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Author Archive: Irvine Renter

The populist revolt brewing is stronger than most realize, and Donald Trump taps into this populist anger better than any other candidate. With Donald Trumps wins in the Super Tuesday primaries, it's looking increasingly like he will be the Republican nominee in 2016. Today I repost the material from December 29, 2015. Though this was only two months ago, the difference in the political mood and understanding is dramatically different today. When I wrote this post, nobody gave Donald Trump a chance. Right now, many Republicans have resigned themselves to a Trump nomination and his crushing defeat in November. They too will be surprised as over the next few months as it becomes apparent that he can really win. That's…[READ MORE]

All delinquent borrowers living in properties worth less than the outstanding balance of the loan will be offered a loan modification in lieu of a foreclosure because the banks can't absorb the losses. Prior to the housing bust, lenders always foreclosed on delinquent borrowers — always. They had no incentive to kick the can with a loan modification because they could reclaim their capital and loan it to a borrower who would pay the full rate. Lenders only kicked the can when house prices fell and they could not recover the full amount through a foreclosure. Can-kicking is a policy of necessity. If lenders had foreclosed on all the delinquent mortgage squatters and liquidated the inventory, house prices would have…[READ MORE]

For the missing MLS inventory to return to the market, borrowers need debt forgiveness, and house prices need to move even higher. The financial media inundates us with stories about the "problem" of low MLS inventory that supposedly holds back first-time homebuyers, who are buying in near record low numbers. Whether or not this is a real problem or a fiction of the financial media depends on your point of view. Bankers don't consider low MLS inventory a problem; after all, bankers engineered the MLS shortage in order to drive up house prices to restore collateral value to the bad loans they made during the housing bubble. Homeowners are happy to go along for the ride. Neither bankers nor homeowners…[READ MORE]

The US housing market starts 2016 with a strong economy, low unemployment, improving wage growth, and very low mortgage rates: A recipe for strong sales and price increases. The US Housing market is poised for a strong start in 2016. The underlying economy was strong enough for the federal reserve to start raising interest rates in December. Unemployment is low and wage growth is picking up, so more qualified borrowers are likely to become buyers in the days ahead. Further, with mortgage interest rates trending down toward record lows, the demand for housing as expressed in dollars borrowers can put toward a purchase is near record highs. The conditions as described above will likely lead to robust sales and strong…[READ MORE]

Today's homeowners are paying down mortgage faster than ever before as rapid loan amortization builds wealth across America. Which is better for accumulating equity, lower prices or lower interest rates? Both lower the monthly cost of ownership and result in more disposable income. Obviously, the banks prefer higher prices to recoup their capital from their bad bubble-era loans, so they are offering 4% interest rates to prevent prices from going any lower. I think most buyers would prefer lower prices, but since the banks make the rules which determine market prices, low interest rates and high prices are what we get. From a homebuyers perspective low rates or low prices depends on how they acquire the property. All-cash buyers would…[READ MORE]

Some foreclosure and eviction cases can be heartbreaking. However, we live by rule of law in this country, and unless we want to start giving away real estate to those with the saddest story, these evictions must take place. Property evictions cause severe emotional pain for the dispossessed. People develop strong emotional attachments to the place they call home, and losing that attachment suddenly is so painful that many well-meaning people believe evictions should be banned. People who support prohibiting evictions do not understand that evictions are essential to the operation of our housing system. Eviction is both a threat and a consequence. People are only evicted from their homes if they fail to make the required payments. Renters are…[READ MORE]

Paying off debt early is a far superior long-term financial plan than continually adding to mortgage debt to support an extravagant lifestyle. Most people believe they achieve the American Dream when they buy a house, but most often they only buy 3.5% to 20% of a house, not the whole thing. Although it feels like it's their house, it's not. If they quit paying the mortgage, the bank can take it from them, as millions found out during the housing bust. Real home ownership is only achieved when the debt is retired, and the shortest route to success is to pay off a mortgage early. Pay off mortgage debt early? Am I crazy? Why would anyone do that in an…[READ MORE]

Land installment contracts provide a viable path to homeownership, but they are fraught with abuse. In yesterday's post, Three calculations every real estate investor must know, I discussed my personal criteria for buying rental investment properties. Everyone who actively invests has their own criteria, but nearly everyone has some criteria they use to filter out properties with problems they don't want to deal with. Have you ever wondered what happens to those properties that fail to meet anyone's criteria? What is the fate of those properties that are so far gone that it doesn't pay to renovate them and bring them up to a salable standard? Many might think these homes are demolished, and in places like Detroit, this does…[READ MORE]

The three main measures of financial performance for rental real estate are capitalization rate, cash-on-cash return, and internal rate of return. When people buy a personal residence, they often solace themselves that the high prices is warranted because the property is a "good investment". Novices generally assume that anything they sell for more than they paid is a good investment without any understanding of what a good investment really is. It’s not enough to merely make a profit, the amount of profit relative to the amount of money spent matters. If someone brags that they made $100,000 on a resale home investment, it's much more impressive if their initial investment was $100,000 than it is if they invested $1,000,000. It's…[READ MORE]

Analysts working for homebuilders see a flat market with weak sales as the likely future for OC Homebuilders. At first low MLS inventory was a boon to homebuilders, but housing market manipulations give homebuilders false signals, so Orange County homebuilders oversupplied the market, and as it turned out, reflating the housing bubble hurts homebuilders, rather than helps them. It wasn’t until early 2013 that homebuilding bounced off its five-year long malaise at 60-year lows. Homebuilding is still 40% below the average of the last 60 years, and with high prices and weak job growth, some are wondering when the industry will ever recover. Homebuilder's demand comes from financially stable households with sufficient savings, good credit, and a desire to own…[READ MORE]

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