Archive for March, 2016

Homebuilders change their focus from move-up to entry-level buyers as sales wane in the move-up market and more Millennials buy entry-level homes. Homebulders typically provide product for all levels of the housing market. However, after the housing bust, most homebuilders completely abandoned the entry-level market, leaving this market segment vastly under served -- sort of. The main reason homebuilders quit building this product is because for many years, they couldn't sell it. The Great Recession forced many Millennials, the next generation of buyers, to live with their parents or rent an apartment because they couldn't earn enough money to pay of their sizable debts and save for a down payment. So while the need for entry-level housing was great, there…[READ MORE]

Conforming loan limits create intense buyer competition at under-limit prices and restrict home price increases need to bail out underwater borrowers. The FHA and the GSEs exist to provide subsidized mortgages to lower- and middle-income Americans. The conforming loan limit is put in place to limit the size of loans insured by the FHA and the GSEs to ensure these loans are targeted to the borrowers they're intended to subsidize. Prior to establishment of the FHA and later of the GSEs, lenders often wouldn't make home loans to lower-income Americans, or the cost of these loans was so high, lower-income borrowers couldn't afford it. The FHA and the GSEs succeeded in opening a market for these borrowers, and by bundling…[READ MORE]

IRVINE, Calif., March 1, 2016 – OC Housing News   Orange County Housing Market Report: March 2016 Historically, properties in this market sell at a 0.6% premium. Today's discount is 4.2%. This market is 4.8% undervalued. Median home price is $591,100 with a rental parity value of $625,700. This market's discount is $34,600. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 1 month(s). Momentum suggests unchanging affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis declined from $395/SF to $395/SF. Resale prices have been falling for 1 month(s). Over the last 12 months, resale prices rose 5.3% indicating a longer term upward price trend. Median rental rates declined $16 last month from $2,740 to $2,723. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is…[READ MORE]

We've all read stories about the challenges first-time homebuyers face in today's market. First-time homebuyer participation is hovering near 30-year lows, and showing little sign of improvement. Rather than describe the effects in another post, I thought it would be informative to share a real story from a real buyer who just completed their purchase. Enjoy. First time homebuyers are lacking in today’s housing market.  What does it take to buy a first home in coastal SoCal?  Why did a housing bear decide to purchase? Getting Ready To Buy. As a life-long renter, I shared the commonplace goal of home ownership.  There is a huge chasm between wanting and having.  Readying myself to be attractive to a lender was a…[READ MORE]

The populist revolt brewing is stronger than most realize, and Donald Trump taps into this populist anger better than any other candidate. With Donald Trumps wins in the Super Tuesday primaries, it's looking increasingly like he will be the Republican nominee in 2016. Today I repost the material from December 29, 2015. Though this was only two months ago, the difference in the political mood and understanding is dramatically different today. When I wrote this post, nobody gave Donald Trump a chance. Right now, many Republicans have resigned themselves to a Trump nomination and his crushing defeat in November. They too will be surprised as over the next few months as it becomes apparent that he can really win. That's…[READ MORE]

All delinquent borrowers living in properties worth less than the outstanding balance of the loan will be offered a loan modification in lieu of a foreclosure because the banks can't absorb the losses. Prior to the housing bust, lenders always foreclosed on delinquent borrowers — always. They had no incentive to kick the can with a loan modification because they could reclaim their capital and loan it to a borrower who would pay the full rate. Lenders only kicked the can when house prices fell and they could not recover the full amount through a foreclosure. Can-kicking is a policy of necessity. If lenders had foreclosed on all the delinquent mortgage squatters and liquidated the inventory, house prices would have…[READ MORE]

For the missing MLS inventory to return to the market, borrowers need debt forgiveness, and house prices need to move even higher. The financial media inundates us with stories about the "problem" of low MLS inventory that supposedly holds back first-time homebuyers, who are buying in near record low numbers. Whether or not this is a real problem or a fiction of the financial media depends on your point of view. Bankers don't consider low MLS inventory a problem; after all, bankers engineered the MLS shortage in order to drive up house prices to restore collateral value to the bad loans they made during the housing bubble. Homeowners are happy to go along for the ride. Neither bankers nor homeowners…[READ MORE]

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