FULLERTON

May 072013
 
The federal reserve is inflating a bubble in the apartment market

Financial bubbles are inflated by investors who pile into an asset class with flawed assumptions. In most cases, these investors have unrealistic expectations for future appreciation and wouldn’t want to own the asset based on its cashflow alone. Such is the case with stocks, bonds, land, houses, tulips, and even gold. At some point, investors question their original assumptions on appreciation and start to sell. Of course, this causes any appreciation to stop, and even more speculators decide to exit. Further selling causes prices to fall which prompts even more selling that culminates in complete market capitulation and a crash [Read More...]

Apr 012013
 
Housing bubble 2.0: Is it different this time?

Because prices are rising so rapidly, particularly in California where kool aid intoxication is a cultural addiction, many people are wondering if we are inflating another housing bubble. My answer to that question may surprise you. No, we are not inflating a new housing bubble. It’s different this time. It’s never different, is it? Well, the last housing bubble inflated prices well above the stable equilibrium of cost of ownership relative to rents based on a foundation of toxic mortgage products, most notably the Option ARM. The current rapid rise in prices is caused by different circumstances, and it’s being [Read More...]

Mar 082013
 
DeMarco prepares for final shutdown of GSEs

Of all the people who’ve played a role in the housing bubble and its aftermath, the one who continually impresses me is Edward DeMarco, conservator for the GSEs. He is a career bureaocrat who was placed in charge of the GSEs when they were taken into conservatorship in 2008. He has steadfastly protected the interests of taxpayers much to the chagrin of politicians on both the left and the right. The left hates him because he refuses to give loanowners free money through principal reductions. The politicians on the right who’ve sold their souls to banking interests don’t like him because [Read More...]

Sep 172012
 
FHA may waive 3-year waiting period and prompt millions of strategic defaults

Demand for houses by owner occupants has been anemic for nearly three years after four years of steep and unprecedented declines. Despite the refrain of increased demand from the bottom-calling glee club, the data clearly shows any increase in sales volume and demand this year is entirely due to cash investors, largely hedge funds buying low-end properties in beaten down markets. The decline in purchase applications is caused by two factors: potential buyers do not have the down payment, and potential borrowers cannot qualify for the loan. During the housing bubble, debt was cheap and plentiful, so many Americans stopped [Read More...]

Aug 292012
 
Liquidating shadow inventory requires managing absorption rates

The arguments about whether there is or is not a shadow inventory have gotten silly. There is a shadow inventory, and there are certain facts we can establish about it. First, there are millions of delinquent mortgage squatters who will not be given free homes. The exact number is impossible to ascertain because no accurate records are kept outside the banks who aren’t accurately sharing this information. Since the banks aren’t disseminating accurate information (why would they?), CoreLogic, who relies on voluntary information, consistently under reports the problem. Second, the disposition of these properties will require a sale on the [Read More...]

Jul 182012
 
Bank of America has one million customers who missed at least two payments

CA – Foreclosure Outcomes Banks are slowing foreclosure rates yet again, and it isn’t because they are out of borrowers to foreclose on. With the settlement earlier this year, banks began to clear out their existing REO inventory, and they slowed foreclosures in the Southwest in order to modify mortgages to meet their requirements under the settlement (note the uptick in cancellations last month). Ideally, the banks would like to modify loans to keep borrowers in place and complete short sales for those who want to leave. They don’t want to resolve there legacy toxic loans by foreclosure. Unfortunately, borrowers [Read More...]

May 312012
 
Banks cannot force a short sale

Banks cannot force a short sale. So what, you say? Well, this simple fact has eluded the banks and the pundits who believe banks can simply shift their liquidation efforts from REOs to short sales. The major banks in the settlement deal want to complete more short sales to reach their write-off quotas. Short sales count toward their settlement amount, and foreclosures do not. This explains much of the recent dramatic shift away from foreclosures. However, foreclosures are within the control of banks; they can force foreclosures. Short sales are not within the banks control. Sure, they can approve more [Read More...]

Apr 302012
 
8.7 years to clear Orange County distressed inventory at stable liquidation rate

Lenders are withholding inventory across the Southwestern United States in hopes of creating a shortage of supply to reverse the downward spiral in home prices. Lenders constantly try to balance two competing forces. First, lenders need to get their money back. Dead money tied up in non-performing assets does not contribute positively to their bottom line. Further, this money also cannot be used to fund ongoing operations. This puts enormous pressure on lenders to liquidate and put their capital toward a productive use. On the other hand, if they liquidate too quickly, house prices go down which reduces the amount [Read More...]

Mar 262012
 
Fullerton is 20% under historic payment affordability

Fullerton Overview Median home price is $369,000. Based on a rental parity value of $525,000, this market is under valued. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 3 month(s). Momentum suggests unchanging affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased to $237/SF to $240/SF. Resale prices have been weak for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests weak prices over the next three months. Median rental rates increased $0 last month from $$2,216 to $$2,216. Rents have been slowly rising for 3 month(s). Price momentum suggests unchanging rents over the next three months. Market rating = 4 Proprietary OC Housing [Read More...]

Mar 242012
 
Current trends in the OC housing market: 3-24-2012

The OC Housing News profiles properties for sale each day and presents current market data on each city in Orange County. If you really want to know what’s happening in the OC Housing market, you need to read the OC Housing news and subscribe to the our monthly newsletter. Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. 1015 North MONTECITO Pl Orange, CA 92869 — $599,000 $529,000 [Read More...]

Mar 202012
 
Excessive student loan debt is another long-term drag on housing

When subprime borrowers defaulted and lenders foreclosed, the bottom fell out of the housing market. As the distress from toxic mortgage debt worked its way up the housing ladder, each subsequent rung collapsed. Only the upper tiers remain inflated, although probably not for much longer. With the collapse of the bottom of the market, the equity vanished that is necessary to sustain the upper levels of the housing market. In order for the housing market to find a stable bottom, first-time homebuyers must come forward to absorb the distressed inventory. Unfortunately, the typical pool of first-time buyers composed of recent [Read More...]

Mar 172012
 
Current trends in the OC housing market: 3-17-2012

The OC Housing News profiles properties for sale each day and presents current market data on each city in Orange County. If you really want to know what’s happening in the OC Housing market, you need to read the OC Housing news and subscribe to the our monthly newsletter. Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. 1490 BENCHLEY St Fullerton, CA 92883 — $919,000 $875,377 1879 [Read More...]

Mar 102012
 
Current trends in the OC housing market: 3-10-2012

The OC Housing News profiles properties for sale each day and presents current market data on each city in Orange County. If you really want to know what’s happening in the OC Housing market, you need to read the OC Housing news and subscribe to the our monthly newsletter. Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. 10406 MCDANIEL Dr Garden Grove, CA 92840 — $445,000 $425,000 [Read More...]

Mar 012012
 
Moral hazard is central issue in housing bust

Many issues compete for our attention in the wake of the housing bust. In the sidebar of the blog is a list of topics of interest I write about frequently. However, the importance of these issues is not equal. Underlying most of them is the central problem of the housing bust: moral hazard. Every decision we make in life has consequences. If we save regularly and invest wisely, the consequences are wealth and peace of mind. If we spend foolishly and speculate wildly, the consequences are periods of feast and famine, delusions of grandeur, enormous entitlements, and when times are [Read More...]

Feb 182012
 
Hottest Listings in Orange County 2-18-2012

Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. 9291 PARLIAMENT Ave Westminster, CA 92683 — $389,900 Competing Listings $419,500 15932 COMMONWEALTH Pl 0.11 miles 3 bd / 1.75 ba 1,291 Sq. Ft. $457,000 9281 JASMINE Ave 0.31 miles 4 bd / 1 ba 1,390 Sq. Ft. $385,000 16351 JODY Cir 0.92 miles 4 bd / 2 ba 1,327 Sq. Ft. $419,900 10131 BEVERLY Ln 0.97 miles 4 [Read More...]

Jan 272012
 
Obama's housing policy has lead to unprecedented affordability

Despite pockets of high pricing, under the presidency of Barack Obama, house ownership affordability on a monthly payment basis has hit an all-time low relative to rents and incomes. This should be cause for celebration. People no longer have to apply an onerous portion of their monthly budget to house payments and related expenses. If this condition persists, the economy will recover quickly from the stimulus of newly freed disposable income. However, rather than celebrating this tremendous achievement, people decry the failure of Obama’s policies. This is wrongheaded. High real estate prices are not desirable or beneficial to society. It [Read More...]