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Author Archive: Irvine Renter

Recent reports show an uptick in mortgage equity withdrawal. Is this history repeating itself, or did people learn the wrong lessons from the housing bust? Money won’t buy happiness, but it can provide the finest forms of misery. Everyone wants money. If given the chance to do nothing and obtain money, most people would take it. Such was the lure of the housing bubble. People only had to do two things to obtain copious amounts of cash. First, they needed to buy a house. Then they needed to find a lender who would give them money for signing some paperwork. That’s it. No work, no skills, no risk, no sacrifice, nothing. Buy a house, sign some papers, and anyone could…[READ MORE]

Today's Best-Execution Rates: 30YR FIXED - 4.25% FHA/VA - 3.75-4.25% 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.5-3.625% 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender USA Housing News has National Coverage Complete data and analysis covering the entire United States and protected territories. Includes detailed data from large to small scale including national, state, MSA, county, city, area, and zip code level. The most complete coverage of any analytics provider.  [READ MORE]

The housing bust twisted people's point of view so much that deadbeats who gamed the system for personal gain were lionized for their behavior. Many people bought during the housing bubble because they wanted a home for their families. They stayed within reasonable debt-to-income guidelines and used fixed rate mortgages. Unfortunately, the prudent were small in number, and if the prudent borrowers lost jobs or suffered financially during the recession, most of them obtained loan modifications making their super-sized debts manageable. They survived. Many other people bought during the housing bubble because they saw their house as an investment, or worse a cash cow they could milk periodically to supplement their spending. These people saw rising house prices as a…[READ MORE]

What's happening down at the beach? Historically, properties in this market sell at a 33.2% premium. Today's premium is 26.2%. This market is 7.0% undervalued. Median home price is $1,668,500, and resale $/SF is $790/SF. Prices rose 4.0% year-over-year. Monthly cost of ownership is $7,660, and rents average $6,245, making owning $1,402 per month more costly than renting. Rents rose 6.0% year-over-year. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is 3.6%. Market rating = 9   [gview file="http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017-04-Newport-Beach.pdf" height="840px" width="640px" save="1"][READ MORE]

Debt-to-income ratios must be limited because beyond a certain point, rising debt service becomes a Ponzi scheme. In The Great Housing Bubble, I wrote about how we could prevent the next housing bubble: Loans for the purchase or refinance of residential real estate secured by a mortgage and recorded in the public record are limited by the following parameters based on the borrower’s documented income and general indebtedness and the appraised value of the property at the time of sale or refinance: All payments must be calculated based on a 30-year fixed-rate conventionally-amortizing mortgage regardless of the loan program used. Negative amortization is not permitted. The total debt-to-income ratio for the mortgage loan payment, taxes and insurance cannot exceed 28%…[READ MORE]

Double digit rental rate increases are driving rapid home price appreciation in San Francisco. Historically, properties in this market sell at a 24.1% premium. Today's premium is 11.4%. This market is 12.7% undervalued. Median home price is $828,000, and resale $/SF is $532/SF. Prices rose 7.0% year-over-year. Monthly cost of ownership is $3,815, and rents average $3,406, making owning $408 per month more costly than renting. Rents rose 8.2% year-over-year. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is 3.9%. Market rating = 8  [READ MORE]

Houses feel expensive because an unusually large percentage of the payment is going toward principal amortization. For the last few years, my monthly housing market reports rated most communities across Southern California highly, suggesting it’s a very good time to buy a house. Yet despite this dispassionate review of the math, most people who actually shop for a house feel like prices are way too high. Why is that? Well, house prices are high. The federal reserve in conjunction with government officials reflated the housing bubble to restore collateral backing to lender’s bad loans. The housing bubble that peaked in 2005/2006 witnessed house prices 20 years ahead of their time. Reflating the housing bubble in 2016 still puts us 10…[READ MORE]

Historically, properties in this market sell at a 22.3% premium. Today's premium is 11.3%. This market is 11.0% undervalued. Median home price is $778,900, and resale $/SF is $434/SF. Prices rose 5.0% year-over-year. Monthly cost of ownership is $3,589, and rents average $3,214, making owning $374 per month more costly than renting. Rents rose 4.3% year-over-year. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is 4.0%. Market rating = 9[READ MORE]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj4nJ1YEAp4 Several years ago, I was playing craps in Las Vegas when the shooter went on a long, long run. After about 40 minutes without rolling a seven, I had about $750 I took off the table in front of me, and I had about $500 still sitting on the table from the numerous times I pressed my bets or let it all ride. In the middle of the pandemonium at the table, I had a funny feeling. Despite the euphoria around me, I felt it was time to leave. Before I could think more about it, I found the words coming out of my mouth, "Please, take down all my bets." Some of the people at the table ridiculed…[READ MORE]

Lenders lower standards to qualify more borrowers and increase business, a precursor to another bubble, but only if risk is again mispriced. Let’s assume for a moment all qualification standards were eliminated and anyone who wanted to borrow money could get a loan, similar to what happened in 2004 through 2006. Would this cause a housing bubble? In my opinion, it would not. It would inflate prices, and it would cause a great deal of downward substitution of quality to get a property, but it wouldn’t necessarily create a housing bubble as long as loans were based on verifiable income and reasonable debt-to-income ratios on conventionally amortizing mortgages. The loose lending standards of 2004-2006 allowed many people to buy homes,…[READ MORE]

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In Memoriam: Tony Bliss 1966-2012
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