LAGUNA NIGUEL

Feb 182013
 
Affordable house prices are the best economic stimulus

Affordable house prices are the best economic stimulus. Housing costs make up the largest proportion of a households monthly budget (besides taxes). If this amount were smaller, if it made up a smaller portion of a household’s monthly budget, then they would have more money to spend on other goods and services and stimulate the local economy. It isn’t rocket science; it’s just common sense. However, greed and shortsightedness cause many to desire house prices that increase in price rapidly and attain levels of affordability that price most out of the market. Eventually such extremes lead to a crash, but [Read More...]

Dec 122012
 
Head of GSEs Edward DeMarco faces replacement, unfortunately

Edward DeMarco is a thorn in the side of the Obama administration. He has consistently resisted calls to pander to loanowners by forgiving principal on GSE loans. Many on the political left are calling for his head, and the Obama administration is poised to oblige them — and that’s not appropriate. DeMarco has proven to be a thoughtful administrator who protects the interests of the US taxpayer. Of course, that’s the problem many politicians have with him. They want to raid the coffers of the treasure to buy more votes. If DeMarco is replaced by someone who will allow politicians [Read More...]

Nov 072012
 
50 years for house prices to reach peak levels without another bubble, Shiller

Many markets in Orange County barely corrected during the bubble collapse. Many of the most desirable markets are already selling for more than peak values due to the stimulus intended to revive the rest of the national market. This will be the story over the next few years as some markets inflate mini-bubbles in reaction to stimulus while some markets languish under the weight of shadow inventory liquidations. Over time, the substitution effect will kick in and the markets will reestablish the equilibrium they once had prior to the housing bubble. Of course, that assumes politicians stop stimulating and manipulating [Read More...]

Oct 172012
 
How strong is the housing recovery, and what could reverse it?

What would make a strong foundation for a recovery? First, a housing recovery should be built on solid job growth — something that isn’t happening. Job growth of high-paying jobs would translate to more mortgage originations and purchases by owner occupants. Since job growth stimulating owner-occupant purchases should be the foundation of a recovery — and since that isn’t happening — the recovery is being built on a shaky foundation. The recent price rally — call it a housing recovery if you wish — is built on two things: 1) lender restricted inventory, and 2) low interest rates. If either [Read More...]

Oct 112012
 
Low interest rate mortgages still require stellar credit scores

The availability of credit cycles from periods of tight underwriting standards to periods of lax standards. When credit is tight is when credit-fueled markets like real estate are most stable. In a tight credit environment, lenders are very focused on ensuring the borrower can repay the loan and the lender can recover their capital if they don’t. It would seem obvious and intuitive that lenders would always be focused on those things, but competition tends to drive standards down as lenders take more risk.  In the early stages of the credit cycle, lenders begin extending credit to less creditworthy borrowers. [Read More...]

Jul 252012
 
Second mortgages hold short sellers hostage

Why do short sales take so long? Basically, banks don’t want to take a loss, and short sales cause them to lose money — a lot of money. Short sales come in two basic varieties; properties with second mortgages and properties without. If a property does not have a second mortgage, short sales are generally quicker and easier to approve. The first mortgage is often covered by mortgage insurance, and as a percentage of the total loan amount, any losses are generally small. If a property has a second mortgage — and millions do — then the situation becomes much [Read More...]

Apr 172012
 
How will lenders liquidate their upcoming foreclosures?

This year lenders drastically reduced the number of REO they are getting at auction. The numbers are down 62% over this time last year. Further, they have reduced their MLS inventories by nearly 20% from last year’s levels. Apparently, lenders are going to continue to reduce MLS inventory until prices bottom to reverse the two-year slide. This unexpected change is a desperate move to stop the market’s downward spiral. It means we will likely see depleted MLS inventories through the spring selling season and into the fall. At that point, the new crop of REOs from today’s default notices will [Read More...]

Mar 132012
 
Is 2012 housing payment affordability really much better than 2006?

House prices still seem very high in Orange County. The most recent median home price reading is $375,000, and houses sell for around $260/SF. Many potential buyers still lament the high cost of housing in Orange County, and compared to the late 1990s, house prices are much higher than inflation alone would dictate. So are house prices still too high? Compared to the 1990s, house prices are too high, but compared to the peak of the housing bubble in 2006, prices are much, much more affordable, particularly on a monthly payment basis. Consider this, in July of 2006, mortgage interest [Read More...]

Mar 052012
 
Steering: why realtors love short sales and banks should shun them

I have written a few times about flopping: realtors who sell REO for under-market prices to favored buyers. (see Flopping: unscrupulous realtors deceive lender clients and profit from fraud, Floppers: realtors who profit by ripping off their lender clients, and most recently realtor flop in San Juan Capistrano.) A flopper doesn’t get the highest and best price for the property. The practice of flopping is unethical because the agent shirks their fiduciary responsibility to the seller to favor a buyer, most often for a kickback or promise of a future commission on the flip. Flop sales exasperate buyers who miss [Read More...]

Jan 222012
 
Hottest Listings in Orange County 1-21-2012

Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. See what everyone else finds so interesting. 4 WHEELER Irvine, CA 92620 — $610,000 Competing Listings $725,000 5 HANCOCK 0.2 miles 3 bd / 2 ba 1,900 Sq. Ft. $675,000 30 JACKSON 0.28 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,453 Sq. Ft. $798,000 51 Bluecoat 0.32 miles 4 bd / 2 ba 2,721 Sq. Ft. $629,000 13802 TYPEE Way [Read More...]