FOUNTAIN VALLEY

Mar 212013
 
New home starts surpass lowest pre-bubble low of last 45 years

Bullishness is everywhere in real estate these days. People who follow the new construction market are touting the year-over-year increases with great exuberance. Homebuilding is certainly coming back, and as someone who spent most of my career working in the industry, I think that’s a good thing. However, the bullishness could use a little perspective. New home starts just surpassed the lowest low of the forty years prior to the collapse of the housing bubble. Further, the current pace of construction is still well below the stable average of the last five decades. It’s hardly a building boom. Also, the [Read More...]

Dec 252012
 
The California Social Contract (redux)

Satire is often more revealing than detailed explanations. The pathology of a collection of beliefs becomes apparent when the natural end result of a group of people acting on those beliefs is an absurd contradiction and an obviously unsustainable state. The following is a satirical essay written from the point of view of a desperate homeowner trying to sustain the Ponzi Scheme of the Great Housing Bubble: The California Social Contract You fence-sitters are failing to fulfill your part of the California Social Contract. Your failure to continue buying homes is disrupting the social order, and it is causing those of [Read More...]

Sep 192012
 
What happened to the MLS inventory?

Since the housing bust began, the banks have largely controlled the inventory of homes on the MLS. At first, they flooded the MLS with subprime foreclosures, but with mark-to-fantasy accounting, they were able to slow their foreclosure rates and store delinquent borrowers in shadow inventory. Since early 2009, the number of properties available for sales has been completely controlled by the banks. They determine when to list their standing inventory of REO, and they control the approval on every short sale. Between those two sources, the banks control the market. Banks decided early this year to slow the rate they [Read More...]

Jun 292012
 
Are rising house prices and low-cost Ponzi debt necessary for an economic recovery?

Everyone is focused on making house prices go up. Banks need higher house prices to recover the capital they put into trillions of dollars of toxic mortgages. Loan owners need house prices to go up to avoid damaged credit from a short sale or foreclosure. Home owners want to see house prices go up to feel rich. And politicians need to see rising house prices to keep everyone happy and get reelected. Economists also play the game by promoting the “wealth effect” of housing. By cloaking what’s really going on with a comfortable euphemism, it becomes easy to ignore the [Read More...]

Apr 092012
 
Principal reduction transfers the pain from lenders and loan owners to everyone else

I have two strongly held views on foreclosure and principal reduction that are completely at odds with the drivel in the mainstream media. First, foreclosures are not a problem. In fact, foreclosures are essential to the economic recovery. All efforts to avoid or delay foreclosures are counterproductive. Second, principal forgiveness is the worst policy option. The clamor from the left to give away my tax dollars to loan owners is getting louder and louder. It’s simply bad public policy, and it should not be embraced by policymakers. Sharing the Pain and Gain in the Housing Market … The big question [Read More...]

Mar 282012
 
Sales down, prices down, shadow inventory abundant, and Shiller says prices may never recover

The frenzy over the possibility of a bottom in the housing market needs to be tempered by the reality of the current market situation. Despite relative affordability, sales volumes are low and declining, resale prices are still falling, we have a huge overhang of supply in shadow inventory, and as economist Robert Shiller points out, we may be on the Japanese path of decade-long deflation in housing. Any one of these conditions would warrant market pessimism. All at the same time calls into question the viability of any market bottom. OCHN Presentations, Wednesday, March 28, 2012, 6:30 and 8:00 I [Read More...]

Feb 242012
 
With prices at 10-year lows and falling, renting is back in style

When the housing market nears the bottom, despair dominates. Prices have fallen for five straight years and hover at 10-year lows, and real estate is out of favor as an investment class. Evidence of the market’s despair crops up in articles extolling the virtues of renting. Articles about renting were common from 1994 to 1996, and at the time, renting was a good idea; prices had been falling, and there was little reason to believe they would be going up soon, just like today. However, in the big picture, people who bought in 1994 to 1996 were rewarded. They suffered [Read More...]

Feb 182012
 
Hottest Listings in Orange County 2-18-2012

Redfin is the most popular real estate search site in Southern California. They track the most popular listings based on the number of views each receives. Below are some of the most viewed property listings in Orange County. Check them out. 9291 PARLIAMENT Ave Westminster, CA 92683 — $389,900 Competing Listings $419,500 15932 COMMONWEALTH Pl 0.11 miles 3 bd / 1.75 ba 1,291 Sq. Ft. $457,000 9281 JASMINE Ave 0.31 miles 4 bd / 1 ba 1,390 Sq. Ft. $385,000 16351 JODY Cir 0.92 miles 4 bd / 2 ba 1,327 Sq. Ft. $419,900 10131 BEVERLY Ln 0.97 miles 4 [Read More...]

Jan 232012
 
Principal reductions fail to reduce future default rates

Principal forgiveness is the worst policy option. Despite this fact, it’s so appealing to loan owners and politicians, reporters are keen to write about the prospect. However, the world is not comprised only of loan owners. Nearly 40% of households are renters, and of the remaining 60% who own homes, 90% of them are still paying their mortgages. Ninety-four percent of the population is asked to fix the problems of the 6% who are loan owners and the banksters who created the problem. Lenders and loan owners have problems. Lenders made loans their borrowers can’t repay, and now both parties [Read More...]

Jan 092012
 
REO inventory at the GSEs and FHA growing out of control

Three recent news stories strongly suggest the GSEs have too many REOs, and they are working feverishly to prevent their REO inventory from growing out of control. First, the federal reserve has identified markets to sell bulk REOs to companies willing to convert them to rentals and hold them until the market recovers to sell off their REO inventory in bulk. Second, the FHA has waived the anti-flipping rule again to help them clear out their REO inventory. Third, Freddie Mac has extended the forbearance for jobless borrowers so they don’t have to add to their REO inventory. These stories [Read More...]