Monday, in the post Can the Fed reflate the housing bubble without negative side effects?, I discussed the various market distortions resulting from the federal reserve’s zero-interest-rate policy. The inflated asset values are byproducts of the fed’s actions, but with respect to housing, the distortion of market prices is what the federal reserve wants to happen. To make the stimulus have good effect, lenders stopped foreclosing on delinquent mortgage squatters and hoped to bait them into temporary loan modifications with the carrot of rising home prices. The slowdown in foreclosures caused the MLS inventory to evaporate. The result of the [Read More...]

Government subsidies are like drugs. Once the market is exposed, the participants quickly become dependent, and like any addict that goes through detox, getting off the subsidies can be very painful. The housing market completely relies on government supports and subsidies with over 95% of the loans underwritten in the United States backed by either the FHA or the GSEs with explicit government backing for any losses. Politicians claim they want to reduce the government’s footprint in housing finance, but the various interest groups who make a living from residential real estate transactions (realtors, mortgage brokers, homebuilders) are united in [Read More...]

Everyone active in the real estate market today laments the lack of available inventory. Orange County housing market prices are rising due to the restricted inventory. Banks are focus on loan modifications and short sales to resolve their prior bad loans. In the interim, delinquent mortgage squatters are enjoying their free ride. Earlier this year, the State of California passed the Homeowner Bill of Rights (Detailed review of the new changes to California foreclosure law). In the new law, banks are no longer allowed to pursue dual-track foreclosure processing. If a loanowner is seeking a loan modification, the process must be [Read More...]

With the serious problems facing the housing market including high delinquency rates creating a massive shadow inventory, a weak economy, tepid demand from owner-occupants, excessive consumer debt, a depleted buyer pool due to credit impairment, and artificially low interest rates, it’s a wonder housing prices aren’t still heading straight down. The recent uptick in prices is largely due to a successful attempt by the lending cartel to restrict for-sale inventory on the MLS. Without this inventory restriction, prices would almost certainly be headed lower. At some point, the shadow inventory of delinquent mortgage squatters will be cleared out. The liquidation [Read More...]

Usually when you come across a homebuying advice article, it’s a puff piece put out by realtors. These articles usually emphasize the emotional aspects of buying a home, ignore the troubles and potential downside, and try to create urgency to motivate buyers to act. In other words, homebuying advice articles are generally self-serving NAr bullshit. Today’s featured article from the Wall Street Journal was surprisingly different. Either that, or the changing market conditions have made these articles less objectionable. I’ll let you decide. Yea! Home Prices Hitting Bottom. Now, the Bad News. WSJ — July 14, 2012, 9:16 p.m. ET [Read More...]