Aug252008

I Was Wrong, It’s Worse…

Several people have asked about the accuracy of my post Predictions for the Irvine Housing Market. I have the DataQuick numbers through April of 2008, so we can take a look. First, when I first made the chart below, I did not have accurate numbers. The base number I used of $687,000 was incorrect.

original_predition_2007

Using the three-month moving average of prices, the real number was $723,750. With this new, more accurate number, we can compare the projected drop with the real figures.

original_versus_actual_2013

 

Well, it is even worse than I imagined. When I first suggested that Irvine’s median home price might decline 12% in a single year, it was a bold prediction. Prices had never dropped that much in Irvine — ever — much less in a single year. Given the condition of the market, I felt the number was conservative, but to see it actually drop more than my prediction is remarkable. I guess the bulls should be glad, it isn’t as bad as bad can get:

worst-case