SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO

May 162013
 
New report may kill the home mortgage interest deduction

Home ownership hurts the economy. That’s the startling conclusion of a new report that demonstrates a strong correlation between high rates of home ownership and high rates of unemployment. While correlation may not be causation, the correlation is too strong to be ignored. Whether or not home ownership itself is the cause of unemployment is debatable, but whether it does or not, the report will be useful to politicians who need political cover to scale back the home mortgage interest deduction. I’ve covered the merits of the home mortgage interest deduction in many posts. The bottom line is that the [Read More...]

Mar 252013
 
Will the deflating bond bubble cause housing to crash again?

With as difficult as it is to predict interest rates, why are people so sure interest rates will go up? Well, the basis of all interest rates is the federal funds rate controlled directly by the federal reserve. This rate is not just at a historic low, it’s at zero. It can’t go any lower unless the federal reserve starts paying people to borrow money. This strongly suggests that interest rates will go up. The federal funds rate has been at zero for nearly four years now. When short-term rates are very low, investors looking for higher returns are forced [Read More...]

Mar 202013
 
Borrowers who strategically defaulted early on made the best choice

I first began writing about strategic default back in 2008 in the post Should you walk away from home debt?. Many people were facing a cost of ownership greatly exceeding the cost of a comparable rental, and with declining prices, they were sinking underwater and had no realistic hope of future equity. On a purely financial basis, it was wise to strategically default. The shortest path to equity was to walk away from the huge debt, save money, and wait until the credit scores improved enough to repurchase again at lower prices. I gave that advice frequently from 2008 through [Read More...]

Feb 152013
 
Saving the banks and baby boomers at the expense of future buyers

Baby boomers came to look at housing as an investment that would provide for their retirement. Owning a primary residence is a solid part of a retirement financial plan, but when house prices took off during the bubble, baby boomers responded by spending more money, retiring early, and slowing their saving and investment in other areas. As a result, many baby boomers were completely unprepared for retirement when house prices crashed. In response, Ben Bernanke lowered interest rates to zero to attempt to reflate the asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate to restore the illusory wealth of the [Read More...]

Feb 062013
 
Should the government back new subprime mortgages?

The government needs to get out of housing finance. The losses at the GSEs apporach $150 billion, and the FHA needs its own bailout. These are losses all of us who didn’t participate in the madness get to pay. And as long as the government continues to back 90% or more of loans for residential real estate, the very real possibility of another even larger bailout looms. Given these realities, government policy makers have been and should be focused on reducing the government’s exposure and minimizing taxpayer bailout dollars. However, in a stunningly stupid proposal, some housing advocates idiots are [Read More...]

Jan 302013
 
Menendez, Boxer plan bill to transfer bank losses to US taxpayer

Politicians and bureaucrats proposed many bailouts ostensibly to benefit homeowners that really benefit banks. Loan modifications are a classic example. Politicians crafted these programs to “keep people in their homes” when they merely transferred a few more payments to the banks before the borrower imploded. Each time they bring out a new program or proposal, it’s always sold on the merits to “struggling homeowners.” The best thing for most loanowners would be to put them out of their misery in a foreclosure, but that would cost the banks billions of dollars, and politicians would have to listen to the sob [Read More...]

Jan 092013
 
The foundation of a sustained economic recovery: household debt burden hits 29-year low

Many times over the last six years, I made the argument that lower debt service burdens are the key to a sustained economic recovery. Bankers and the federal reserve want to see an expansion of credit for completely self-serving reasons. They point to times in the past when an expansion of credit fueled economic growth as evidence of its necessity for a vibrant economy. Perhaps it’s partially true. An expansion of asset-backed debt is good for the economy, but most credit expansions involve the populace taking on huge amounts of signatory debt, and expansions of signatory debt invariably lead to [Read More...]

Jan 012013
 
What will impact housing in 2013?

It’s human nature to dream about the future. What’s going to happen next year? We all have dreams and aspirations, and the beginning of the year is usually a time of hope and optimism about the future. For those of us interested in real estate markets, it’s time to take a look at the big issues that will impact the direction of pricing, sales and affordability over the coming 12 months. With so much market manipulation, the future prices of homes largely depends on what policies come of of Washington and the boardrooms of the major banks. The old days [Read More...]

Dec 242012
 
Real estate negotiation techniques (redux)

Negotiating the sale of residential real estate is no more difficult that negotiating for any other product of service that does not have a fixed price; however, due to the colossal cost of houses, the process is more important financially than negotiating for other big-ticket items like automobiles. A mistake made while buying or selling a house could cost as much as a new car; sometimes such mistakes could pay for many cars. Skilled negotiators can obtain favorable pricing and terms without the assistance of a broker, but the novice who is inexperienced at this process often will not. Novice [Read More...]

May 302012
 
Top ten ways to protect taxpayers against Ponzi mortgage theft

How do we taxpayers protect ourselves against Ponzi mortgage theft? Prior to the collapse of the housing bubble, when lenders gave free money to loan owners, it was theirs to give — and to lose. But when the losses overwhelmed our banking system, the government took conservatorship of the GSEs, and they backstopped the largest banks with our too-big-to-fail guarantees. With those two steps and the dramatically increased market share of the FHA, the government now assumes nearly all risk of loss in the US mortgage market. With taxpayers absorbing future losses through explicit and implicit guarantees, lenders have every [Read More...]

May 032012
 
The housing bottom may persist for several more years

Economists particularly enjoy calling the inflection points in the market. Much fanfare surrounded Calculated Risk’s calling the bottom back in March. He may or may not be proven correct. The data on falling inventory certainly suggested a bottom was in the making, and even if he is later proven wrong, I doubt the real bottom will much farther down. Further with the delays in reporting on Case-Shiller, it won’t be known until more than a year from now when the decline from this fall and winter’s drop is tallied. He will be correct for at least a year. One way [Read More...]

Apr 042012
 
Why should we prevent housing bubbles?

Part of living in California is deciding whether or not to play the California housing lottery. If you win, you could gain hundreds of thousands of dollars. If you play, you could spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and endure the consequences. If you lose, you could lose hundreds of thousands of dollars and end up homeless, destitute and bankrupt. But just like gamblers flock to the casinos, everyone believes they can be a winner, and now with our bailout culture, nobody believes they can lose either. In the Great Housing Bubble, I noted this about bubbles: Why should anyone [Read More...]

Mar 212012
 
America Underwater

The housing bubble has many lessons to teach us. I have written on the subject for five years now in hopes that people can learn from the successes and failures of those impacted by the housing bubble. Someone recently posted a link in the thoughtful remarks to a website devoted to those who are underwater. It’s a chance for people to share their stories. As you might imagine, this is a giant pity party and a support group for housing bubble losers. Below is a selection of stories as well as some others I have collected over the years. Personal [Read More...]

Feb 112012
 
realtor flop in San Juan Capistrano

Today’s featured property was emailed to me by a reader who thought it suspicious. It was listed at well under its comparable market value, and it went pending immediately. This reader contacted the listing agent what the pending price is, and he was told $1,000,000. He followed up by asking if he could submit a backup offer for more than $1,000,000. What do you think the listing agent said? A scrupulous listing agent looking out for the best interest of her client would take as many offers as possible, and she would be excited about a backup offer higher than [Read More...]

Jan 172012
 
Homebuyers remain income-challenged, wealth-challenged, and debt-constrained

Affordability in many markets is at record highs. Even here locally, houses are more affordable on a monthly payment basis than any time in the last decade. Yet, houses are not selling. Why is that? Income growth is stagnant due to the weak economy and job picture, the housing wealth of the entire nation has all but evaporated, and many potential home buyers have high debt burdens from a combination of student loans and rampant credit-card borrowing during the 00s. In short, everyone is tapped out. Last week I spoke of my disdain for most economists. Nouriel Roubini is another [Read More...]

Jan 102012
 
Pent up housing supply far larger than latent demand

Ordinarily, housing market pricing gets pushed up to the limit of affordability. Chronic shortages of housing keep prices high, and homebuilders respond by providing new homes to meet the demand. In short, demand nearly always outpaced supply. In the aftermath of the housing bubble, that is no longer the case. Many of the houses built during the rally of the housing bubble were a response to artificial demand caused by unstable loans being given to people who didn’t have the capacity to repay the debt. As a result, homebuilders produced many homes that were not necessary, and to make matters [Read More...]