Feb212017
California housing enjoys strong fundamentals but faces potential headwinds
Housing fundamentals are strong, but if they get too strong, rising mortgage rates will spoil the fun.
Signs of a strong economy are all around us. U.S. retail sales rise, and inflation posts largest gain in four years. Unemployment is near historic lows, and Trump plans to dump fuel on the fire with a massive infrastructure spending program.
The US Housing market is poised for a strong start in 2017. The underlying economy was strong enough for the federal reserve to raise interest rates again in December. Unemployment is low and wage growth is picking up, so more qualified borrowers are likely to become buyers in the days ahead. Further, with mortgage interest rates still very low by historic standards, the demand for housing as expressed in dollars borrowers can put toward a purchase is near record highs.
The conditions as described above will likely lead to robust sales and strong price increases this spring — assuming rising mortgage rates don’t ruin the party.
California home sales start 2017 on a strong note
Median sales price drops below $500,000 for first time since March 2016
February 20, 2017, Ben Lane
While winter time usually means a decline in home sales, California just saw its first increase in home sales between December and January since 2012, a sign that the Golden State could be in for a strong housing year.
… closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 420,100 units in January.
That’s up 2.1% from the 411,430 level in December 2016, and up 4.4% when compared with home sales in January 2016 of a revised 402,220. …
If mortgage rates remain below 4.5%, both sales and house prices will rise strongly this year. The economy is improving, and with an improving economy will come increased demand. If this demand is amplified by super-low rates, housing will do very well. Our first data point of the year bears this out.
CAR President Geoff McIntosh suggests that the high prices in markets like San Francisco is driving buyers to seek lower priced options in nearby cities.
“California’s housing market continues to be defined by the higher-priced, coastal markets and the less expensive, inland areas that still offer access to major employment centers,” McIntosh said.
“For example, eroding affordability and tight housing inventory are pushing buyers away from the core Bay Area markets of San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara and into less expensive bedroom communities, such as Contra Costa, Napa, and Solano,” McIntosh continued. “In Southern California, an influx of buyers from coastal employment areas into the Inland Empire drove healthy year-over-year sales in Riverside and San Bernardino.”
I am very bullish on the Inland Empire this year. Pressure from high prices in Orange and LA Counties will push potential homebuyers to the Inland Empire, and with the FHA loan limit rising 6.4% this year, borrowers will be able to raise their bids. Combine those technical facts with a strong economy, and you have the recipe for strong sales and continued price increases.
While the current market conditions look promising for California, CAR’s senior vice president and chief economist, Leslie Appleton-Young, notes that rising interest rates could hamper the state’s housing economy.
“January’s sales increase was likely boosted by rising interest rates, which have risen sharply since the election and have given buyers an incentive to get off the sidelines and close escrow before rates go higher,” Appleton-Young said. “Yet, future anticipated rate hikes will increase the cost of homebuying and could have an adverse effect on affordability and future home sales.”
The improved economy will bring out the interest rate hawks at the federal reserve. Personally, I believe the federal reserve will allow the economy to run hot, but for the first time in a decade, we may actually see two (or more) rate increases in the same year. Higher interest rates, but more importantly higher mortgage rates will take away the punch bowl before the party gets started.
The economy is better than investors currently believe
If the economy shows continued resiliency, investors will retreat from their safe-haven buying and move into riskier asset classes. The exodus from 10-year treasuries and mortgage-backed securities will push mortgage rates up, acting as a headwind to housing.
Many analysts would like to believe strong job and wage growth will overcome the increasing costs of mortgage debt. It won’t. The math simply doesn’t favor it. Each percentage point mortgage interest rates go up, wages must rise 12% to compensate. Strong wage growth would be 4%, not 12%. It would take three years of very strong wage growth just to compensate for 1% higher mortgage rates. The federal reserve liked the math when they needed lower rates to reflate the housing bubble, but the math makes raising mortgage rates very problematic.
The positive forces working on the market now will buoy the market for at least part of this year. As I stated above, these conditions are unique and subject to change with the winds of the broader economy and the financial markets. Don’t be surprised if a sudden rise in mortgage rates spoils the party.
The political left has completely lost its collective mind.
How Can We Get Rid of Trump?
We’re just a month into the Trump presidency, and already so many are wondering: How can we end it?
One poll from Public Policy Polling found that as many Americans — 46 percent — favor impeachment of President Trump as oppose it. Ladbrokes, the betting website, offers even odds that Trump will resign or leave office through impeachment before his term ends.
Sky Bet, another site, is taking wagers on whether Trump will be out of office by July.
There have been more than 1,000 references to “Watergate” in the news media in the last week, according to the Nexis archival site, with even some conservatives calling for Trump’s resignation or warning that he could be pushed out. Dan Rather, the former CBS News anchor who covered Watergate, says that Trump’s Russia scandal isn’t now at the level of Watergate but could become at least as big.
Maybe things will settle down. But what is striking about Trump is not just the dysfunction of his administration but also the — vigorously denied — allegations that Trump’s team may have cooperated with Vladimir Putin to steal the election. What’s also different is the broad concern that Trump is both: A) unfit for office, and B) dangerously unstable. One pro-American leader in a foreign country called me up the other day and skipped the preliminaries, starting with: “What the [expletive] is wrong with your country?”
I’m not sure it’s fair to put all of this on the left. Trump is a polarizing person, when you add that to the information echo chambers that people reside in you are going to get extreme responses in support or opposed. It would really help if he ever took a measured, rational approach to problems, but that’s just not his way.
You have a point. He is polarizing, and right now, neither side seems like they want to make peace with the other.
Prior to this election cycle, the mainstream media really tried to be impartial. Fox News became the voice of the Republican cadre, but there was no unified voice representing the left. Now, the mainstream media is unified by its hatred of Trump, and they’ve abandoned any pretense of impartiality. The mainstream media is now the Fox News of the political left. Fox news erroneously claimed this for years, but now it’s true.
U.S. retail sales rise; inflation posts largest gain in four years
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in January and consumer prices recorded their biggest gain in nearly four years, boosting prospects of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve next month.
The economy’s strengthening outlook was also bolstered by other data on Wednesday showing manufacturing and mining production rising last month as the drag from lower oil prices fades. The reports came as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen appeared to put a March interest rate hike on the table.
“All things consumer show the economy is starting the year off with a bang,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York. “Interest rates are too low and with an economy this strong rates need to be put on a preset course higher.”
The Commerce Department said retail sales increased 0.4 percent last month, buoyed by purchases of electronics and appliances. Households also spent more on dining out, sporting goods and hobbies.
December’s sales were revised up to show a 1.0 percent rise instead of the previously reported 0.6 percent advance. Sales rose despite motor vehicle purchases posting their biggest drop in 10 months.
Compared to January last year retail sales were up 5.6 percent. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.4 percent after a similar gain in December.
These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales ticking up 0.1 percent and core sales gaining 0.3 percent last month.
US Unemployment Claims Still Low And Lower Than Expected
The weekly unemployment claims numbers are out and they’re showing that Donald Trump sure turned up to take office at the right time. We’re in the middle of streak of low layoffs that we’ve not seen for many a decade, thus the labour market’s strong and much seems, if not quite everything as yet, right with the economy. We should note that things aren’t perfect but almost all of the problems that remain are not to do with the cyclical state of the economy, they’re more structural:
Claims for unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 239,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The increase came after claims had dropped to 234,000 the previous week, the second lowest reading in the past year. The less-volatile four-week average edged up a slight 500 applications to 245,250. That marks 102 consecutive weeks in which claims applications have been below the key threshold of 300,000, the longest stretch since 1970.
And something that we’ve noted here before. Back then, in those 70’s of tank tops and bell bottoms, the labour force was about half the size it is now. So the rate of unemployment claims, as opposed to the number, is about half what it was back in those halcyon days:
Fewer Americans than forecast filed last week applications for unemployment benefits, underscoring a vibrant labor market.
Jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 239,000 in the week ended Feb. 11, a report from the Labor Department showed Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 245,000 applications. Continuing claims fell slightly.
Not just a low number but also lower than surveyed economists expected.
The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in mid-February rose by 5,000 to 239,000, but they remained at exceedingly low levels that reflect the resilience of a nearly eight-year-old economic recovery.
U.S. infrastructure legislation back on Congress’ radar
President Donald Trump’s pledge to bring massive investments in U.S. infrastructure projects showed new signs of life on Friday after lying dormant for weeks, as leading Republican lawmakers said proposals from the administration could be in the offing.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, told reporters he expects to receive “some kind of recommendation on an infrastructure bill, a subject that we frequently handle on a bipartisan basis,” but gave no details or timing.
He has previously voiced concern over adding to budget deficits with a new injection of federal funds for road, bridge and other construction projects like the ones President Barack Obama secured from Congress in 2009, especially after a major highway funding law was enacted about a year ago.
Some Republicans and Democrats in Congress are increasingly criticizing Trump’s administration for being slow to get behind his legislative initiatives during the first month of his presidency.
Trump’s plans to create an infrastructure council led by two New York billionaire friends, developers Richard LeFrak and Steven Roth, have yet to be launched, a spokesman for LeFrak said.
During his presidential campaign, Trump said he would push for a $1 trillion infrastructure program to rebuild roads, bridges, airports and other public works projects. He said he wanted action during the first 100 days of his administration, which now seems unlikely.
The Republican president has talked about creating a tax credit to encourage private sector investment in many of these projects. But Democrats say that would fail to spur enough rebuilding and put taxpayers on the hook for a tax credit to wealthy developers, who they said would build toll roads that taxpayers would then have to pay to use.
Democrats want a more direct federal role in sparking a construction boom.
Warren Buffett selling home in Laguna Beach’s Emerald Bay for $11 Million
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet has put his six-bedroom house in Laguna Beach’s Emerald Bay on the market for $11 million.
“For the first time in nearly 50 years the legendary ‘Oracle of Omaha’s’ home (at) 27 Emerald Bay is now available!” says the listing by Bill Dolby of Villa Real Estate.
Buffett, 86, has owned the ocean-view home since 1971, when he paid $150,000 for it. He’s used the house for family vacations for the past 46 years, Dolby said.
Why didn’t Warren list with Berkshire-Hathaway real estate? I thought they were the best.
“California housing enjoys strong fundamentals”
Strong fundamentals indeed; ie.,
*emotions dictating actions instead of reason
*ownership being replaced with indebtedship
*continued devaluation of the people’s labor
*stealing ~$500billion per yr in interest income from savers and seniors living on fixed income x 8yrs.
Yeah, I just got my raise for this year, 1.5%
According to my boss, this was the typical increase across the company. Fortune 50 insurance company.
Yeah, the math doesn’t make sense.