SOUTH OC

REO-to-rental investors will restore balance to the housing market

 LADERA RANCH, NEWS  Tagged with: ,
May 162012
 
REO-to-rental investors will restore balance to the housing market

Statistics across most markets show rents are going up. The monthly OC Housing market report has shown steadily declining prices and steadily increasing rents over the last two years. Resale prices are falling because loan owners are being forced out of homes they can’t afford, and the resulting REOs and short sales are deflating the housing bubble. These same former loan owners end up becoming renters which increases demand for rental houses. Ordinarily, if loan owners were becoming renters, prices [Read More...]

 34 Responses »

Obama extolls HELOC abusing Ponzis as “responsible” homeowners

 NEWS, RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA  Tagged with: ,
May 142012
 
Obama extolls HELOC abusing Ponzis as "responsible" homeowners

President Obama has lost his mind. I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised that Obama would embrace HELOC abuse as a good idea. After all, Obama HELOCed his home in Illinios before he became president. Personally, I find this outrageous. Our commander-in-chief, the leader of our nation, has embraced HELOC abuse as a noble behavior that should be encouraged by a taxpayer bailout. The dipshits who lose their home from excessive borrowing should be given a pass, and everyone who [Read More...]

 40 Responses »

federal reserve economists still don’t understand the housing bubble

 LAKE FOREST, NEWS  Tagged with: ,
May 112012
 
federal reserve economists still don't understand the housing bubble

As the author of The Great Housing Bubble, I am an authority on the housing bubble. As someone who has written daily about the myriad of circumstances and consequences of the bubble, I have examined this phenomenon from every conceivable perspective. One of the great features of blogging is the constant exposure to other points of view on these issues. If there is something I miss, a reader usually points it out. The astute observations have greatly increased my understanding [Read More...]

 25 Responses »

The housing bottom may persist for several more years

 NEWS, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO  Tagged with:
May 032012
 
The housing bottom may persist for several more years

Economists particularly enjoy calling the inflection points in the market. Much fanfare surrounded Calculated Risk’s calling the bottom back in March. He may or may not be proven correct. The data on falling inventory certainly suggested a bottom was in the making, and even if he is later proven wrong, I doubt the real bottom will much farther down. Further with the delays in reporting on Case-Shiller, it won’t be known until more than a year from now when the [Read More...]

 4 Responses »

Would rental parity analysis in appraisals prevent another housing bubble?

 NEWS, RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA  Tagged with:
May 022012
 
Would rental parity analysis in appraisals prevent another housing bubble?

I have long contended that rental parity is the fundamental value of houses. Whenever values differ significantly from rental parity, up or down, reversion to the mean is inevitable. Buyers should be aware of rental parity because paying more than rental parity significantly limits a buyers options. First, such a buyer cannot rent the property to cover the bills, so if they had to move, they either must sell the property or endure an indefinite period of negative cashflow. Since [Read More...]

 25 Responses »

The fear of homelessness is the basis of America’s economic system

 LAKE FOREST, NEWS  Tagged with: , ,
Apr 232012
 
The fear of homelessness is the basis of America's economic system

Modern American culture can trace its roots on the North American continent to pioneering English settlers. Life on the frontier is harsh, and each family unit is self-reliant. In a frontier society, if people didn’t work, and if they didn’t produce their own food and shelter, then they died. Fear of death from starvation or exposure was very real, and anyone who wasn’t motivated to produce something of value to themselves or others faced the near certainty of painful death. [Read More...]

 17 Responses »

The case against another catastrophic housing market crash

 ALISO VIEJO, NEWS  Tagged with:
Apr 192012
 
The case against another catastrophic housing market crash

In my view, the housing market here in Orange County is entering a three to five year period of spring rallies and fall declines with prices likely to flatten. The low end may appreciate while the high end will likely come down. That makes me somewhat bearish, certainly not bullish, but neither do I believe we will see another 20% to 30% leg down in the market to match the one we already witnessed. The first drop in the market [Read More...]

 14 Responses »

How will lenders liquidate their upcoming foreclosures?

 LAGUNA NIGUEL, NEWS  Tagged with: ,
Apr 172012
 
How will lenders liquidate their upcoming foreclosures?

This year lenders drastically reduced the number of REO they are getting at auction. The numbers are down 62% over this time last year. Further, they have reduced their MLS inventories by nearly 20% from last year’s levels. Apparently, lenders are going to continue to reduce MLS inventory until prices bottom to reverse the two-year slide. This unexpected change is a desperate move to stop the market’s downward spiral. It means we will likely see depleted MLS inventories through the [Read More...]

 33 Responses »

Distressed sales cannot be excluded when analyzing the market

 MISSION VIEJO, NEWS  Tagged with:
Apr 162012
 
Distressed sales cannot be excluded when analyzing the market

A common meme in the realtor community is that distressed sales, REO and short sales, are somehow not part of the market. It’s a common misconception shared by agents, sellers, and some misguided housing market analysts. This idea emanates from the desire to see prices rise. Every seller wants to get a premium price, and agents are prone to pander to seller delusions to get listings. When the market moves the other way, agents have to explain to sellers why [Read More...]

 12 Responses »

Rancho Santa Margarita down 8.9%

 RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA
Apr 122012
 
Rancho Santa Margarita down 8.9%

Rancho Santa Margarita Overview Median home price is $334,000. Based on a rental parity value of $529,000, this market is under valued. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 2 month(s). Momentum suggests improving affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased to $223/SF to $224/SF. Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months. Median rental rates increased $0 last month from $2,231 to $2,231. Rents have been [Read More...]

 2 Responses »

The new normal in housing: cheaper to own than to rent

 MISSION VIEJO, NEWS  Tagged with:
Apr 102012
 
The new normal in housing: cheaper to own than to rent

Californian’s believe it’s supposed to cost more to own an home than to rent one. It’s one of the biggest misconceptions in real estate. It’s so deeply engrained that even the so-called experts don’t question it. Renting is supposed to be more expensive than owning. Renters have mobility and no responsibility for maintenance, insurance, taxes and other expenses. The main reason anyone would pay more to own than to rent is because they foolishly believe they will be financially compensated [Read More...]

 20 Responses »

Mortgage Fraud Has Moved From Subprime To FHA

 ALISO VIEJO, NEWS
Apr 072012
 
Mortgage Fraud Has Moved From Subprime To FHA

I want to introduce you to the Strategic Deals Law Blog. In their own words, “Strategic Deals Law Blog offers insights into the complicated world of business transactions, bringing clarity and the tools needed to make your business a success.” The blog is written by clear-thinking practicing attorneys who really know what’s going on. Mortgage Fraud Has Moved From Subprime To FHA By Jim Petros on March 16th, 2012 Posted in Real Estate In a November 2011 Special Report by the [Read More...]

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Current trends in the OC housing market: 4-7-2012

 ANAHEIM, BUENA PARK, GARDEN GROVE, IRVINE, LAKE FOREST, RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA, SANTA ANA
Apr 072012
 
Current trends in the OC housing market: 4-7-2012

The OC Housing News profiles properties for sale each day and presents current market data on each city in Orange County. If you really want to know what’s happening in the OC Housing market, you need to read the OC Housing news and subscribe to the our monthly newsletter. Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the [Read More...]

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Why should we prevent housing bubbles?

 NEWS, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO  Tagged with:
Apr 042012
 
Why should we prevent housing bubbles?

Part of living in California is deciding whether or not to play the California housing lottery. If you win, you could gain hundreds of thousands of dollars. If you play, you could spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and endure the consequences. If you lose, you could lose hundreds of thousands of dollars and end up homeless, destitute and bankrupt. But just like gamblers flock to the casinos, everyone believes they can be a winner, and now with our bailout [Read More...]

 16 Responses »

Lake Forest is more than 20% undervalued

 LAKE FOREST
Mar 302012
 
Lake Forest is more than 20% undervalued

Lake Forest Overview Median home price is $324,000. Based on a rental parity value of $457,000, this market is under valued. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 3 month(s). Momentum suggests improving affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis declined from $224/SF to $220/SF. Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months. Median rental rates declined $8 last month from $1,940 to $1,931. Rents have been rising [Read More...]

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Bernanke erroneously claims Federal Reserve didn’t cause the housing bubble

 ALISO VIEJO, NEWS  Tagged with:
Mar 292012
 
Bernanke erroneously claims Federal Reserve didn't cause the housing bubble

The Federal Reserve did not directly cause the housing bubble. The lowering of interest rates in 2002 did help boost prices and may have served as a precipitating factor contributing to the housing bubble, but monetary policy of the Federal Reserve itself was not the cause. That doesn’t mean the Federal Reserve doesn’t have significant responsibility for the housing bubble. The primary cause of the housing bubble was the influx of private capital into the mortgage market through mortgage-backed securities. [Read More...]

 13 Responses »

America Underwater

 NEWS, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO
Mar 212012
 
America Underwater

The housing bubble has many lessons to teach us. I have written on the subject for five years now in hopes that people can learn from the successes and failures of those impacted by the housing bubble. Someone recently posted a link in the thoughtful remarks to a website devoted to those who are underwater. It’s a chance for people to share their stories. As you might imagine, this is a giant pity party and a support group for housing [Read More...]

 20 Responses »

B of A’s foreclosure push is hitting the MLS

 NEWS, RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA  Tagged with: ,
Mar 192012
 
B of A's foreclosure push is hitting the MLS

Last fall I documented Desperate for cash: BofA cuts 30,000 jobs, ramps up foreclosures and Bank of America foreclosure notices increase 116%, spring 2012 rally doomed. It’s spring now, and although current bank inventory on the MLS is low, the pipeline of foreclosures is still quite large, and now properties B of A began foreclosing on last fall are already coming to market (see today’s featured property). It has begun. Home repossessions set to jump in 2012 By Jon Prior [Read More...]

 24 Responses »

OC Housing News market rating system: Where is it safe to buy?

 LADERA RANCH, NEWS  Tagged with: ,
Mar 152012
 
OC Housing News market rating system: Where is it safe to buy?

I developed the OC Housing News Market Newsletter to provide information on the local housing market useful to potential homebuyers. I believe people make good decisions when given good information. We all know the information provided by realtors on the housing market is manipulated to motivate buyers to act. realtors numbers are rarely accurate, and like the boy who cries wolf, nobody believes the realtor who cries buy. I also follow a philosophy of constant improvement. When I first published [Read More...]

 25 Responses »

Is 2012 housing payment affordability really much better than 2006?

 LAGUNA NIGUEL, NEWS  Tagged with: ,
Mar 132012
 
Is 2012 housing payment affordability really much better than 2006?

House prices still seem very high in Orange County. The most recent median home price reading is $375,000, and houses sell for around $260/SF. Many potential buyers still lament the high cost of housing in Orange County, and compared to the late 1990s, house prices are much higher than inflation alone would dictate. So are house prices still too high? Compared to the 1990s, house prices are too high, but compared to the peak of the housing bubble in 2006, [Read More...]

 23 Responses »

Delinquent mortgage squatting ends in 2012

 COTO DE CAZA, NEWS  Tagged with: ,
Mar 122012
 
Delinquent mortgage squatting ends in 2012

The lending Ponzi scheme that inflated the housing bubble popped in August of 2007 with a credit crunch. Lenders realized their collective folly and abruptly stopped lending to prevent further losses. Without the lender air needed to sustain the bubble, house prices abruptly collapsed, and millions of borrowers who never could afford their payments gave up trying. The surge in mortgage delinquencies far outpaced the ability of lenders to process foreclosures and absorb them in the resale market. Rather than [Read More...]

 18 Responses »
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