SAN CLEMENTE

Apr 152013
 
Can the Fed reflate the housing bubble without negative side effects?

Economists say there is no free lunch. Apparently, those economists don’t work at the federal reserve. Interest rates are near record lows, and the federal reserve has been printing money to buy $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities to reduce mortgage rates further and provide direct stimulus to the housing market. The reason they’re doing this is simple, Banks are still exposed to $1 trillion in unsecured mortgage debt, and if the federal reserve doesn’t make house prices go up to restore collateral backing to underwater borrowers, the too-big-to-fail banks will fail. Whatever misgivings many critics may have of federal [Read More...]

Mar 062013
 
Banks are still exposed to $1 trillion in unsecured mortgage debt

Loanowners across the country are deeply underwater, and they have been offered numerous bailouts in the form of loan modifications and assistance programs, refinance opportunities, and interest rate subsidies, plus plenty of lip service from politicians who feel their pain. This has all been a ruse, a diversion from the government’s real efforts to save the banks. Today’s featured article is about the poor loanowners who are still $1 trillion underwater. Some are so hopelessly underwater that they won’t see equity again in their lifetimes. They are renting from the bank with a feeble hope of equity in some far [Read More...]

Jan 282013
 
Think you want consumer debt? Think again...

Warning! Don’t read today’s post if you have a weak stomach or a strong affinity for consumer debt. This is your only warning. Hang on, Alice, as we bolt through the rabbit hole on an adventure to financial Wonderland. Come with me on a fantastic journey to the Great Lakes to save fish falling prey to evil bloodsuckers, and along the way we will save borrowers from the evil of debt peddler, Louie the Lender Lamprey. The Sea Lamprey and the Great Lakes Prior to canals of the nineteenth century, the Great Lakes were a thriving fishery. With over fishing and the introduction of the [Read More...]

Jan 152013
 
How the new mortgage rules will impact the housing market

When Congress took on the task of regulating the excesses of the mortgage industry, it ostensibly wanted to prevent a recurrence of the housing bubble. To that end, they passed the Dodd-Frank finance reform. One of the provisions of Dodd-Frank was to establish a “qualified mortgage” that establishes the parameters of what constitutes a “safe” mortgage product unlikely to cause another housing bubble. To this end, they solicited advice from various sources to come up with an appropriate set of standards. In Preventing the Next Housing Bubble, the final chapter of the book, I addressed what it would take to [Read More...]

Nov 082012
 
Timing the housing market is important

When I developed the OC Housing News Report, one of the biggest challenges was to develop a rating system that would time the housing market to maximum advantage. As we’ve all seen over the last few years of constant government manipulation, its very hard to pick the exact bottom, and although it looks like the bottom was earlier this year, that is not yet certain. Changes in government or banking policy could easily result in more foreclosures finding their way to the MLS causing prices to fall again. Despite these challenges, there are certain key indicators one can look for [Read More...]

Oct 092012
 
California home prices won't reach the peak until 2026

Assume for a moment that house prices have bottomed. This still isn’t certain, but it’s looking more and more each day like the bottom is in. The final piece to the puzzle that convinced me house prices weren’t going to reverse course came when Ben Bernanke announced the federal reserve was going to purchase $40B per month in mortgage-backed securities for as long as it takes to make housing and employment to come back. Further, to reiterate his commitment to the policy he stated, “We’re not going to rush to begin to tighten policy. We’re going to give it some [Read More...]

Oct 022012
 
Will reflating the housing bubble deny home ownership to the middle class?

Super low interest rates have allowed today’s homebuyers to bid home prices up near peak levels in many areas. This helps lenders recover more capital from the bad loans they made during the housing bubble, which is why the federal reserve is intent on driving mortgage interest rates even lower. As a result of all this artificial stimulus, price-to-income ratios have remained elevated far above historic norms. Unless interest rates are going to remain this low forever, one of three things must happen: either house prices must go down further, debt-to-income ratios must increase, or wages must go up. Higher [Read More...]

Sep 262012
 
No jobs means no housing demand

I have posted the chart on the lack of owner-occupant demand dozens of times to remind everyone that current demand is far weaker than what’s widely reported. But that’s not to say demand will remain weak forever. There is latent demand from two large groups that currently can’t buy homes: the credit impaired and the unemployed. The millions of former owners who have damaged credit from either a short sale or foreclosure represent a large reservoir of future demand. When these people save for a down payment, wait out any mandatory waiting periods, and regain their credit scores, most of [Read More...]

Sep 112012
 
Some creditworthy families will always be denied mortgages

When you were in high school, did your parents ever caution you about the company you keep? The people you share common interests with can be either a positive or a negative influence on your decision making. They can lead to to success, or they can lead you astray. When lenders want to evaluate a potential borrower, they don’t interview friends, but they do examine the financial characteristics of a borrower’s life, and they make determinations based on the historical behavior of others with the same characteristics. That’s the whole point of a FICO score. The Fair Isaac Corporation built [Read More...]

Jul 242012
 
HELOC abusers and lenders face day of recast reckoning

Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) were the favored tools of Ponzis during the housing bubble. These were used like a credit card with an ever-expanding credit balance that didn’t need to be paid back because the house was paying for it. Most borrowers viewed this as truly free money, and they behaved accordingly. This influx of spending drove the economy during the first half of the 00s, and the elimination of this stimulus and the subsequent need to repay this debt is what’s causing our economic doldrums today. HELOCs are similar to other revolving lines of credit with a [Read More...]

Jun 202012
 
realtor manipulations: using WTF priced houses to make others look reasonable

Have you ever gone into a high-end retail store to look at a sale item advertized at 50% off? When you see the asking price you think to yourself, 50% off a WTF asking price is still way, way too high, right? realtors play that game too. And what’s really shocking is that they openly admit it. They actually admit to manipulating buyers with false comparables to convince buyers outrageous house prices are reasonable. What do you expect from a profession that trains its salespeople at the Gap? Overpriced ‘setup’ houses are used to sell other nearby homes Real estate [Read More...]

Jun 042012
 
FHA foreclosures increase 73%, mostly from 2008 and 2009 bad loans

FHA has always been the lender of last resort. It was started in 1934 during the depths of the Great Depression to provide mortgage lending at a time when private money wouldn’t do it. Of course, by then the housing market had bottomed, so the FHA loans from the Great Depression didn’t cause huge losses, and since there was almost no other mortgage lending during that period, it was a welcome jump start to a beleaguered housing market. That isn’t the function the FHA played in the collapse of the Great Housing Bubble. FHA was loaning money when nobody else [Read More...]

May 222012
 
California downgrades loan owners, diverts bank extortion booty to others

Many loan owners made mortgage payments over the last few years when they would have benefited more from strategic default. Many of those loan owners were motivated by the false hope of a government bailout bringing principal reduction or other goodies. California led these sheeple down the path and garnered much public attention for the tough stance the Attorney General took in favor of loan owners. Everyone rejoiced. Loan owners could taste the debt relief. Kamala Harris stoked her political ambitions as a pandering lefty. The banks got relief from further lawsuits. There was only one problem. Governor Jerry Brown [Read More...]

Mar 282012
 
San Clemente prices down 9.4%

San Clemente Overview Median home price is $566,000. Based on a rental parity value of $517,000, this market is fairly valued. Monthly payment affordability has been worsening over the last 2 month(s). Momentum suggests worsening affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased to $275/SF to $275/SF. Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months. Median rental rates declined $33 last month from $2,216 to $2,183. Rents have been rising for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests rising rents over the next three months. Market rating = 4 Proprietary OC Housing [Read More...]

Feb 212012
 
High-end loan owners strategically defaulting in large numbers

Loan owners with big incomes believed house prices were going up forever. They bought houses they could barely afford because they believed the additional cost of ownership over renting would provide them with a return on their investment. Buying a house was part utility through providing shelter and part investment through capturing rapid appreciation. Of course, the actions of buyers willingly overpaying for houses drove prices higher in a self-fulfilling prophesy. Like all Ponzi schemes, it went on until the supply of greater fools was exhausted and lenders stopped enabling the insanity. Now that high-end loan owners are accepting the [Read More...]

Jan 052012
 
Potential buyers wisely choose to rent during a bust

When house prices were going up, everyone wanted to own to capture appreciation. When house prices started going down, those who recognized the trend wisely chose to rent instead. As the bust drags on even the most kool aid intoxicated are beginning to see the wisdom in renting. Better to throw your money away on rent than to throw it away on interest to support a depreciating asset. 6 Reasons Why Buying A Home Is Like Throwing Away Money Girls Just Wanna Have Funds | Jan. 1, 2012, 10:04 AM Most people see buying a home as a part of [Read More...]