Banks don’t want to modify borrower’s loans. They would far rather be paid back the money they borrowed with interest at the terms originally negotiated in the promissory note. The only reason banks are even considering loan modifications is because the collateral backing behind the loan no longer covers the original capital amount. If it did, banks would foreclose, boot out the delinquent borrowers, and resell the house to someone who was ready, willing, and able to make payments under the negotiated terms. It should be obvious that banks don’t want to modify these loans. If this were something they [Read More...]

For people who purchased properties in California, a non-recourse state, and never refinanced, lenders cannot come after them seeking to recoup their losses on a foreclosure. For those who live in recourse states, or California loanowners who refinanced, the situation is quite different. Lenders still have the right to pursue these borrowers for the deficiency, unless they agreed to a short sale in California after July 15, 2011. Most borrowers walked away thinking the debt was extinguished. While it was detached from the property, borrowers are still legally liable for any shortfall on the lender’s books. Lenders haven’t done much [Read More...]
Housing inventory nearly always bottoms on January 1 and increases steadily until July or August. In early 2013, inventory bottomed at levels 50% to 90% below normal depending on the market. This shortage of inventory, engineered by lenders, forced buyers to compete over the remaining for-sale homes. This made nearly every sale a multiple offer situation, and as buyers became more frustrated, they also became more aggressive. Finally, in April and May of 2013, aggression gave way to complete stupidity as buyers bid 15% to 20% over recent comps with all-cash or heavy cash offers and waived their appraisal contingencies. [Read More...]
NON-MLS property after repair value approximately $470,000, asking $375,000. This home is located in the city of Orange, close to Anahiem near The City Drive and Chapman but it does not back or side to any major streets. The home was originally 1272 square foot, per the seller a 550 square foot permitted addition was added per the seller making it 1822 square feet, on a 9200 square foot lot. The home has no HOA and No Mello Roos. The seller is asking $375,000. We are in contact with a for sale by owner in Orange, he said he is [Read More...]
Rising house prices are supposed to be driven by robust growth of high paying jobs. This drives household formation, and the high wages allows buyers to borrow large sums to drive up prices. This demand creates a shortage in housing as households compete with one another for the available housing stock. This prompts homebuilders into action to provide more supply to meet the demand. Those are the conditions that drive sustained price increases. Obviously, that isn’t what’s happening today. Gains in Home Prices Driven by Unsustainable Forces Despite the Increase in Prices Over the Last Year, Weakness Persists in the [Read More...]
The current housing market price rally is largely being fueled by investors competing for restricted inventory. Both the banks that are restricting the inventory and the investors who are buying it are counting on selling these properties to owner-occupants who are willing to pay higher prices for a place to shelter their families. Conventional wisdom is that a resurgent economy and low mortgage rates will bring owner occupants back to the housing market with a willingness and ability to pay higher prices. But will it really work out that way? As proof that the current market rally is entirely fueled [Read More...]
Banks are in survival mode. They must reflate the housing bubble, or the losses on their non-performing single-family residential loans will wipe them out. In order to reflate the bubble, the banks must keep these properties off the MLS, a task they are currently succeeding at, and mortgage interest rates must remain low so buyers can bid up prices to peak levels so banks can liquidate without a loss. The chart above shows the $144.75 billion exposure they have just on their non-performing loans. Since these non-performing loans only represent 9% of the total number of underwater borrowers, the total [Read More...]

While the US and many other countries around the world inflated housing bubbles, Ireland tried to surpass them all. From 1996 to 2006, house prices in Ireland increased more than 300%! As in the United States, Ireland inflated it’s housing bubble with lender debt. When the toxic brew of mortgages poisoned borrowers, delinquencies mounted, and house prices crashed. An issue of solvency When the service on existing debt exceeds the borrowers capacity to make payments, the borrower is insolvent. The limit of insolvency is also known as the Ponzi limit. Once this threshold is crossed, only additional infusions of borrowed [Read More...]

Prices in many housing markets around the country are rising at unsustainable rates. The last time this happened was 2004-2006, and the pundits at the time said that appreciation would moderate and resume its “normal” 5%+ yearly rates in the future. Gary Watts even assured us that “Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006,” he says. “It’s impossible for prices to go down this year.” It’s difficult to imagine a statement that was more wrong. The bust from 2007-2009 was characterized by steeply falling prices. It was a relatively quick and severe crash by [Read More...]

The US taxpayer (you) paid for the mess the bank’s made. Back in late 2008, the Department of Treasury took the GSEs under conservatorship and injected about $150 billion into them to make them solvent. And although the FHA has not officially requested a bailout yet, it’s no secret a bailout is coming. The only mystery so far is when the bailout will come and how large the ultimate price will be. Politicians have consistently lied to us about housing bailouts. The first batch of lies surrounded the GSEs: “There is no guarantee. There’s no explicit guarantee. There’s no implicit [Read More...]

In any negotiation the options of the parties determines the strength of their bargaining position. Ordinarily, when a lender and a borrower execute a promissory note and a mortgage agreement, the lender has most of the power, which is why they determine the terms of the agreement. The only option a borrower has is to shop for slightly better terms from another lender. If the borrower fails to pay according to the terms of the promissory note, the lender has the option of calling a public auction on the property to regain the outstanding balance on the loan. Lenders wisely [Read More...]

Bubble thinking is rampant, and the primary reason for its persistence is that people want the free spending money houses provide. The huge financial reward each bubble participant received as they went to the housing ATM gave a spender’s high like no other. Absent another housing bubble, most bubble participants will never have access to that kind of free money again. The real estate lottery When you reflect on it, mortgage equity withdrawal is similar to state run lotteries that sell hope to the poor at a major cost. If you are a worker who doesn’t save money, you have no [Read More...]

realtors have many standard tools they use to manipulate buyers. Most of what they say is half-truth or outright bullshit designed to create a false urgency in buyers to facilitate sales commissions. One of the more common lines of faulty reasoning is that buyers should worry about being priced out when mortgage interest rates rise and they should buy before the situation gets any worse. With the collapse of the housing bubble, most people realized that rising interest rates will not price them out. In fact, rising interest rates is far more likely to hurt sellers and force them to [Read More...]

When borrowers stop paying their mortgages, banks don’t want to foreclose because with so many so far underwater, the bank’s losses would be enormous; in fact, it would put most banks out of business. That simple truth drives every aspect of banking and government policy. Loanowners want to save their homes, but bankers and politicians really don’t care about them. Bankers and politicians want to save the banks. No matter how crazy many of the policy initiatives coming from Washington and Wall Street may seem, if you remember the basic dilemma that banks face, even the silliest disguised bailout makes [Read More...]

Banks are enjoying the market’s recent strength as collateral value returns to back their bad loans. Homeowners who aren’t distressed don’t mind either, but it’s the banks that benefit the most from the current situation of restricted MLS supply. To further restrict supply and really get prices to shoot upward, banks stopped foreclosure processing on May 6, 2013. Ostensibly, they did this for procedural reasons related to new regulations, but this is simply a ruse to cover their real intent of forcing prices to shoot up even more rapidly to help them avoid more losses when they finally do liquidate [Read More...]
HELOC abuse is one display in many of the properties I profile each day. I made my point about HELOC abuse years ago, and I originally wrote today’s post back in early 2010. No matter how many of these I profile, many readers, including myself, find these stories interesting. It’s one thing to know HELOC abuse happened, but it’s much more entertaining and educational to see every manifestation of the disease. The thinking behind this behavior is flawed, es evidenced by the legions of people who lost their homes this way. Recognizing the mistakes of others can be very helpful [Read More...]
