GARDEN GROVE

May 212013
 
Corelogic: home price appreciation to wane in 2013

Despite speculators hopes to the contrary, home price appreciation is expected to slow down in 2013 according to a new forecast from Corelogic. So far the rapid increase in prices is due to a small uptick in demand, entirely from investors, and a dramatic decrease in MLS inventory. Both of these factors are likely to change in ways that limit future price increases. In the short term, prices of any asset are determined by fluctuations in the balance between supply and demand. The manipulation of the housing market by lenders is taking advantage of this phenomenon by restricting supply and [Read More...]

Apr 022013
 
Orange County home resale volume very weak by historic norms

A lie, if repeated often enough, becomes accepted as truth. The mainstream media is reporting that home sales are strong and demand is robust. Compared to the depths of the housing bubble crash, sales are up somewhat, mostly due to investor demand, but sales are still very low by historic standards, and we’re nowhere near a healthy real estate market. If not for the dearth of inventory, the anemic demand wouldn’t be pushing prices up at all. Below is a chart from a recent Wall Street Journal article purporting to show sales are doing well. It does tell part of [Read More...]

Mar 122013
 
Must-sell shadow inventory has morphed into can't-sell cloud inventory

According to Zillow about 30% of mortgage borrowers are underwater. If you factor in sales commissions and transaction costs, the number is closer to 50%. When you reflect on it, what does an underwater borrower really own? They don’t have any equity, and since their underwater, even if prices go up, they still won’t have any equity. Perhaps they have the hope of equity, but the only tangible thing they own is their loan — that’s why I often refer to them as loanowners. It’s probably more accurate to call them money-renters because without an equity stake, they are merely [Read More...]

Feb 122013
 
REO-to-rental is superior to principal forgiveness

REO-to-rental hedge funds are latest bogeymen touted by the political left. The evil Wall Street money grubbers are profiting from the disaster created by the Banksters. It’s a narrative Matt Taibi popularized, and now others are jumping on the bandwagon. The latest diatribe from the left attempts to link their pet cause principal forgiveness to the activities of REO-to-rental hedge funds. As many political screeds are, this one is loaded with emotional pandering and is weak on good reasoning. The housing “recovery” is a myth Wall Street is running a new profit game by buying foreclosed homes and renting them [Read More...]

Nov 282012
 
Neighbors stealing from neighbors: HELOCs make a comeback

When people are victims of theft, they usually work to remedy the situation so the theft doesn’t happen again. If a thief breaks into someone’s house, the homeowner installs better locks or alarm systems to avoid a future loss of property or worse. However, when the crime is more complex than breaking-and-entering, or when the government is the facilitator of the crime, it can be much more difficult for the victims to protect themselves, but it’s just as necessary. The Big Steal I have written that Moral hazard is the central issue in the housing bust. My reasoning is simple. [Read More...]

Nov 212012
 
Reasons people buy homes and reasons people rent, including the bad ones

The need for shelter is basic, often closely followed by the desire for community. In the United States, this often translates into a desire to take on a very large mortgage to buy real estate. These basic human emotions drive much of the activity in real estate markets. Most people buy because it is the right time for them. Their career, age, family circumstances all come together to push people toward ownership at different times. Some are fortunate and buy at the bottom of the real estate cycle. Some are not so fortunate and buy at the peak. The most [Read More...]

Oct 252012
 
September delinquencies skyrocket 7.72%, foreclosure filings decline 20.4%, shadow inventory grows

The golden age of delinquent mortgage squatting continues. Those who aren’t paying their mortgage today can expect their free ride to continue indefinitely. We know from the report released by ForeclosureRadar.com that MLS inventory is NOT coming as foreclosure filings dry up. In California, the number of NODs declined 20.4% last month signaling that lenders are in no hurry to process their bad loans and push out the squatters. This slow processing creates a strong incentive for borrowers to strategically default because if they quit paying, they get to live for free, probably for a very long time. Rising prices will [Read More...]

Oct 082012
 
Despite rising prices, Orange County still more than 20% undervalued

Each month I publish the OCHN Market Newsletter. It provides the most detailed and accurate view of the housing market available without the realtor spin. I believe potential homebuyers should have the best information possible to make reasonable and rational decisions regarding the purchase of a home. Despite how bearish I have been, my strictly mechanical reports have been issuing strong buy signals since last fall. Now that house prices have turned positive, rents are still going up, interest rates are trending down, affordability is at record highs, and houses are undervalued by historic norms, the report is very bullish. [Read More...]

Oct 052012
 
Why the housing crash is far from over

I am no longer bearish. I have been an outspoken housing bear for over five years now, but based on recent developments, I have far fewer worries about another catastrophic decline in house prices. The recent changes are as follows: Federal reserve’s open-ended commitment to unlimited stimulus for as long as it takes no matter the consequences. Lending cartel’s improved control of inventory liquidation. Removal of most barriers for refinancing underwater loans to aid kicking the can to spread out liquidations. These new developments when combined with some older existing policies has finally created the conditions for a manufactured bottom [Read More...]

Aug 222012
 
The housing market's staircase recovery

With the acute shortage of resale inventory across the Southwest, it’s hard to imagine prices going down, and in the short term, they won’t. Of course, circumstances could change quickly as they did this spring, so anything is possible. However, if the federal reserve can keep interest rates at record lows, and if the lending cartel can process the backlog of distressed loans without causing resale inventories to spike, then prices will not go down in the future. But is it realistic to think both of these circumstances will come to pass? Mortgage interest rates hit all-time lows because the [Read More...]

Aug 082012
 
New study contends renting is superior investment to owning for most Americans

Despite being an outspoken renter over the last five years (I’ve actually been a renter since 2001), I still believe there are virtues to home ownership. The emotional benefits are palpable, and there are financial reasons to own. The main financial reason I plan to own again soon is to lock in a cost of ownership lower than the cost of a comparable rental. A secondary reason is to obtain the “forced savings” benefit of a conventionally amortized mortgage. I know a lender would give me a HELOC if I asked, but I have no intention of it. At some [Read More...]

Jul 122012
 
Investors buying REO cripple the move-up market

Prices crashed in 2007 and 2008 down to levels of relative affordability due to shrinking loan balances from the withdrawal of toxic loan products. Each of the loan owners who used unstable loans lost their houses and their creditworthiness. As a result, millions of foreclosures hit the market and there were not enough buyers to support prices at historic levels of affordability, so many markets crashed well below fundamental values. The group who ordinarily take equity from a previous sale to support a move-up market is absent because they have neither the credit nor the equity to complete the sale. [Read More...]

Jun 122012
 
Profiles of the ordinary thieves of the housing bubble

People are basically honest and will do the right thing if given the chance. However, people are also opportunistic, and if encouraged and enabled to steal, many ordinarily good people will go down the wrong path. Lenders led many astray. During the housing bubble, lenders were desperate to loan money in what they thought were low-risk, high yielding investments. The advertising to entice homeowners to become loanowners was both effective and too-good-to-be-true. The housing bubble turned many good people into thieves. Most were petty thieves who merely gamed the system to get free money. This same group now feels completely [Read More...]

May 172012
 
Should you buy a home, or should you wait?

People read this blog for a variety of reasons. Some like the in-depth coverage of housing issues unfettered by bias and bullshit. Some like the entertaining cartoons and HELOC abuse stories of woe. Some like the market information and cogent analysis of current trends in the OC market. This last group usually has one question in mind: is it a good time to buy a house? The answer to that question is an unequivocal maybe. There is no perfect time to buy a house. For those who want to buy at the absolute bottom of the market, unfortunately, there is [Read More...]

Apr 252012
 
What happened to the REOs that were due this spring?

Last fall B of A and other major banks increased their filings of Notices of Default. Since then I have been predicting a spring surge of REO that would snuff out the spring rally. Right on schedule in January, Notices of Trustee Sale and the number of REO acquired increased, and it looked like the REO would hit the market in time for the spring selling season. Then lenders changed their collective minds. In February, lenders abruptly curtailed their acquisition of REOs at the auctions, and in March they took back fewer than in February. CA – Foreclosure Outcomes This [Read More...]

Apr 072012
 
Current trends in the OC housing market: 4-7-2012

The OC Housing News profiles properties for sale each day and presents current market data on each city in Orange County. If you really want to know what’s happening in the OC Housing market, you need to read the OC Housing news and subscribe to the our monthly newsletter. Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. 15 VIA HACIENDA Rancho Santa Margarita, CA 92688 — $520,500 [Read More...]