Homebuilders believe the feel-good nonsense printed in trade journals and industry media outlets and often rely on this information to make bad decisions.
https://missafricausa.org/hdjnk6hbj3 
“Freedom is the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”
https://integraleuropeanconference.com/2022/11/17/6nz1ire1n George Orwell
As someone who worked in the homebuilding industry for over 20 years, I often drank housing kool-aid with my co-workers. Although I remained grounded enough to see the obvious housing bubble of the 00s, many of my co-workers refused to acknowledge it, sometimes with heated arguments.
The homebuilding industry, like many others, has it’s own trade journals and industry news aggregators that keep people informed on happenings that impact the everyone who makes a living from home construction. But rather than seeing their mission as one of providing accurate and actionable information, most of these industry news sources see their job to provide emotional therapy and good news to keep everyone’s spirits up. Why is that?
https://pastiebap.com/site-news/xb38ffeb I suppose in any cyclical industry prone to brutally difficult downturns, the desire for good news and optimism is understandable; however, what astounds me is that the decision-makers who direct the flow of hundreds of millions of investment dollars consume this same bullshit, and worse yet, they rely on it to guide their decision making.
Buy Diazepam Bulk The current CEO of a major development company in Irvine convinced Wall Street investors to spend $650 million to buy the Great Park at the peak of the housing bubble. He gave speeches about how Orange County house prices would continue to rise at a rapid rate forever due to strong fundamentals. Where do you think he was getting this information?
https://militaryanalizer.com/139zwztej After the housing bust exposed every fundamental assumption behind Orange County house prices were a delusional fabrication of wishful thinking promulgated through a compliant media, it would be logical to assume the decision makers at major homebuilders and developers would be ousted for their catastrophic lack of good judgment, but that’s not what happened. Most were left in charge, many were promoted, and some were bailed out.
Buy Soma Online In Usa The media outlets that provided the bad information that stoked the magical thinking of the housing bubble actually increased their delusional “happy talk” during the bust to keep people’s spirits up. Emotional support is fine, but people who need that should seek out professional help, not supporting bullshit in the local news.
The poster child for Bubble-Era bullshit was David Lereah, formerly of the NAr, but the economists for the homebuilders were only slightly less wrong, and most of them are still busy putting out their erroneous forecasts designed to foster good feelings among the faithful.
Economists Predict Robust Housing Starts in 2015
NAHB chief economist forecasts 26% growth and 800K single-family starts
https://kevinreillycollection.com/c1s6tr8 By Tim Regan, January 20, 2015
https://www.angelinvestmentnetwork.net/bbln3br8ap Three economists today shared their predictions regarding 2015 housing starts at the “Housing and Economic Outlook” seminar during this year’s International Builders’ Show (IBS) in Las Vegas.
https://missafricausa.org/61vt2ha4x The panel of economists was composed of David Crowe, the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), David Berson, senior vice president and chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, and Frank Nothaft, chief economist and vice president at Freddie Mac.
Buy Diazepam Msj A who’s who of often-wrong forecasters.
https://victoriamapperley.co.uk/g3ctkop “Single family housing starts will increase 26 percent to 800,000 a year,” said Crowe. “That is still well below a normal level of about 1.3 or 1.4m starts,” he added. “While it’s a good year, it still leaves us a good distance away from where we need to be.” …
Nothaft also predicted a modest rise in home prices. “We’re expecting house prices to continue to rise in 2015 at 3.5-4 percent rise in values in 2015,” he said.
https://www.greenlifestylemarket.com/2022/11/17/26ljs0f9si … said Berson. “Homeownership desire is much higher for those who are in their 30s than those in their 20s.” As the economy gains steam in 2015, Berson predicts it will be a “significant factor” in encouraging millennial household formation.
https://integraleuropeanconference.com/2022/11/17/6n0laifazb I wonder how many homebuilders will overextend themselves in 2015 based on these predictions?
https://victoriamapperley.co.uk/zsh23wkq Remember Bold California housing market predictions for 2015?
Most economists who bother to make predictions offer vague predictions that allow them to claim clairvoyance even when they completely blow it. Further, some of these economists rewrite history to claim they predicted something they didn’t with hopes that nobody calls them on it.
https://markmadsen.com/2022/11/17/uy5oha9 Most economists make weak, timid and obvious predictions based on a repeat of past performance. If you look at the long stretch of time, sales volumes increase, and house prices go up about 3% to 4% per year. Predicting increasing sales and 3% to 4% appreciation really isn’t predicting anything, other than perhaps a belief that what’s happened on average in the past will happen again this year. Of course, that’s what most economists are predicting for 2015.
It’s time to market forecasters to admit the errors of their ways
https://pastiebap.com/site-news/u7ahbm5p By Barry Ritholtz, January 16
https://www.bobbimccormick.com/8333w99q I come not to praise forecasters but to bury them.
https://care4needycopts.org/x1nldld5vq After lo these many years of listening to their nonsense, it is time for the investing community — and indeed, the seers themselves — to admit the error of their ways. Most forecasters are barely cognizant of what happened in the past. And based on what they say and write, it is apparent (at least to this informed observer) that they often do not understand what is occurring here and now.
Generic Xanax Online Cheap So there’s no reason to imagine that they have the slightest clue about the future.
Economists, market strategists and analysts alike suffer from an affinity for making big, frequently bold — and most often, wrong — pronouncements about what is to come. This has a pernicious impact on investors who allow this guesswork to infiltrate their thinking, never for the better.
https://www.greenlifestylemarket.com/2022/11/17/zgmlke9 Over the last few years, several people have offered astute observations criticizing ardent housing market bears like Keith Jurow or Mark Hanson for making bold predictions that haven’t come to pass. The common thread is that people are upset because they made a financial decision based on the arguments made by the forecasters, and rather than take responsibility for their own decisions, they want to lay blame on the forecaster.
https://www.angelinvestmentnetwork.net/1h99wx6d Right or wrong, most forecasters believe in their own forecasts, and many put their own money where their mouth is and accept the consequences. But no matter how self-assured the forecaster may be, they could be wrong, and people shouldn’t put blind faith in any forecaster and make the forecaster responsible for personal financial decisions, particularly when those forecasts are offered for nothing on the Internet.
https://missafricausa.org/pkb4erf44xl 
The Mainstream strategy is simple: Take the average annual change in whatever the subject at hand is and extrapolate forward a year. Voila! You have a mainstream forecast. … If you are feeling puckish, you can shade the numbers slightly up or down to separate your prediction ever so slightly from the rest of the pack — just to keep it interesting. …
https://thebirthhour.com/65llw8v9q9n The tight range of most market forecasts — forecasts that often prove wildly inaccurate — demonstrates the truth of what Barry is saying.
https://militaryanalizer.com/8nnxo3e Human beings, in general, stink at predicting the future. All of you. History shows us that people are terrible about guessing what is going to happen — next week, next month, and especially next year.Why is that? In my last column, I noted that people are error machines, a mess of biases and emotions. They seek out, read and remember only that which agrees with their thinking.
… expert forecasts are statistically indistinguishable from random guesses.
We are all guilty of confirmation bias. Once we come to believe certain general principals, we all seek confirming evidence from our environment and ignore contrary information.
Does anyone remember Janet/truthi from the OC Register blog? (She had many other aliases). She used to spam the real estate blog with 100 comments a day trying to convince everyone there was no housing bubble. She is the case study in using denial to support a crumbling world view.
It is important for investors to understand what they do and don’t know. Learn to recognize that you cannot possibly know what is going to happen in the future, and any investment plan that is dependent on accurately forecasting where markets will be next year is doomed to failure.
Never forget this simple truism: Forecasting is marketing, plain and simple.
As Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
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Economists See Housing-Market Pickup
Economists outline reasons they will be wrong
… Still, the economists noted that the market continues to face significant challenges.
David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, noted that 10% of homes with mortgages remain underwater, or worth less than what the borrowers owe on the home. He also noted that household formation—the biggest indicator of future home buying—remains sluggish, particularly among homeowners in their 20s, 30s and 40s.
The economists also pointed to student loan debt as a looming cloud over the housing market. Student loan debt has increased across all age groups, Mr. Nothaft said, with more than 40% of households between 20 and 29 with student debt as of 2013.
Moreover, those with student debt now tend to have less education making repayment more difficult. In 2001 more than 70% of those indebted households had at least a graduate degree, compared to about 35% in 2013.
“Today’s young people have the same desire for home ownership as their parents, but they recognize that they may have to delay that transition to home ownership,” Mr. Nothaft said. “It may not even happen when they’re in their thirties. It may be older in their life before they can transition.”
Seriously underwater properties decrease 2.2 million in 2014
This is the reason for all lender can-kicking
There were 7,052,570 U.S. residential properties seriously underwater — where the combined loan amount secured by the property is at least 25% higher than the property’s estimated market value — representing 13% of all properties with a mortgage at the end of 2014, according to the latest report from RealtyTrac.
The number and share of seriously underwater homeowners at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014 were both at their lowest levels since RealtyTrac began tracking home equity trends in the first quarter of 2012 and are down from a peak of 12.8 million seriously underwater homeowners representing 29% of all homeowners with a mortgage in the second quarter of 2012.
“With price escalation returning home values to near peak levels, homeowners who have positive equity have options before they face foreclosure,”
First mortgage default rate surges to its biggest monthly increase since September 2013
December was the fifth consecutive month with increasing national consumer credit default rates
The first mortgage default rate experienced its biggest monthly increase since September 2013, rising by five basis points from 0.97 percent in November up to 1.02 percent for December. The second mortgage default rate took a leap of 11 basis points, up to 0.59 percent for December.
The national composite default rate, which includes first and second mortgage defaults as well as those on bank cards and auto loans, increased by four basis points up to 1.11 percent from November to December.
“December was the fifth consecutive month with increasing national consumer credit default rates,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Increases also occurred in some recent months in mortgages and auto loans. While the economy is strengthening and consumer spending is gaining, wages have shown little growth. The large drop in oil prices benefits consumers’ disposable income and should limit consumers’ financial stress. Default rates remain very low but could be a cause for concern if the rising trend gains strength.”
Had a friend who was a developer. In 2006 I warned him about the market and he told me with a straight face that real estate will do nothing but go up and up. Same with the stock market. When you speak so much BS you start to believe it !
P.S. Forgot to say he lost EVERYTHING !
I can understand the ordinary citizens and homeowners who believed all the BS because despite their believe to the contrary, they aren’t experts. What was truly shocking about the housing bubble was that people who should have known better chose to believe the same BS, and as you noted, they all paid the price.
Well, actual ‘price discovery’ is no longer being tolerated since ~y2k, thus, homebuilders need to consume/espouse optimistic BS so they can sell people something mispriced. Simple as that. Same for realtors, bankers, economists, and all of the sell-side
analystsshill-stooges paraded across the CNBC stage on a daily basis.That’s an interesting idea. How do you sell something that is grossly mispriced due to heavy-handed manipulation of the market, particularly after a market crash? I remember in 2010 the housing market happy-talk reached a feverish pitch as the MSM tried everything possible to convince everyone the bottom was real. Then again they repeated the song and dance in 2012. At least that time they got lucky and the manipulations worked. It wouldn’t surprise me that many fools believe the change in sentiment caused by endless market cheerleading made the difference.
I’ve been very impressed with the realtors/sales people at new developments. I rarely hear the really dumb annoying arguments that were so common in the bubble run-up. I’ve only heard the argument once, that “Well, you want to act soon because rates are going up.”
When you read a headline that states “economist says” do you immediately assume it’s complete nonsense? I do.
Economist Breaks Down Why Obama Omitted Housing Policy From State of the Union Address
Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko suggested three reasons why housing policy was omitted from the address: the urgency has faded; the most pressing housing challenges are local, not national; and the best housing policy is economic policy.
The urgency has faded. In Trulia’s latest housing barometer released last week, home sales, home prices, and delinquencies were measured at more than three-quarters of the way “back to normal” (i.e. pre-recession levels). The GSEs and the FHA are enjoying profitability again and the excesses of the housing bubble (overbuilding and loose lending) have been corrected, according to Kolko. “And, with the homeownership rate near two-thirds, most of the middle class are homeowners who care about their home values, which areup year-over-year in 97 of the 100 largest metros,” Kolko wrote.
The most pressing housing challenges are local, not national: Kolko asserts that the challenges facing today’s housing market such as foreclosures and affordability are “ultimately local.” The states with the highest foreclosure rates are generally judicial foreclosure states (such as Florida and New Jersey), meaning the process has to go through the courts to be completed and therefore takes much longer. Affordability has returned to near pre-crisis levels in many major metros in New York and California, according to Trulia. “An essential solution to high housing costs – building more – depends on local rules and regulations, not national policy,” Kolko wrote.
The best housing policy is economic policy. Many analysts and economists, including Kolko, believe that full housing recovery depends on millennials (the 25- to 34-year-old age group) finding good jobs and moving out of their parents’ houses. It also depends on income growth that will allow first-time buyers to save enough for a down payment, which is the top obstacle to homeownership. Employment among millennials was the one indicator in Trulia’s housing barometer that was lagging (less than 50 percent back to normal). “The housing market depends most on the economic recovery – and economic policy was a centerpiece of tonight’s speech,” Kolko wrote.
What’s interesting to me about industry analyst rags is that they are never held to account on accuracy. The importance of accuracy (low rates of error) is minimized or utterly ignored, so how can they demand trust?
Sensationalism is what really matters. This is reflected in our financial news media big time. It’s a proverbial clown show.
Be first or be the most sensational. Then you win.
Providing accurate analyses that predict market downturns to an acceptable deviation can be just as valuable financially to an industry (companies, employees, consultants, etc.) as accurate analyses suggesting a major upturn.
What’s needed is on time, accurate analyses – whether good or bad, so people can best prepare.
Show me an industry with tons of government intervention, no trusted advisors, and I’ll show you one chronically sick industry with a lot of pissed off and jaded participants.
“Sensationalism is what really matters. This is reflected in our financial news media big time. It’s a proverbial clown show.
FTFY
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financialThat it?
I had a few spare minutes, so thought it would be a good time for a gold update….
Last month gold was about $675 away from hitting $500. Today, gold is $802 away from $500, so it looks like gold has entered its acceleration phase of NOT “hitting $500 and staying there”
CheersLMAO!
GLD @ $110 was brilliant.
Nicely done!
Trade still open? Just curious.
Barely. Passed my target, probably exit tomorrow. Pigs get slaughtered and all that. 😉
Err – hogs. Oink.
As you know, I sold all of my gold when it was above $1,600 and I warned you and others to do the same. Needless to say, you didn’t listen and took a major bloodbath as a result.
Instead of being gracious and admitting I got it right, you try act as if my prediction was wrong even though gold hit a new cyclical low just a few months back. I never said gold would go down in a straight line. You know that financial markets don’t act like that.
All I can assume is that this is the only consolation you have. It helps salvage your pride over the untold thousands of dollars you lost by not listening to me. Sad really.
Total rubbish!
You haven’t got a clue if you got anything right(selling it all @$1600)simply because should gold ever trade >$1600 at ANY given point in time, you got it wrong. jus say’n 😉
Also, as far as getting your prediction right, or me acting like you got it wrong, lets review the actual prediction that prompted my initial gold post above…
Mellow Ruse says:
Buy Valium India June 28, 2013 at 12:43 pm
el numeraire is toast.
Gold is a bubble. The selloff is not recent. It has been going on for two years. What has changed is that we’ve entered the acceleration phase of the decline.
My prediction: Gold will bottom at $500 and stay there.
———————————————————-
POG date of your prediction: $1190
POG today: $1302
“ You haven’t got a clue if you got anything right(selling it all @$1600)simply because should gold ever trade >$1600 at ANY given point in time, you got it wrong. jus say’n ;-)”
Dude, while you’ve been losing money I’ve been reinvesting the proceeds of my sale. You can pick any mainstream asset class and it has beaten gold since that time. Gold would have to go a lot higher than $1,600 for me to be wrong, simply due to the opportunity costs involved.
The fact that gold has declined in the face of steadily declining rates should be especially worrisome to you.
Mellow Ruse says:
June 28, 2013 at 12:43 pm
el numeraire is toast.
Gold is a bubble. The selloff is not recent. It has been going on for two years. What has changed is that we’ve entered the acceleration phase of the decline.
My prediction: Gold will bottom at $500 and stay there.
When will gold bottom at $500? This year? Next year? Five years? More?
What do you mean by, Soma 350Mg Tab entered the acceleration phase of the decline.? And if I have misquoted you, please clarify.
Or, when well gold reach a price of $100?
Sorry, meant $1000, not $100.
Just curious, if someone bought a home in 1990, watched the value fall through the nineties, and sold the home at a profit in 2000, did that person lose untold thousands in your opinion? When they were living in their home in 1995 and were underwater, had they lost untold thousands, in your opinion?
Do you think people should listen to you and act on your advice on financial matters, such as buying or selling a house or buying or selling gold?
Do you think people can make money by listening to you? Has your net worth or the net worth of others increased substantially from your insight?
Is someone mistaken or stupid or uninformed if they buy a home to live in without regards to the possible future appreciation or depreciation? Is someone mistaken or stupid or inconsolable if one buys gold for some other reason than for it’s appreciation in dollars?
Is your gold buying and selling advice applicable to people in other countries who use currencies other than the dollar?
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