Mike

May 182013
 
Defaulting on your home now includes automatic enrollment into a loan modification program

The desire to push defaulting homes into shadow inventory and keep them off the market is manifesting itself into new programs. Let’s briefly review, remember when banks didn’t want borrowers to default and when the borrower defaulted, banks had very strict guidelines to get out default and back into the good graces of the bank? Banks didn’t even want to publicize the fact they were having defaults or foreclosures to give appearance of financially soundness of their institution. Now banks in conjunction with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are giving defaulted loanowners virtually an automatic enrollment into a new loan [Read More...]

May 112013
 
New mortgage rules are coming!

The long awaited and new Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage rules are coming out. In fact the Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) is due out very soon. Before this recent home price spike this would have been huge news. It’s still big news but many of these homes being purchased in the last several months are not using Fannie or Freddie mortgages. And many of these homes are being purchased with down payments of greater than 30% or even all cash. When this cycle cools and supply and demand are once again allowed to work these mortgages will have a [Read More...]

May 052013
 
Home Speculation is not just for investors

The suppression of the housing inventory has resulted in some interesting home construction. The lenders have suppressed many homes from entering the market place. They have become shadow inventory and currently there are about 5 million of them. Most media organizations have even lost interest in reporting these numbers. The lack of existing home inventory has generated a lot of demand even with a small pool of buyers. Home builders have wasted no time to fill this void and started building more new homes. Within this activity there is a much smaller subset of builders that are building homes without [Read More...]

Apr 272013
 
Average homebuyer didn't benefit from the low mortgage rates

Since the end of 2008 the Federal Reserve has had a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), which is the overnight rate interest rate changed to it’s member banks, it’s called the federal funds rate. This interest rates influences treasury yields, corporate bonds, and mortgage rates. The current rate is about .25% or less on a annual basis. In addition, they Federal Reserve also creates money in a program called Quantitative Easing. The Federal Reserve justifies these policies by claiming the recession is so extremely bad (and it is) that’s its necessary to set the rate to almost zero to simulate [Read More...]

Apr 202013
 
The Eminent Domain of mortgages proposal is rearing it's ugly head again

What was the tagline for Jaws 2? “Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the water”. Eminent Domain is the seizing of private property at market rates for public use for example roads, schools, and other infrastructure. Robert Shiller is to my surprise, a proponent of using eminent domain. How is purchasing a mortgage which is a security agreement between the lender and the borrower qualifies as a public use? Eminem domain just a backdoor way to force a principal balance write down on a mortgage by using local government’s police power. The principal reductions completely [Read More...]

Apr 132013
 
Is the 30-year fixed rate mortgage a risky product?

Is the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is just too risky of a product? Banks don’t like it because it creates asset-liability mismatch. It’s become a risky product for taxpayers because the mortgage underwriting process has become too easy and the risky loans are backed by the government, and the Ponzi type borrowers have taken advantage of the situation. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is government-sponsored product. In fact, it was the first affordability product, but it had underwriting requirements that reduce the risk to the lender and added stability to the banking system. The three simple underwriting requirements made this loan [Read More...]

Apr 062013
 
Loanowners are speculating their newly found equity in the stock market

This is a window inside the mindset of the 21st century ponzi loanowner. This is the worst recession in post war history, and home owners that lucky to now have equity in their properties are taking it and gambling in the stock market. Is paying down your mortgage such terrible financial act to commit? It shows that a home is not shelter to the Ponzi, but a financial speculation product to use to support their lifestyle. This will be new cohort of loanowners that will find themselves with negative equity if mortgage rates have a rapid increase. This will result [Read More...]

Mar 302013
 
Has rental increases peaked for this cycle? OCHN Newsletter graph

If you have been watching rental rates over the past 5 years you noticed a increasing trend. After some decreases in 2009 rents bounced back up by 2012 past pre-recession levels in some cases. As rental rates have increased mortgage rates have dipped to the lowest levels since World War II. These two trends have switched the cost of ownership making owning more affordable than renting as compared to the early 2000′s when owning was twice the cost. But in the last 12 months the pace of rental increases have slowed (see OCHN March graph below). Are rental rates now [Read More...]

Mar 232013
 
Home builder confidence and employment signals slow recovery

We just had a small spike in the number of new home starts, Larry Roberts just had a excellent post on the historical size of this increase. In addition, with banks very successfully stopping cloud inventory from going on the market, builders are wasting no time to build more housing units. This is not a thriving recovery, it’s recovery where patient that has been given CRP and now has a stable pulse. The mix is different in this construction cycle as multifamily units are being constructed in a larger portion. So many multifamily units have hit the market that it [Read More...]

Mar 162013
 
The question for the newly above water borrower: to sell or not to sell

The increase of home values have pushed some 1.4 million underwater borrowers into positive equity territory. The Federal Reserve have engineered ultra low mortgage rates and banks have suppressed the shadow inventory into “cloud inventory‘” Meaning many homeowners will receive loan modification after loan modification leading to a false sense of confidence, but in the long term most will end up losing their homes. However, for these newly above water borrowers threats still remain to push them underwater again. Whether its market risk, balloon payment shock, mortgage rate increases, tax law changes or even demographic changes in their neighborhood it’s [Read More...]

Mar 092013
 
If the housing market is doing so well, then why all the subsidies?

There are so many subsidies, handouts, and tax deductions that have a powerful affect in the housing economy and it’s quite surprising when you list them all. I wanted to create this list as the media is cheering the “Return of the Housing Market”. However, look at the factors, for example like low mortgages rates it’s a type of handout. The average American should be concern with these policies because it affects them everyday life they just don’t know or understand how. The bottom line is why should citizen A’s tax money be used to purchase citizen B’s house. This [Read More...]

Mar 022013
 
The State of California does not like your house

The State of California now has a policy albeit an unofficial one to curb suburb growth, which will impact homeowners’ choices and lifestyles. At one point it was what car you drove in SoCal as the key status symbol, but I think it’s turned into where you live and the upgrades to your house. Southern California a very suburban region and residents have voted with their dollars and feet to live in suburban communities with the longest commutes in the nation. But this lifestyle is not unique, in fact most US metropolitan areas are majority suburban except for New York. [Read More...]

Feb 232013
 
The Federal Reserve owns 10% of all residental mortgage debt, increasing 5% per year

The Federal Reserve (US central bank) influences interest rates and by extension mortgages rates. One of their key tools is the buy or selling of bonds, it adds or subtracts money from the money supply . Since 2008 and the Federal Reserve has purchased over $1 trillion dollars worth of US residential mortgages in the form of bonds. The effect of this unprecedented mortgage bond purchasing pushed mortgage rates down to the lowest levels since the 1940′s. This $1 trillion dollar figure represents 10% of the of the outstanding residential mortgages in the US.  To explain it in another way, [Read More...]

Feb 162013
 
The suspension of the housing move up market explained with examples

One of the results of the ultra low mortgage rates is that they can only go higher or stay the same for the very long time. In fact, I think the US will do everything they possibly can to keep mortgage rates down for sometime. However, the low cost of mortgage rates will be paid for the in the move up or trade up market in future year. As a side note, the examples below are also relevant to show asset inflation due these ultra low rates. My wife and I will probably start looking to purchase a semi-starter house [Read More...]

Feb 092013
 
Did the US make FHA into a new Countrywide at taxpayers expense?

I was very hesitant posting a press release from a political office as this FHA problem was caused by banksters and politicians. However, the press release had some very good descriptions on what happened to FHA in the past 6 years. In a nutshell, some of the functions of the subprime private mortgage insurance industry were taken over by the FHA. That’s explains the reference to Countrywide Mortgage by Chairman Hensarling. Last week I posted discussing the affect of low mortgage rates and the increase in purchasing power. Larry Roberts discussed the role of the US in subprime lending or [Read More...]

Feb 022013
 
Recent home price increases are due to increased purchasing power and not economic conditions

There are many reports showing increasing home prices of 5% or more; for 2012 Case Shiller, Core Logic, NAr, Data Quick, and many others. In addition, it seems like home builders are having a rally as their stock prices have increased. However, there is one overall factor that determines home values. The main driver of this increase are mortgage rates, the cost of renting money from lenders. The home values increases not due to economic activity, increased wages, easy credit, or some sort of miracle recovery. Since 2007 mortgage rates have dropped almost 40% at the end of 2012 where [Read More...]