
Yep, this was so obvious to see coming. Not sure how you missed this.
Irvine continues to thrive 6 years after the crash. It’s all related. The people buying houses in Irvine took avantage and thrived with the crash.
Irvine inventory not exactly exploding, when’s it coming 2018?
You sold your bonds too early. If you had held the full position, you would be sitting on a fortune right now.
BTW, the data clearly shows your 2009 purchase is worth less than what you paid. See yesterday’s post or the monthly market newsletter to see just how much you have lost.
Uh… the crash is still underway; only being constrained to provide exits for chosen survivors. Also, please explain how a long, slow bleed equates to “thrive(d)”
Thx in advance.
The fractional reserve system is a fraud at inception. Reality is, the fed and its shareholders are way ahead of us with regard to what is currently transpiring.
Do you think the federal reserve is clueless and inept, or are they devious and corrupt? Or is it a combination of both?
It’s easy to predict money making behavior in a capitalist culture.
Is this corruption or should it simply be expected as human nature?
I’m not sure it matters, judging it is a waste of time, it’s reality.
I never thought I would see myself writing this, but it’s good to have you back. You always stir up the astute observations and keep them lively.
Since inflation is merely an extraction apparatus, they’re very calculated with regard to their methods, so I don’t believe they’re clueless/inept at all.
But, within the system, where they’re completely powerless pertains to the self-interest aspects, which can be very destructive. Nonetheless, History is their guide which is precisely how huge fortunes have been amassed over time, by a select few.
Inept?
I doubt It. But I’m 100% sure the federal reserve
I’m 100% sure the federal reserve is a lot smarter than irvine renter.
That’s in the bag
I wondering if our generation will have an Andrew Jackson or some one like him to break up the banking cabal? Or will it break up on it’s own?
The Big Banks got what they wanted by turning America into a massive slot machine. The TBTF banks cannot be trusted under any circumstance. It’s just a matter of time before one of them blows up …
JPMorgan Chase’s $2B Loss: Why CEO Jamie Dimon Should Resign, Simon Johnson Says
Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) tumbled Friday morning after the firm shocked investors Thursday evening by disclosing a $2 billion trading loss.
The revelations provide more evidence “the banks cannot manage their risk,” says MIT Sloan School professor and former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson. “We need to get our [banks] out of this crazy business before they do more profound damage to all of us.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/jamie-dimon-resign-over-jpm-big-loss-simon-142308640.html
When given copious amounts of free money, the banks decided to take on risk. Who would have guessed that?
Bernanke is ultimately to blame for this. The fact that he didn’t have the foresight to see what the banks would do with their free money is astonishing. And yes, Jamie Dimon should resign for his stupidity in losing $2B when they could have made a billion investing in government bonds.
I guess the most angering part of this is that the banks NUMBER ONE JOB is to manage risk. They are suppose to underwrite all risk with malicious attention. But, when they’re given free money, and the upside is huge, and the downside is without consequences, they gamble like a drunk idiot at the 21 table.
This is simply outrageous! Why have these scumbags not faced reform? What in the hell is stopping the congress from breaking these casinos up?
There aren’t enough people like you and I who see what they are doing. The occupy movement was a start, but they lost their way pandering to loan owners and embracing other stupid left-wing causes. If they had focused their efforts on curbing Wall Street excesses through tough and substantive regulation, they might have made a difference.
btw, if the fed REALLY wanted to resolve insolvency issues related to housing, the $trillions printed would have flowed to the banks thru distressed homedebtors.
A lot of that money did with HARP and HAMP and other government loan owner bailouts.
Indeed, but those programs only re-price total debt, not reduce it.
Have you heard of the HHF program it’s another program? It was new to me.
Due to one important adjustment, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can soon start accepting funds to be applied towards reducing principal balances in California.
Different from simply writing off principal or forgiving principal, the GSEs instead, may accept dollars provided through the Hardest Hit Fund (HHF).
MORE
I fully support HARP 3.0! Although to pass, we’ll need a solid Obama victory coupled with healthy gains by democrats in the House and Senate. Then I’ll be able to refinance saving maybe $1,500 monthly, but I’ll probably pay $1,500 more monthly in taxes.
“…Speaking on a conference call Friday, Donovan heralded a bill introduced this week by Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., that encourages homebuyers who don’t have a Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Federal Housing Administration-backed loans to refinance…”
http://www.housingwire.com/news/hud-three-bills-will-complete-obamas-refinancing-initiative
It might all be moot anyway. I’m seriously considering a cash-in refi right now. I love the idea of strategic default – just don’t have the desperation nor the balls to pull it off…
Painful though it may be, a cash-in refinance solves the problem for you permanently. It’s a solution worth considering.
[...] in place that would prevent these unstable loan programs from resurfacing. In fact, in the recent fed whitewash paper on housing, they actually defend the use of these loan programs — or at least their failure to regulate [...]