Archive for May, 2015

Historically, properties in this market sell at a 25.7% discount. Today's discount is 35.3%. This market is 9.7% undervalued. Median home price is $263,500 with a rental parity value of $407,700. This market's discount is $144,200. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 8 month(s). Momentum suggests improving affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased from $172/SF to $173/SF. Resale prices have been rising for 2 month(s). Over the last 12 months, resale prices rose 4.4% indicating a longer term upward price trend. Median rental rates increased $11 last month from $1,752 to $1,764. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is 6.4%. Rents have been rising for 12 month(s). Price momentum signals rising rents over the next three…[READ MORE]

As attorneys prevail with their statutory claims, tens of thousands of delinquent mortgage squatters will be awarded free housing. Wouldn't it be great if you could stop paying your rent or your mortgage and continue to live in your property with no further payments? If I were given the choice between getting a house for nothing or putting a third of my income toward housing, I would probably take the free house. Wouldn't you? In 2008 many people faced this choice. The banks were so backlogged with foreclosures they couldn't process them fast enough, and with prices crashing, banks lost their desire to process foreclosures as well. The result was a large number of people who strategically defaulted and lived…[READ MORE]

Shortages of both residential and commercial supply forces workers and businesses to flee high-priced California markets for lower prices elsewhere. California house prices are very high because we endure a chronic shortages of housing. We aren't in a house price bubble because the two alternatives for obtaining housing, rent or ownership, balance. As long as the relationship between renting and owning is balanced, the market for both is as stable as the overall economy. The weakness in this analysis is that it assumes either renting or owning is affordable, but if neither one is affordable relative to incomes, the market can be very unaffordable despite the balance between ownership costs and rent. I wrote that chronic shortages of housing supply…[READ MORE]

Homebuilding needs many new jobs with high pay to create demand for more housing units. Homebuilding usually leads the economy out of recession. The Great Recession did not end with a building boom largely because of overbuilding during the housing bubble. A false price signal triggered excessive homebuilding, and it took five years to work off the inventories. The collapse of the housing bubble saw new home sales and construction fall to the lowest levels ever recorded — and those records go back to the 1960s. To make matters worse, rather than experiencing a sudden drop and a “V” bottom leading to a new boom, new home sales flat-lined at record lows for seven straight years. This basically wiped out…[READ MORE]

More borrowers qualify of down payment requirements are low, but those buyers are weaker, so the housing market is less stable. Large down payments are the bedrock of the housing market because large down payments preserve home ownership, reduce volatility in the market, and reduce the risk to our financial system. The only people who oppose them are realtors and originate-to-sell lenders who see down payments as an impediment to profits and left-wing housing advocates who see down payments as a barrier to putting unqualified borrowers into houses. Down payments preserve home ownership because people who’ve put down large down payments rarely default. In purely economics terms, people shouldn’t consider sunk costs like down payments in their decision making; however,…[READ MORE]

Only the National Association of realtors could come up with something this stupid, this ironic, this hypocritical: they hired an actress to pretend she is realtor in order to convince us that realtors are "real." Elizabeth Banks Tries To Put The ‘Real’ In Real Estate For Realtor.com May 15, 2015 Realtor.com is getting more competitive as they launched their biggest promotional campaign to date. On Tuesday, during the Realtors Legislative Meetings Trade & Expo held in Washington D.C., the real estate brand publicly announced their new logo, branding, and national consumer ad campaign which features a prominent Hollywood personality — film star Elizabeth Banks. In his key note speech, Move (realtor.com’s parent company) CEO Ryan O’Hara explicated this aggressive campaign.…[READ MORE]

I am offering one or more property for sale from my Las Vegas property fund. I want to buy these properties myself, but the GSEs will not fund a non-arm's length transaction for an investment property, so I must sell them. However, I will offer to buy back any of these properties personally for full purchase price after 90 days if any buyer is not satisfied. Las Vegas is still 40% below the peak, so restricted inventory will persist for quite a while, making for above average appreciation. The returns stated below are cash returns that do not reflect the likely 5%+ appreciation in this market over the next several years. The details are as follows: 3532 Diamond Belle Ct.,…[READ MORE]

Historically, properties in this market sell at a 18.5% discount. Today's discount is 24.9%. This market is 6.3% undervalued. Median home price is $294,800 with a rental parity value of $392,900. This market's discount is $98,100. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 7 month(s). Momentum suggests improving affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased from $166/SF to $168/SF. Resale prices have been rising for 2 month(s). Over the last 12 months, resale prices rose 4.2% indicating a longer term upward price trend. Median rental rates increased $8 last month from $1,691 to $1,700. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is 5.5%. Rents have been rising for 11 month(s). Price momentum signals rising rents over the next three…[READ MORE]

If mortgage rates are allowed to rise, the spring 2015 housing rally will be canceled. Back in February of 2013 when mortgage rates were near record lows, I wrote that future housing markets would be very interest-rate sensitive, despite assurances to the contrary from most macro-economists. The prevailing economic view is that the housing market would respond positively regardless of what happens with mortgage rates because house prices in the past have correlated poorly with mortgage rates. For example, during the 1970s, interest rates rose significantly, which should have caused house prices to drop, but instead California inflated a housing bubble. During the crash from the bubbles in the 1990s and the 2000s, interest rates declined, and so did prices.…[READ MORE]

Low or falling mortgage interest rates are better for housing costs than high or rising rates. From a consumers point of view, higher interest rates are bad because borrowing money becomes more expensive. All things being equal, higher mortgage interest rates make for a higher cost of ownership and visa versa. When actively looking to purchase a home, shopping around for the lowest rate can save thousands of dollars over the life of the loan. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau launched a Rate Checker to help consumers verify if the rate they are quoted is good or not. Since rising mortgage interest rates makes borrowing more expensive, it's also detrimental to home prices, so nobody in real estate relishes the…[READ MORE]

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