COTO DE CAZA

Apr 052013
 
Low MLS supply hurting sales but boosting prices

The reality of our current housing market is simple; banks are limiting the supply, and the few buyers in the market are bidding prices higher; this despite the fact that Orange County home resale volumes are very weak by historic norms. I recently reported how the banks transformed must-sell shadow inventory into can’t-sell cloud inventory by stopping their foreclosures on delinquent mortgage squatters. In the process, Banks have become the largest players in the REO-to-rental space.The current state of affairs favor the bank’s interests, so it’s unlikely banks will change their policies any time soon. They are content to amend-extend-pretend with [Read More...]

Jan 082013
 
The distinction between good debt and evil debt

I make no secret of my disdain for the behavior of bankers during the housing bubble. I’m not so extreme that I consider all borrowing and lending to be evil; however, I draw a clear distinction between what I consider good debt, useful for economic efficiency, and bad debt, useless and unproductive that results in misallocations of capital and human suffering. Surprisingly enough, the line separating the two is clear and easy to calculate and quantify. Signatory versus asset-backed debt Not all debt is created equal. asset-backed debt is collateralized by a cashflow-producing asset. The income stream is being used [Read More...]

Dec 052012
 
The failure of loan mods will cause a new wave of foreclosures

I am constantly amazed by the ignorance of the mainstream media when it comes to housing issues. They consistently cheer-lead, take the NAr’s statements at face value, and fail to question their rosy assumptions. This behavior provides people bad information and may cause someone to buy who might otherwise chose to rent if they knew the truth. There are many good reasons to buy today as values are well below historic norms, but people should be given accurate information in order to make an informed decision. That’s not what people get from the mainstream media these days. Today’s featured article [Read More...]

Nov 152012
 
The FHA is giving loans to Ponzis to reenter the housing market

Do we really want to let Ponzis back into the housing market? There is a large group of people who’ve proven to be completely irresponsible with mortgage debt as evidenced by my daily debtor debacles. I wrote yesterday that Pent-up demand from boomerang buyers may not materialize, but isn’t stopping the FHA from trying. I have no problem with peak buyers whose only mistake was poor timing from reentering the housing market, but do we really want to let the irresponsible Ponzis back in? And do we as taxpayers want to be on the hook when they resume their old [Read More...]

Nov 062012
 
Orange County housing market rising due to restricted inventory

In late 2011, the valuation metrics in the OC Housing News Report became very bullish. Due to low interest rates and slowly deflating prices, the cost of home ownership relative to rent fell far below historic norms. In other words, it was much cheaper to own than is usually is. Despite the falling prices, the valuations were attractive, and this report began issuing strong buy signals. Those that trusted that advice bought at what appears to be the bottom of the market. Only time will tell if the spring 2012 bottom is durable. In spring 2012, lenders dramatically slowed their [Read More...]

Aug 062012
 
2.7 million California households pay at least half their income for housing

One hundred percent of those who lost homes in foreclosure suffered from excessive debt — 100%. The total amount of debt is important, but the terms of repayment are far more critical. The monthly payment (plus taxes, insurance and other costs) must be a manageable percentage of the borrower’s income, otherwise the borrower is likely to default. Historically, this value was 28% or less, then it was expanded to 30%, and now the GSEs underwrite to 31%. Debt-to-income ratios higher than this are proven to have accelerating default rates absent Ponzi borrowing. Thirty-one percent doesn’t sound like an onerous percentage [Read More...]

Aug 012012
 
GSE regulator DeMarco says NO principal reduction

In what can only be described as the best decision of the housing bust a from regulator, Federal Housing Finance Agency’s head Edward DeMarco said there will be no principal reduction on Fannie and Freddie loans. He will be loudly criticized, particularly from left-wing panderers, but Mr. DeMarco understands that Moral hazard is the central issue in housing bust, and giving away free money to loan owners is never a good idea. Millions of loanowners will be crushed by this news. Everyone who doesn’t want to see their tax dollars squandered to bail them out will rejoice. Regulator says no to [Read More...]

Jun 192012
 
Woman wins lottery, buys house, HELOCs $2M+, and spends it all

I have profiled many stories of the capricious nature of the housing bubble and how it impacted people for better and for worse. The daily HELOC abuse posts have covered the odious behavior of borrowers from all walks of life. Usually I relegate those stories to the bottom of the daily posts because they are so common they no longer rise to the definition of “news.” However, when I discovered today’s featured property I was astounded at the scale of the HELOC abuse. When I did a search on the name of the owner I came across an interesting back-story [Read More...]

Mar 122012
 
Delinquent mortgage squatting ends in 2012

The lending Ponzi scheme that inflated the housing bubble popped in August of 2007 with a credit crunch. Lenders realized their collective folly and abruptly stopped lending to prevent further losses. Without the lender air needed to sustain the bubble, house prices abruptly collapsed, and millions of borrowers who never could afford their payments gave up trying. The surge in mortgage delinquencies far outpaced the ability of lenders to process foreclosures and absorb them in the resale market. Rather than accumulate 10 million REO or push house prices back to 1990s levels through an MLS fire sale, lenders decided to [Read More...]

Feb 112012
 
Hottest listings in OC 2-11-2012

Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. See what everyone else finds so interesting. 21562 SADDLE RIDGE Way Yorba Linda, CA 92887 — $698,000 Competing Listings $975,000 21515 DUNROBIN Way 1.02 miles 5 bd / 4.5 ba 4,271 Sq. Ft. $785,000 22355 ROLLING HILLS Ln 1.08 miles 5 bd / 4 ba 4,450 Sq. Ft. $1,395,000 5020 GREENHAVEN St 1.11 miles 5 bd / 4.75 ba [Read More...]

Dec 312011
 
Coto De Caza finally drops below rental parity

This prime Coto de Caza property is on the golf course. It hasn’t appreciated in value over the last 9 years. It’s a beautiful home with few negatives. The current cost of ownership is below rental parity as many are now in this community. – —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- [Read More...]

Dec 162011
 
Lower conforming limit causes 84% decline in loan volume

In Los Angeles and Orange Counties, the conforming loan limit dropped from $729,750 to $625,000 on October 1, 2011. Many market bulls claimed this would have no effect on sales. In November sales of houses with loans between $625,000 and $729,750 declined 84% as compared to last November. So much for having no impact. In other news, the falling prices are beginning to motivate some buyers as evidenced by the small increase in sales volume. Falling prices and increasing sales are prerequisite to forming a durable market bottom. SoCal home sales rise on declining prices by KERRY CURRY — Wednesday, [Read More...]