
Forecasters begin their yearly extrapolation of existing trends and pass it off as a genuine forecast. A few weeks ago I announced that I began a new position as Market InSite's Chief Economist. When people hear about what I do, one of the first questions they ask is "what's going to happen in the real estate market?" I never answer this question directly. I usually tell them it depends on what happens with job growth, income growth, and mortgage interest rates. So far, I haven't been asked to issue a forecast, and I hope they don't. I could issue a forecast. I'm fully capable of projecting future performance by examining past trends, but is that really forecasting? In my opinion,…[READ MORE]