WESTMINSTER

May 172013
 
Loanowners are in no hurry to list and sell their houses

I postulated that loanowners would begin listing their homes as soon as prices reached near-peak levels when they could get out without completing a short sale. Upon further reflection, I’ve concluded that we may not see many more MLS listings once loanowners are above water. We will certainly see some, and we are seeing some of these WTF listing prices now, but the cloud inventory may remain in the clouds until rising housing costs force these over-extended borrowers to leave. Conversation with a loanowner I recently had an extended conversation with a loanowner who doesn’t make enough money to afford [Read More...]

Nov 202012
 
Rising down payments and loan costs will hinder a housing recovery

Besides credit qualification barriers due to low FICO scores, there are two barriers to originating more loans and selling more houses to owner occupants: (1) insufficient down payment, and (2) increasing loan costs. The FHA still originates loans at 3.5% down, and the credit barriers are limited, despite realtor pleas and rhetoric to the contrary. However, since the FHA is losing a great deal of money and facing a bailout, they are continually raising their insurance fees as they become the replacement for subprime lending. These increasing costs are making houses less affordable and thereby reducing access to credit. As [Read More...]

Oct 122012
 
Orange County monthly cost of ownership falls to 1980s levels

Each month before I prepare the OCHN market newsletter, I think about ways I can improve it and deliver more value to users. This month, I added a new metric to the report that I believe provides a more intuitive way to look at the current state of the market. I applied the mortgage interest rate to the median home price to backward calculate the monthly cost of ownership for the market. I like this approach because it returns a number immediately comparable to rent. When I first thought about this indicator, I didn’t think it would reveal anything of [Read More...]

Aug 242012
 
Generation pwned: for loanowners under 40, 48% are underwater

Pwned. A term originally coined by mistake when the word “owned” was misspelled by a video game programmer. The word has come to symbolize domination of one party over another, and it’s a particularly appropriate term for loanowners who bought a house hoping to “own” it, and instead they find themselves being “pwned” by the house. I first wrote about this phenomenon in 2008: Generation Y began buying starter homes in earnest during the Great Housing Bubble. Generation X is just now coming into their prime earning years, and many of them bought move-up homes at inflated bubble prices. The [Read More...]

Jul 232012
 
Prime season existing-home sales plummet 6.9 percent in West

The consensus among economists for June home sales was that sales volumes would continue to increase. Proving their fallibility, the consensus of economists was wrong — very wrong. June and July are typically the best months for sales volume in the prime selling season, and sales volumes dropped in every region in the US. A large decline in existing home sales is further evidence that the house price bottom the consensus of economists is also predicting is in jeopardy. Nominal prices are moving higher, but it isn’t based on the strength of demand, it is due to the restriction of [Read More...]

Jun 282012
 
Appraisers resist pressure to reflate the housing bubble

You knew the complaints about appraisers was coming, didn’t you? The low supply is generating bidding wars on certain properties, resulting in contract prices far in excess of recent comparable sales. When the appraisal doesn’t support the contract price, the buyer generally cannot make up the difference and the deal falls apart. Agents don’t get commissions. Rather than entertain the notion that the contract price was too high, agents blame the appraisers for killing the deal. One of the most aggravating and ignorant arguments to come from this is that the market should determine the price. Whatever two parties agree [Read More...]

Apr 142012
 
Is it time to formally make “Single Asset Real Estate” entities ineligible to file for bankruptcy?

Have you ever come across some really in-depth writing on involved topics on the internet? It’s pretty rare. I try my best at the OCHN to give a greater level of depth than what people find in the mainstream media, but there are others out there who take it to another level entirely. Last weekend, I introduced you to the Strategic Deals Law Blog. In their own words, “Strategic Deals Law Blog offers insights into the complicated world of business transactions, bringing clarity and the tools needed to make your business a success.” The blog is written by clear-thinking practicing attorneys [Read More...]

Apr 032012
 
FHA mortgage premium may rise to 2.05% and delay the recovery

Over the last five years of falling real estate values, the government and federal reserve has done everything in its power to prevent the price collapse. The FHA was pressed into service as a replacement for subprime lending, and it became the only financing available for first-time buyers with less than 20% down. The current FHA minimum down payment is only 3.5%, which effectively puts every buyer underwater when transaction costs are factored in. Since the FHA has originated over a trillion dollars in loans, most of which are underwater, and since prices are still falling, the delinquency rate on [Read More...]

Mar 242012
 
Mortgage deleveraging to continue

The amend-pretend-extend policy of lenders is designed to avoid recognizing losses. They hope to replace their old bad loans with good new ones. So far they have been successful at keeping this bogus debt on their books. The result is millions of delinquent borrowers in shadow inventory. Fannie economist: Mortgage deleveraging yet to end By Jon Prior • March 19, 2012 • 11:01am Households shed mortgage debt each month for more than one year now, but the deleveraging has yet to end, according to Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. Either through payoffs or foreclosure, total U.S. mortgage debt dropped [Read More...]

Feb 202012
 
HUD's Donovan: latest dumbass to embrace principal forgiveness

Anyone who has read my writing before knows I don’t think principal forgiveness is a good idea. I believe principal forgiveness is the worst policy option because foreclosure Is a superior form of principal reduction. I don’t think I am being cynical when I say that the Obama administration is pushing principal forgiveness in an attempt to buy votes. Any economic benefit the policy may have is outweighed by the moral hazard it creates and the unfairness of the distribution of benefits. The most irresponsible borrowers obtain the greatest benefit from this policy. By rewarding them and buying their votes, [Read More...]

Feb 182012
 
Hottest Listings in Orange County 2-18-2012

Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. 9291 PARLIAMENT Ave Westminster, CA 92683 — $389,900 Competing Listings $419,500 15932 COMMONWEALTH Pl 0.11 miles 3 bd / 1.75 ba 1,291 Sq. Ft. $457,000 9281 JASMINE Ave 0.31 miles 4 bd / 1 ba 1,390 Sq. Ft. $385,000 16351 JODY Cir 0.92 miles 4 bd / 2 ba 1,327 Sq. Ft. $419,900 10131 BEVERLY Ln 0.97 miles 4 [Read More...]

Feb 112012
 
Hottest listings in OC 2-11-2012

Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. See what everyone else finds so interesting. 21562 SADDLE RIDGE Way Yorba Linda, CA 92887 — $698,000 Competing Listings $975,000 21515 DUNROBIN Way 1.02 miles 5 bd / 4.5 ba 4,271 Sq. Ft. $785,000 22355 ROLLING HILLS Ln 1.08 miles 5 bd / 4 ba 4,450 Sq. Ft. $1,395,000 5020 GREENHAVEN St 1.11 miles 5 bd / 4.75 ba [Read More...]

Jan 282012
 
Hottest Listings in Orange County 1-28-2012

Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. See what everyone else finds so interesting. 335 FLYERS Ln Tustin, CA 92782 — $375,000 Competing Listings $639,900 53 DEL CAMBREA 0.82 miles 3 bd / 2.25 ba 1,683 Sq. Ft. $595,000 33 SPARROWHAWK 0.83 miles 3 bd / 1.75 ba 1,545 Sq. Ft. $614,900 8 STAR THISTLE 0.87 miles 3 bd / 2 ba 1,587 Sq. Ft. $594,900 [Read More...]

Jan 022012
 
Mortgage delinquencies at major banks still more than 12 times normal

A new study from Office of the Comptroller of the Currency showed mortgage delinquencies at major banks at 12% when it is normally less than 1%. Many of these mortgages are shadow inventory where banks have been allowing delinquent mortgage squatters to stay rent-free for years. Also, foreclosures are increasing rapidly as the banks are finally accepting rising prices will not bail them out, so they are going to have to clear out the delinquent borrowers on their own. Amend, extend, pretend is dead. Mortgage Default Is A Financial Bonanza For Many Homeowners As Foreclosure Crisis Continues December 22, 2011 [Read More...]