Archive for April, 2015

Rather than being priced out forever, the real risk in today's housing market is getting priced in for a very long time. Since lenders learned to can-kick their way out of any bout of irresponsible lending, they created a new phenomenon in modern real estate: priced-in forever. In a bygone era prior to the housing bubble, it was nearly impossible to be priced-in to your home for very long. Adequate down payment requirements coupled with stable and steadily rising prices made it unlikely a homeowner would ever be unable to sell and pay off the mortgage. If a borrower became financially distressed and started missing mortgage payments, either they would sell voluntarily, or the lender would foreclose to force a…[READ MORE]

Buyers can't be priced out forever, but many potential buyers can be priced out for long periods of time. Buy Now or Be Priced Out Forever! Does everyone remember that refrain from realtors during the housing bubble? It's not as effective of a sales tactic as it used to be, but some agents still use it. When prices rise faster than their wages, people can obtain less real estate with their income, so there is a natural tendency for people to react with urgency because they don't want to be forced to accept lower quality accommodations later on. When people react to the fear of being priced out, they often act irrationally and buy whatever is available, and in their…[READ MORE]

High degree of market overvaluation suggests for the foreseeable future house prices will appreciate far less than the average of the last 40 years. My favorite measure of value for individual properties and the entire market is the ratio of rent to home ownership cost. I prefer this method because it incorporates the effect of mortgage rates and more closely emulates the conditions people face when they decide whether to rent or own. Another method economists examine is the ratio of price to rent. It's a blunt instrument because it doesn't capture the impact of mortgage rates, but demonstrates the imbalances and distortions caused by record-low mortgage rates. Home shoppers today are right to be concerned about another housing bubble.…[READ MORE]

Your house is only worth what your buyer can pay for it. Your take-out buyer must be leveraged more aggressively than you are. One of my earliest posts in May of 2007 was about the impact future loan terms have on future home prices. If interest rates go on a sustained rise, financing home purchases will become more expensive. That is the math. Unfortunately, most people don't realize this has implications for how much they will be able to sell their house for later on. Most people assume whatever trend was in place in the past will continue indefinitely. Even long-term trends like generally rising home prices for several decades may be the result of underlying factors like falling mortgage…[READ MORE]

Nixon’s Western White House Is Listed for $75 Million San Clemente estate is owned by onetime volunteer gardener, Allergan founder Gavin Herbert By Candace Jackson, April 1, 2015 1:52 p.m. ET For Gavin Herbert, the retired founder and CEO of Allergan—the nearly $70 billion pharmaceuticals company—it was a lifelong love of gardening that led to his ownership of one of Southern California’s most storied and valuable coastal properties: President Richard Nixon’s so-called Western White House. Now, it will hit the market for $75 million. Mr. Herbert, 83, is selling the estate after 35 years of ownership and is looking for a buyer who will continue to care for the property. The 5.5-acre estate in San Clemente, Calif., has more than…[READ MORE]

Many underwater homeowners face recasting and resetting second mortgages and HELOCs. Their options limited, most will be stuck paying off these debts. One of the most obvious signs of the housing bubble was the willingness of buyers to purchase properties where rents only covered a small portion of the total cost of ownership. Speculators ignore the costs because they plan to make a fortune on appreciation; investors focus on carrying costs and consider appreciation a bonus. Speculators bought houses from 2004-2006; investors did not. One of the primary goals of the property analysis system on this site was to prevent a recurrence of the foolish behavior witnessed during the housing bubble. Everyone who buys a property should know the consequences…[READ MORE]

Millennials must pay off their debts and save for a down payment in a difficult job environment or they will never become homeowners. Historically, people who rent their primary residences break down into two categories: (1) those who value freedom, and (2) those who don't have the financial discipline to save for a down payment. Those who value their freedom to pursue job opportunities or other reasons should not anchor themselves to a piece of real estate. At some point their life circumstances may change, and they may wish to become homeowners, but until that change happens naturally, they will remain renters. During the housing bubble, lenders and politicians on the left believed they found a panacea with 100% financing…[READ MORE]

The benefits of using home equity lines of credit are large, and the costs are minimal. Get your free money today! If someone offered you free money, would you take it? If you didn't suspect a hidden agenda, I believe you would. Most people would accept financial help from family or friends because people who give gain tremendous emotional benefits from giving. It's incumbent on everyone to gracefully accept any gift offered to them because it pleases the givers. Ten years ago, lenders embarked on the biggest gift program of all time when they began making "loans" to people who had no ability or inclination to pay them back. The recipients of these gifts, affectionately known as Ponzis, accepted this…[READ MORE]

Monthly Housing Report

In Memoriam: Tony Bliss 1966-2012